NFC South Preview

 

We're headed down to the NFC South for this week's divisional preview. I expect this to be the most competitive division, with none of the four teams really being anything special or horrible...just a whole lot of mediocrity surrounding a few cornerstone guys. Take a look back to last season to get an idea of what I'm talking about: three 7-10 squads with the champs only managing to go 8-9. Impeccably average. Let's head to the ATL

Atlanta Falcons

Busy offseason for the Dirty Birds in free agency, attempting to upgrade talent and depth at a bunch of positions. Taylor Heinicke was the first of those interesting additions, as it's been made publicly clear that he'll be the back up to Desmond Ridder. While I think Heinicke has the type of professionalism to not make that an awkward relationship, I'm not 100% convinced Ridder has the talent to hold the former Commander off all seventeen games. The QB rarely hurt the team during his four starts as a rookie, but his numbers certainly didn't lock down the job long-term. Big year ahead him.

I adamantly did not like the Bijan Robinson pick at draft time, and still think they could've benefited from many other selections at eight, but he's set to be an absolute workhorse this season, in the run and pass game. Bijan's looked as advertised in camp and preseason action thus far, should be one of the more exciting players in the league. Cordarrelle Patterson and Tyler Allgeier round out the rest of a strong trio in the backfield.

Drake London's a guy who seems set for a boom too, after accumulating 333 receiving yards with Ridder under center-- good for 38% of his season total. A full offseason together should only help their chemistry. Mack Hollins and Scotty Miller, while modest names, probably boost the receiving room's overall talent level from '22-23, which'll help London too. Kyle Pitts though man...the real wild card. He had a good rookie campaign before taking a step back last year with iffy quarterback play and injuries. If he can step up and provide a Kelce/Andrews like prescence to this offense, it'll be a substantial help. Just not sure I'm a believer.

Calais Campbell, Jeff Okudah, Jessie Bates and David Onyemata all came over in free agency to help out a defense that just allowed the sixth most total yards in the league. Clearly help was needed on all levels of the defense, so it's an effort worth appreciating. It's always hard to tell though how units gel when you're changing up this many pieces at the same time, but this should be a scrappy bunch down in Atlanta.

Synopsis/Predictions

This team won an unlikely seven games a year ago and undeniably improved this offseason. This is a weak division and Arthur Smith seems like he's got the attention of everyone in the room. I think they're going to surprise a few teams this year with a smash mouth style of play and as much defense as they can muster.

-Despite rumbles during some cold stretches, Smith shows trust in Desmond Ridder as his starter, riding him to a home playoff appearance

-Bijan Robinson totals over 1,700 rushing/receiving yards + double digit touchdowns en route to winning Offensive Rookie of the Year

-The D jumps into the top half of the rankings in yards allowed

Carolina Panthers

With the number one pick in the NFL Draft... What an exciting, franchise-altering last couple of months it's been down in Charlotte with the addition of Alabama's Bryce Young at quarterback. Unfortunately, the buzz has been quickly quelled during the last two preseason games where the rookie has been running for his life behind a porous offensive line. He went 7/12 for 56 yards as a result of the pressure, albeit in small sample. A development worth keeping an eye on though.

He'll be working with a very retooled group of weapons on offense, with D'Onta Foreman and DJ Moore being replaced by Miles Sanders, Adam Thielen and DJ Chark. The Panthers will definitely miss their long time WR1, but they did alright all considered in attempting to replace him. Expect rookie Johnathan Mingo to get some burn out wide as well. Fellow free agent signee Hayden Hurst should be a perfect fit as a checkdown guy for Young all year.

Kind of a slept on defensive unit in Carolina! Brian Burns is very, very good-- fresh off a career high 12.5 sacks. He could explode this season as he reaches the end of his rookie contract. Frankie Luvu and Shaq Thompson were a great linebacking duo that just got better with veteran Justin Houston coming to town. And Jaycee Horn is one of the more exciting young corners in the game too, leading a pretty deep secondary. Could end up being a sneaky top ten group.

Synopsis/Predictions

I don't think it's any bit of an overreaction to be concerned about this team's offensive line. Luckily the NFC South isn't stacked with game wreckers in the defensive trenches, so they'll be able to mask the problem for at least six weeks. But it could really limit the ceiling of both the team and their rookie quarterback; we'll see if Reich adjusts the offense accordingly to get the ball out quick and move the pocket.

This is a good defense though and a solid roster overall. If the quarterback play isn't a complete cesspool, they'll be in the game every week.

-Bryce Young struggles most of the season, but does show enough flashes to foster optimism. I'll guess 19 touchdowns and 13 interceptions

-Adam Thielen has difficulty filling DJ Moore's shoes as the top receiver on a team, failing to eclipse 10 YPC for the first time in his career

-Brian Burns has over 15 sacks and is a legitimate Defensive Player of the Year candidate 

New Orleans Saints

I really want to like the Saints. Kamara's a force, apparently on the field as well as in the elevator. He may actually benefit long term from a little less tread on the tires due to his three game suspension. Jamaal Williams is a great complement to him however. 

Chris Olave was my pick for 2022 Rookie of the Year and nearly delivered, snagging 72 catches for 1,042 yards with really shaky quarterback play. If* Michael Thomas can stay healthy this season, they're a really good tandem. If. Throw in a speed demon like Rashid Shaheed and a steady tight end in Juwan Johnson, and this is a pretty okay group.

But Derek Carr, the man just isn't a winner in my eyes. I've watched enough of him with the Raiders to truly believe he can't be the guy to elevate a team to greater levels. He's certainly an upgrade on Andy Dalton and Jameis Winston, but I think a first round playoff exit is his ceiling.

Dennis Allen can coach up a defense though, as evidenced by their top five finish in yards allowed a year ago. Cam Jordan just extended his deal with the team, essentially making him a Saint for life. We wouldn't have it any other way. Marshon Lattimore's still lockdown and Marcus Maye and Tyrann Mathieu are really solid over the top. Like Carolina, not a lot of star power on this side of the ball, but some men who can really play their positions.

Synopsis/Predictions

There's too much talent across the board for the Saints to truly suck, almost regardless of who's under center, as we saw a year ago. I think they'll be in most games due to their very good defense, but the offense will be too inconsistent to take the team far. They're going to be great some weeks, with Chris Olave and Alvin Kamara earning their bread, but Carr's going to sputter a bit too often, putting them in precarious spots.

-Alvin Kamara surpasses his 2022 total yardage (1,387) despite the three game suspension

-Chris Olave clears 90 receptions and has eight or more touchdowns

-Marcus Maye has five interceptions, nearly doubling his career total

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

When I think of the guy I want succeeding Tom Brady for my franchise, Baker Mayfield isn't exactly near the top of the list. An unfortunate position for a franchise to find itself in, but here we are Buccaneers fans.

Rachaad White is a pretty solid lead back behind Mayfield, he'll definitely help pace this offense as Chase Edmonds and Ke'Shawn Vaughn break up the third down work. Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are two elite wideouts who'd even help me to some competent passing numbers. Not much behind them though.

Devin White's trade request, although recanted, surely looms large over Tampa's defensive group. He's the heart and soul of a defense that's a bit pedestrian otherwise, and I'm curious where his head would be at if they start badly out the gate. Shaq Barrett should get his in the pass rush, Vita Vea's going to stuff some runners and rookie Calijah Kancey could also be incredibly disruptive when he returns from injury, so there's plenty to like on the line here. But they're going to need it all and more with such a shaky secondary behind them.

Synopsis/Predictions

Baker should be okay for much of the season, but I think they'll let Trask show what he's capable of before it's all said and done. Seemed like morale was low on this team last year as the good times winded down with Brady at QB and that there isn't a ton of positive vibes for the season ahead. But that's just my take as an outsider, so we'll see.

-Kyle Trask takes over for Baker Mayfield at some point during the season, not due to an injury

-Rachaad White has over 900 yards on the ground, being heavily featured in an offense trying to minimize it's quarterbacks' deficiencies 

-The Bucs finish in the top eight for team sacks on the year

Wrap Up

Tough call here, as I could reasonably make an argument for every member of this division, but I'm going to take the Atlanta Falcons to steal the NFC South in an underwhelming yet exciting race. New Orleans and Carolina shouldn't be far behind, nor should Tampa--who I have finishing last of the four-- but I'll take Arthur Smith to make the most out of Falcons' offense.

Let me know what y'all think!

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@Choppinglines

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