We've reached our fourth and final AFC preview with the South. While most pundits would declare this to be the least competitive of the AFC divisions, there are still a ton of interesting developments to keep an eye on with this group, including three rookie quarterbacks in the mix to start, two first time head coaches, a former #1 pick finding his footing and more.
We'll head down to H-Town to start things off with the...
Houston Texans
Two of the top three picks from the recent NFL draft went to the Houston. CJ Stroud and Will Anderson are being viewed as cornerstones for this team for the next decade plus, after the Texans went QB with their original selection at #2 before aggressively moving up with Arizona to take the edge rusher at three. It was a sexy, confident move by a franchise that's been anything but throughout majority of it's re-existence.
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| Photo: Texans Wire |
Stroud joins breakout running back Dameon Pierce in what could end up being a decent offense. The pass catching core of Robert Woods, Nico Collins, John Metchie, Tank Dell plus former Cowboys Noah Brown and Dalton Schultz is at least a respectable bunch that should be able to take advantage of some iffy cornerback play within the division. GM Nick Caserio also worked hard over the last few months to lock up the starting offensive line for the next 3+ years, which should give this whole unit a fair opportunity to grow together.
On the flip side of the ball, Anderson drawing consistent double teams should help Sheldon Rankins' and Jerry Hughes to get some favorable matchups in pursuit of opposing quarterbacks. Denzel Perryman, Christian Kirksey and Cory Littleton at linebacker will have some success stopping the run, but should be super exploitable through the air. Luckily for them, Derek Stingley Jr. and Jalen Pitre are part of a young, underrated secondary backing them up. Unfortunately, that group isn't a very deep one.
Synopsis/Predictions
I think Houston is a really sneaky team, so much so that I currently have them finishing second in the AFC South. Obviously, they'll live and die with their quarterback play, but there's actually enough talent on this roster to be scrappy if CJ Stroud can just not be Zach Wilson-esque. Demeco Ryans seems like a strong hire for head coach; looking forward to seeing what he can do with some of the young pieces they have on defense.
-Dameon Pierce has over 1,200 yards rushing and double digit touchdowns
-Nico Collins leads the team in receiving yards, just edging out John Metchie III
-Jerry Hughes has more sacks than Will Anderson, with the duo totaling 16+
Indianapolis Colts
Roller coaster of an offseason for the Colts. Things started high with the exciting hiring of Shane Steichen from the Philadelphia Eagles' staff as their new head coach, followed by selecting the electric Anthony Richardson fourth overall to ideally become the franchise quarterback. A rebuild still, sure, but some optimism surrounding it.
The last two weeks or so have been clouded due to Jonathan Taylor's trade request after a discussion with owner Jim Irsay about a contract extension was not well received. The star running back was subsequently placed on the NFI list, with a mysterious back injury he wasn't even aware of. I'd be willing to bet that JT will ultimately suit up for Indy this season, but it won't be without adversity. It'll likely be his final go round with the team as well, as he's on an expiring contract and seemingly very unlikely to resign. But money talks, and stranger things have happened.
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| Photo: Zach Bolinger/ Icon Sportswire |
Michael Pittman Jr. is the head honcho of the receivers, but Alec Pierce showed that he can make some plays last year, and rookie Josh Downs appears to be a perfect fit in the slot between the two. Some real potential with that trio. For my Ravens fans out there, Breshad Perriman is also a part of this room, due for a boom play here and there to flash why he was a first rounder. Don't expect it often though.
Circling back to the rookie quarterback, he's still currently listed behind Gardner Minshew on the ESPN depth chart. Admittedly, the former Florida Gator was very raw going into the draft, but was armed with salivating physical tools, that have already been raved about in camp, and were impossible to ignore in the pre-draft process. He will start most of, if not the entire '23-24 campaign for Indianapolis, flashing sparingly with his arm and legs while making plenty of mistakes. Love Steichen as a fit to be able to get the most out of him however.
Lower expectations from the defense however. Kwity Paye and DeForest Buckner are pretty stout on the defensive line, and I like Grover Stewart as well, but there's a ton of question marks behind them. What kind of form will middle linebacker Shaquille Leonard return to after missing fourteen games a year ago? If he's anywhere near 100%, it'll be a monumental boost for this group.
The secondary seems to have a pretty bleak outlook overall. Trading Stephon Gilmore to Dallas in March left them with Kenny Moore II as their CB1. While Moore's certainly no scrub, he's not who you want facing the top wideouts each week. Juju Brents is a really interesting rookie out of LSU that's currently slated to start opposite of him; his development will really impact this group's ceiling. Not a lot of quality depth behind the two or at safety, so expect to see offenses feast through the air against Indy this season.
Synopsis/Predictions
Offensively, Indianapolis is a real wild card. If Richardson takes to the new system well, there's more than enough talent around him to have this be a dangerous and multi-faceted attack. Big 'If' of course, but they're seemingly taking the proper and patient approach to his development. Not thinking the defense is going to factor positively into many wins, though Buckner can be a game wrecker against weak interior lines.
-Anthony Richardson and Jonathan Taylor combine for over 2,000 rushing yards
-Josh Downs has 60+ receptions, good for second on the team
-Kwity Paye racks up double digit sacks for the first time in his career
Jacksonville Jaguars
Sunday, December 4th, 2022: Jacksonville had just gotten smoked 40-14 in Detroit to fall to 4-8 on the year. With a calm, sophomore quarterback and experienced coach not named Urban Meyer at the helm, the team went on to win their final five games to beat out Tennessee for the AFC South crown. A week later, they'd overcome a 27-0 lead to defeat the Chargers in Duval for their first playoff win since 2018.
Even after falling the following week to the eventual Super Bowl champions, there was a ton of buzz surrounding the Jaguars, that has yet to subside. Trevor Lawrence clicked in Doug Pederson's offense that's now adding Calvin Ridley to the mix of Christian Kirk, Zay Jones and Evan Engram. A lot of mouths to feed in the passing game-- good problem for Lawrence, tough one for fantasy managers.
Travis Etienne Jr. is the clear cut lead dog in this backfield, with an enticing three-down skill set that'll make him hard to take out of the game. Rookie Tank Bigsby will be his backup on the early downs, with JaMycal Hasty stealing some work from Etienne on third.
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| Photo: Douglas DeFelice/ USA Today |
Fellow rookie Anton Harrison looks to be penciled into the starting left tackle role after incumbent Cam Robinson was suspended for the first four games due to PED's. When the two eventually get on the field together, they'll make for solid bookends on this offensive line. Brandon Scherff is a nice player on the interior, and depth pieces Coy Cronk and Tyler Shatney have awesome names.
The defense is headlined by edge rushers Travon Walker and Josh Allen. While they only combined for 10.5 sacks in '22-23, there's immense upside between the two that would elevate this unit if realized. Devin Lloyd appears to be a pretty good middle linebacker too. But the cornerback and safety play is questionable at best, especially after making no significant offseason moves to upgrade the group that allowed the fifth most passing yards per game a year ago.
Synopsis/Predictions
While the offense is built to hang in shootouts, it'll be the secondary that ultimately is the Achilles' heel for Jacksonville. T-Law and company will put up big numbers, and I think Etienne could be a sneaky top fantasy back, but will they be able to do it every week?
-Trevor Lawrence throws for over 4,500 passing yards and 30 touchdowns
-Travis Etienne Jr. racks up over 1,800 total yards and double digit scores
-The Jaguars have three 1,000 yard pass catchers
Tennessee Titans
Our final team in the AFC, the Tennessee Titans. We'll address the elephant in the room, or at least the three of them.
Between Ryan Tannehill, Malik Willis and Will Levis, there's a real variety of skill sets competing for the QB1 spot. Tannehill is probably the safest, but clearly on the back nine of his career. Willis was deemed so developmental toward the end of last season that the team brought in Josh Dobbs to start crucial games on short notice. Reports surrounding the Liberty quarterback have been really positive through training camp however. The strong arm, prototypical Levis looks the part, but trickled to the second round for reasons numerous other organizations clearly agree upon. A fun battle to watch here as the preseason unfolds.
Derrick Henry is obviously the train that's going to make this offense go, but he'll have some legit help on the outside this year, with Deandre Hopkins pairing up with Treylon Burks at wideout. After an oddly stagnant free agency period, I am curious how much Nuk has left in the tank. It certainly feels like this isn't the best fit for him in terms of pass-happiness, but he has looked good in camp from clips and reports, so we'll give it a chance. Chigoziem Okonkwo is a bright, young tight end to keep an eye on too after emerging late last season.
Absolutely love this Titans' defensive line. Jeffery Simmons is a game wrecker, Harold Landry's coming off a 12 sack campaign, plus Denico Autry and Arden Key...imposing group right there. Kevin Byard is an excellent safety locking down the back end too, freshly inked to a healthy, team-friendly extension that'll keep him happy and in town.
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| Photo: NFL.com |
A lot of question marks outside of that though. Early draft picks on corners like Kristian Fulton, Caleb Farley and Elijah Molden have yet to really bear fruit for the secondary. Maybe one will step up this season, or this year's version Roger McCreary could be a hit. Given Tennessee's track record with the position though, don't count on it.
Synopsis/Predictions
You never want to have uncertainty under center, which is a glaring red flag when considering how good this Tennessee team is going to be. I do think Tannehill will get the rock at first, but for how long remains to be seen. He missed five games last season while posting his lowest QBR as a member of the Titans. It really feels like Deandre Hopkins had some shitty offers on the table if this is where he ended up...
Mike Vrabel's a good coach though, and there's enough talent on this team to steal some games this season, especially in a division as bad as the AFC South. I don't expect them near playoff contention however.
-All three quarterbacks start at some point this season
-Treylon Burks has more receptions than Deandre Hopkins, but less touchdowns
-Arden Key breaks a personal record and records 9+ sacks as a part of this ferocious pass rush
Wrap Up
The South is 100% Jacksonville's to lose. While they're not without their own flaws, their strengths will be incredibly difficult for the other three teams in the division to stop. They've got a really favorable schedule as well, so much so that I think the #1 seed is a realistic possibility, as wild as it is to say. We'll see!
Texans finish second, Titans third and Colts at the bottom, as they continue to reset. Let us know what you think
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@Choppinglines
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