Between Stefon Diggs' discontent, the Dolphins' splash trades, Bill Belichick and Aaron Rodgers, I'm not sure there was a division in the headlines more frequently this summer. The AFC East is pretty stacked top to bottom, with no easy out in the bunch. Plenty of questions to be answered though as the season approaches.
We'll kick things off with the three-time defending divisional champs...
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| Photo: Ashley Landis/ AP |
Buffalo Bills
This franchise has really been rejuvenated since the arrival of Joshua P. Allen in 2018, going 53-28 over the five year span-- including four consecutive postseason berths. Those AFC Easts' were much less competitive than this year's version is going to be though, so their star quarterback is going to need to clean things up to keep the Bills on top. He had 14 interceptions last season, the second highest amount he's accrued during his tenure, in addition to eight fumbles (two lost). A little looser with the ball than one would like.
Second year man James Cook will be in the lead dog in the backfield, with Devin Singletary signing with the Texans this offseason. The former Georgia Bulldog came on strong down the final stretch of his rookie campaign, creating plenty of optimism for a productive encore. He has a three down skillset to really thrive in this offense. Diggs is the clear cut WR1 in an otherwise underwhelming group of receivers. He'll want Gabriel Davis to make the leap that he was supposed to make a year ago to help take some of the focus off of him outside. Dawson Knox is a solid tight end, who should pair very nicely with first round pick Dalton Kincaid to snag some balls over the middle.
Buffalo's defense is a talented group as well, boasting a line littered with former first round picks in Von Miller, Greg Rousseau and Ed Oliver. Throw in second rounder AJ Epenesa, and DC Leslie Frazier should have a ton of flexibility for blitzes and sub-packages. The secondary is a potentially elite unit as well, with Tre'Davious White and Kaiir Elam at corner and All-Pro safeties Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde over the top. Definitely a good mix of youth and veteran talent.
Synopsis/Predictions
The Bills do have a very young nucleus of stars, but this does feel like their "final push" with this collective team. They've come up just short of the Super Bowl over the last three seasons, falling in the AFC Championship in 2020 and the divisional round the last two years. Can Josh Allen win the big game? Just how good is this roster top to bottom? And is this coaching staff the one to get it done, because they've had some blunders and mismanagement in recent history as well.
-James Cook tallies over 1,200 all-purpose yards and 8+ touchdowns
-Dalton Kincaid has more receptions than Dawson Knox
-Offensive Coordinator Ken Dorsey gets fired midseason
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| Photo: Jim Rassol/ Palm Beach Post |
Miami Dolphins
Down to South Beach we go, where the Dolphins have the fastest duo at wide receiver in the whole NFL. Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle combined for an obscene 3,066 yards in '22-23 and are fully capable of running back those video game-like numbers again. As with any team however, the health of their quarterback Tua Tagovailoa will have a massive impact on that after the southpaw suffered at least two sizeable concussions a year ago, causing him to miss four games. With his long-term health in mind, let's hope he's 110% in that department prior to returning to action.
The Miami backfield is an interesting group, "headlined" by Raheem Mostert, but also featuring Jeff Wilson Jr., Myles Gaskin and newcomer Devon Achane. Former 49ers teammates Mostert and Wilson offer everything you want from a running back and should be steady contributors all season. But the rookie Achane from Texas A&M is the real game breaker of the group. He offers a versatile skill set and is lightning quick in with the ball in his hands-- honestly reminiscent of Alvin Kamara. Stash him in dynasty and keep an eye on him in redraft leagues.
Big story surrounding the defense is the health of superstar corner Jalen Ramsey. The marquee trade acquisition injured his knee last Thursday in training camp and underwent surgery to repair the damage this week, with his return to come no earlier than December. As a result, Eli Apple was recently brought in to compete with rookie Cam Smith for the newly vacant position opposite of Xavien Howard. DeShon Elliott should be a fun partner to Jevon Holland at safety, if he can avoid the major injuries that have unfortunately plagued his career thus far.
Christian Wilkins is a monster on the defensive line, Emmanuel Ogbah is rock solid and Jaelen Phillips really emerged on the edge in '22-23. Throw in last year's trade deadline pickup in Bradley Chubb and you've got some dogs in the trenches who are going to constantly disrupt some pockets. A good defense on all three levels.
Synopsis/Predictions
As mentioned above, Tua's health is the main thing this team's success will ride on. I don't expect him in MVP discussions anytime soon, but he gets the ball into Miami's weapons' hands and puts them in position to win games-- much more so than backups Mike White or Skylar Thompson would. A truly loaded roster with Super Bowl aspirations that aren't the most far fetched.
-Jaylen Waddle will snag 10+ TDs for the first time in his career
-Devon Achane notches at least five receiving touchdowns, emerging as a pass catching threat from the backfield
-Jaelen Phillips and Bradley Chubb each record double digit sacks
New England Patriots
Could Bill Belichick really be on the hot seat? There've been rumors surfacing recently that his job security may not be "untouchable" as it had been for much of the last twenty years. What a wild change that'd be to see another man donning the head set in New England.
The unfortunate thing for Bill is, this team isn't one of the best he's had to work with. Mac Jones showed flashes of good and bad last year-- including getting benched for Bailey Zappe at one point-- not really instilling much faith in his ability to elevate this team during the upcoming campaign. We'll see what year three has in store for the young QB.
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| Photo: Michael Dwyer/ AP |
Rhamondre Stevenson took over the RB1 spot after Damien Harris went down and never looked back, totaling almost 1,500 total yards and six touchdowns. There doesn't seem to be a ton of competition in the wings to steal those touches either, though Ty Montgomery and Pierre Strong Jr. could cut into some of his receiving production. Newcomer Juju Smith-Schuster and Davante Parker are a decent 1-2 on the outside, with Hunter Henry and Mike Gesicki being above average pass catchers at tight end. If Jones figures it out, he'll have some weapons to throw to.
On the opposite side of the ball, Matthew Judon is a top ten edge rusher that we can pencil in for double digit sacks this year. He and Deatrich Wise Jr. are an underrated duo. Excited to see what Christian Gonzalez can bring to this secondary. After many claimed he was the top corner in this most recent draft, the Oregon Duck trickled all the way down to New England at 17, turning into one of the steals of the first round. Should be a steady yet unspectacular group
Synopsis/Predictions
It just doesn't feel like this is the squad to win the East. They lack the top level quarterback play and explosiveness on offense to compete with teams like the Bills and Dolphins. There won't be many weeks that they get blown out, but if they fall into any holes early they simply don't seem equipped to battle back. Feels like they overachieved last year and are due for a dud, possibly inspiring a changing of the guard.
-Mac Jones will be benched at some point during the season
-Mike Gesicki has more receptions and touchdowns than Hunter Henry
-Christian Barmore supplants Davon Godchaux at nose tackle by the year's end
New York Jets
New York was almost unanimously the winners of the offseason, upgrading from maligned sophomore signal caller Zach Wilson to three-time MVP Aaron Rodgers. He joins an elite roster that were in playoff contention despite their bottom barrel quarterback play. Garrett Wilson is an absolute monster who'll command regular help to free up space for Allen Lazard and Corey Davis. Tyler Conklin and CJ Uzomah are decent at the tight end position too.
In the backfield, Breece Hall was a shoe in for the Offensive Rookie of the Year prior to his ACL tear. If he returns anywhere near 100%, he's going to be a problem. Michael Carter and Zonovan Knight are two guys that can get you some yards in a pinch too, plus there's rumors abound that Dalvin Cook may be joining the bunch. Could end being an even more dynamic group than their pass catchers.
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| Photo: Edward Diller/ Getty Images |
This Jets' defense has potential to be the top unit in the league. Quinnen Williams, fresh off of a new extension, is the definition of a game wrecker on the D line. Carl Lawson and John Franklin-Myers will benefit all season from the double and triple teams he draws. Sauce Gardner and DJ Reed may be the premier cornerback tandem in the league too. They surrendered the third most yards last season, but felt like they were just scratching the surface of their potential.
Synopsis/Predictions
I regularly spoke pretty low of Aaron Rodgers throughout last season, but I'll acknowledge that his shortcomings may have been a result of a subpar supporting cast. May. We'll find out though, as he'll now be working with one of the finest groups of skill players he ever has. Their defense kept them in games last year with much less on the offense, so I wouldn't be surprised if they actually improve.
-Rodgers at least partially bounces back, topping 4,000 passing yards and thirty touchdowns
-Garrett Wilson clears 100 receptions and 1,300 receiving yards
-Sauce Gardner will have two or more defensive touchdowns, but Jordan Whitehead will lead the team in interceptions
Wrap Up
It feels so trendy to pick New York to win the East, but I have a hard time thinking they don't at least make the playoffs. Buffalo has to feel like they've been hitting their heads against the ceiling for the last three years, either leading to a culminating success or meltdown. I'm leaning a little more toward the latter given some of the stories that've been coming out over the last few months. New England will be a nuisance, but not a threat. And Miami will be a sexy pick by many, with plenty of potential in their own right to steal the division. Can Tua physically hold up?
We'll find out! As of typing this, I've got the Jets taking the divisional title, with the Bills claiming a wild card spot. The Dolphins will miss out on postseason play by tie breakers and the Patriots will be under .500 for a second consecutive season.
Let me know what you think!
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@Choppinglines
*I own no rights to any images found in this blog
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