Crazy to think that we're half way through the MLB season already...what a year it's been though! So far 2023's featured a runaway MVP campaign, the 24th perfect game in baseball history, albeit it by a man who beats his wife, some absolutely electric prospects infusing the league and so much more. The second half is going to be a captivating one.
Logan Kurtz and myself collabed on some of the fun and disappointing storylines for y'all from the first half, as well as some updated predictions for major award winners and our playoff contenders. Enjoy the Home Run Derby and All-Star Game, because it's going to be a wild next two and a half months!
Division Standings:
AL East | AL Central | AL West | ||
1. Tampa Bay Rays (58-35) |
| 1. Cleveland Guardians (45-45) |
| 1. Texas Rangers (52-39) |
2. Baltimore Orioles (54-35) | | 2. Minnesota Twins (45-46) | | 2. Houston Astros (50-41) |
3. Toronto Blue Jays (50-41) | | 3. Detroit Tigers (39-50) | | 3. Seattle Mariners (45-44) |
4. New York Yankees (49-42) | | 4. Chicago White Sox (38-54) | | 4. Los Angeles Angels (45-46) |
5. Boston Red Sox (48-43) | 5. Kansas City Royals (26-55) | 5. Oakland Athletics (25-67) |
NL East | NL Central | NL West | ||
1. Atlanta Braves (60-29) |
| 1. Cincinnati Reds (50-41) |
| 1. LA Dodgers (51-38) |
2. Miami Marlins (53-39) | | 2. Milwaukee Brewers (49-42) | | 2. Arizona Diamondbacks (52-39) |
3. Philadelphia Phillies (48-41) | | 3. Chicago Cubs (42-47) | | 3. San Francisco Giants (49-41) |
4. New York Mets (42-48) | | 4. Pittsburgh Pirates (41-49) | | 4. San Diego Padres (43-47) |
5. Washington Nationals (36-54) | 5. St. Louis Cardinals (38-52) | 5. Colorado Rockies (34-57) |
Handling Business
Ted: The Atlanta Braves
I've been following the NL East a bit more thoroughly since bringing Kurtz on for the Phillies report. They've been on fire the last month...but every time I look at the standings, it seems like the Braves have won 9 out of their last 10 games. They've played so consistently well all season, culminating to a league leading 60 wins.
The crazy thing is, they're doing this without the 2022 Cy Young runner up Max Fried, who's been out since the beginning of May, and 21 game winner Kyle Wright. Spencer Strider, Charlie Morton and Bryce Elder have held the rotation down in their absence, en route to the second best ERA in the majors, but they'll surely welcome their ace back, after he recently completed a rehab start for AAA Gwinnett.
Offensively, Atlanta might be even more of a juggernaut. They have 20 more home runs than the second highest team, they're third in hits and third in RBI. There's no weakness on this roster. Matt Olson's doing his best to keep pace with Ohtani in the home run race, currently at 29, and Ronald Acuña Jr. seems to a shoo-in for the NL MVP with a .331/21/55 stat line...on top of 41 stolen bases. Best team in baseball.
On a personal side note: The Baltimore Orioles being 19 games above .500 is wild. We expected improvement but this season's been beyond anything we could've hoped for...and we're just now bringing up the young guns. Buckle up Birdland.
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| Photo: Jayne Kamin-Oncea/ USA Today |
Logan: Shohei Ohtani
In terms of team success, no one is living up to expectations more than the Atlanta Braves, but I will instead focus on an individual living up to the hype. What Shohei Ohtani has done in the first half of the season not just lives up to the hype, but exceeds what many fans thought was even possible. Ohtani would likely be the AL MVP on hitting stats alone, leading the American League in OPS (1.050) and home runs (32). He has a legitimate chance to win the triple crown, as he is only .021 points from the league lead in average and currently second in RBI.
Not to mention the fact that he is also an All-star pitcher with a 3.32 ERA and 132 strikeouts. He came into the season with a ton of hype, finally being recognized as the unicorn that he is and the consensus best player in baseball. The hype grew even further in March after leading Japan to a WBC title, but he has delivered on that hype and then some.
Biggest Surprise
Ted: The lack of competition for AL MVP
Shohei Ohtani has been very good on the mound this season, currently 7-4 with a 3.32 ERA and fourth in the league in strikeouts, but it's paled in comparison to his monstrous work at the dish. The two-way star's .302/32/71 line would be eye catching for a season, and we're just half way through.
What's craziest though is how locked down he currently has the award. As of publishing this, he's -750 to win on FanDuel, but has been as high as -1450! Anticipated competitors have been simply not been able to keep up. Aaron Judge and Yordan Alvarez have been dealing with injuries, while Wander Franco, Vlad Jr. and Adley Rutschman have merely been very good, not all-world. It feels like the Unicorn's second MVP is all but locked up.
Logan: The Arizona Diamondbacks
Prior to the season, many thought that the D-Backs would likely finish 4th in the NL West, maybe 3rd at best. As we reach the All-star break, they find themselves atop the NL West and ahead of the Dodgers with a 52-38 record and a .5 game lead. With their core of young talent, many thought the D-Backs were coming in a year or two, but they are here.
Biggest Disappointment
Ted: Tie between the St. Louis Cardinals and the San Diego Padres
The Cardinals probably can get a pass nationally because they're not some big payroll, loaded super team that's World Series or bust. I'm just particularly salty because I bet a nice chunk of money on them to win the sorry NL Central, that they're currently 12.5 out of first in...sitting at a pitiful 36-51 overall. There's still time for a run, but they've been pathetic. Only the A's, Royals and Nationals have less wins at home through the first half.
But the Padres...objectively have been a failure. Four games under .500 with a 1/4 of a billion dollars in contracts. Xander Bogaerts has modestly delivered at best in his first season since joining San Diego in free agency, while Manny Machado seems like he may be on the downslide of his career. Juan Soto...at least gets on base and Fernando Tatis Jr. has played well, when not suspended for PED's. The lineup, particularly those four, are the driving force for this team's failure, because it hasn't been the pitching-- who're currently fifth in the league in ERA. In a stacked NL West, expect the Pads to stay buried.
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| Photo: Jeff Roberson/ AP |
Logan: The St. Louis Cardinals
The consensus favorite to win the NL Central coming into the season, the Cardinals find themselves in last place in what many feel to be the weakest division in the National League. They have obviously been performing below their capabilities, as they enter the All-Star break with a 38-52 record and recently took another blow as Adam Wainwright heads to the injured list.
Favorite Storyline
Ted: Money Doesn't Buy Success
The top 5 payrolls this year belong to the Mets, Yankees, Padres, Phillies and Dodgers, in that order: $1.34 billion dollars in salary. All that spending has amounted to a modest cumulative record of 233-216 (.519)
The bottom 5 payrolls in baseball, excluding the A's who really didn't try to assemble a roster this season, have gone 248-205 (.547). Those teams are the Orioles, Rays, Guardians, Pirates, Reds, and combined their franchises are doling $373 million this year-- only $25 mil more than the Mets.
While the league will always have it's exorbitant spenders, particularly in our LA and New York markets, it's been shown pretty regularly over the last decade that a fat check book is not required to compete. These franchises are doing it in-house, and seem to have some bright futures ahead of them if they can retain some key pieces and continue their strong player development. Love the David's taking down the Goliath's.
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| Photo: Julio Aguilar/ Getty Images |
Logan: The Tampa Bay Rays
The Rays got off to an incredible start to the season and simply have just not gone away. They find themselves in first place with a 2 game lead in the AL East, what many consider to be the toughest division in baseball. They’ve done it the Rays way, with the third smallest payroll in all of baseball. They also have the most team home runs in the American League. If they wind up taking the division title at the end of the season, it would be an incredible story.
Major Award Predictions
Ted:
AL MVP: Shohei Ohtani
NL MVP: Matt Olson
AL Cy Young: Shane McClanahan
NL Cy Young: Zac Gallen
AL ROY: Masataka Yoshida
NL ROY: Corbin Carroll
Manager of the Year: Brandon Hyde
It'd take an injury or the greatest half-season ever to supplant Ohtani as the AL MVP. Matt Olson probably won't win the NL MVP, but he's the most productive player on the league's best team and I feel like he's more under the radar than he should be. Shane McClanahan is banged up right now but he was 11-1 with a 2.53 ERA before going on the IL, don't expect much of a fall off when he returns. Zac Gallen feels locked in as the National League Cy Young for the Diamondbacks, as does Corbin Carroll for NL Rookie of the Year. Masataka Yoshida has adjusted well to baseball across the Pacific, as one of the few bright spots for the Red Sox. And admittedly, Brandon Hyde is working with more talent then he ever has as the Orioles manager, but he's done so magnificently, en route to the third best record in baseball.
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| Photo: Tommy Gilligan/ USA Today |
Logan:
AL MVP: Shohei Ohtani
NL MVP: Ronald Acuña Jr.
AL Cy Young: Gerrit Cole
NL Cy Young: Spencer Strider
AL ROY: Masataka Yoshida
NL ROY: Corbin Carroll
Manager of the Year: Brandon Hyde
Ohtani and Acuña are essentially locks this year to take home each MVP award. The numbers that Acuña has put up thus far are insane, with a NL-leading .990 OPS, .331 BA, 21 home runs, and 41 stolen bases. Both Cy Young races are still up for grabs, and both Cole and Strider are not the current favorites. I expect them both to bring their ERAs closer to the league lead and with their massive strikeout numbers, it should get them the Cy Young awards by season's end.
Carroll in the NL is the heavy favorite as he is having a huge rookie campaign. There is an outside chance that Elly De La Cruz could catch Carroll if he were to miss time. De La Cruz currently doesn’t qualify having not played enough games yet. The AL is not as clear. I expect Yoshida to pass current favorite Josh Jung as he currently has a higher OPS (.874 compared to .835), has a much better batting average (.316 compared to .380), and should finish with over 20 homers (currently has 10).
Playoff Predictions
Ted:
AL Division Winners: Rays, Guardians, Rangers
AL Wildcard Teams: Orioles, Blue Jays, Astros
NL Division Winners: Braves, Reds, Diamondbacks
NL Wildcard Teams: Dodgers, Phillies, Marlins
The AL divisional picture is much more muddled than it was a month ago, with the Rays faltering some, Houston catching up to Texas and nobody wanting to win the Central. Can the Orioles catch Tampa? What should we expect from the Astros once Yordan Alvarez is back? Will the Central champ even have a record above .500? Should be a fun push to the postseason on all fronts.
On the NL side of things, the Braves feel safe to take the East, despite the Marlins and Phillies playing really well. I think all three make the postseason however. The Reds seem young and momentous, primed to beat out Milwaukee in the Central, but that division truly is wide open. The NL West is a surprising three horse race right now too, and I've got the up and coming D-Backs holding off LA for the division. Dodgers claim the top wild card slot while the perpetually overachieving Giants just can't keep up down the stretch.
Logan:
AL Division Winners: Orioles, Guardians, Astros
AL Wildcard Teams: Rays, Rangers, Yankees
NL Division Winners: Braves, Brewers, Dodgers
NL Wildcard Teams: Diamondbacks, Phillies, Reds
In the AL, the division winners will not be teams currently atop the standings (except for Cleveland who currently has a half game lead). As long as the Orioles aren’t bystanders at the deadline, they could win the AL East division title. Houston’s talent and experience will win them the division but the Rangers will stick around and make the playoffs.
I believe that the Yankees will make the wild card as their talent over the second half will come together, and adding Carlos Rodon to the rotation should prove very helpful down the stretch. The wild card is always difficult, as with my current projections I have the Blue Jays missing the playoffs, but they are a talented enough club to make a run as well.
In the NL, no one will be catching the Braves in the East. The Central and West winners will not be the current leaders either, as the Dodgers talent will help them surpass the D-Backs, and the Brewers pitching staff will give them the edge over the Reds. The D-backs will fade a little bit, but after adding some bullpen help will earn a wild card position. The Phillies will continue to play themselves into a wild card position on the strength of their bullpen, adding a starting pitcher, and returns to form from the likes of Trea Turner, Bryce Harper, and Aaron Nola. The Miami Marlins will regress and miss the playoffs, and the Reds will make the playoffs after adding some pitching at the deadline.
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@Choppinglines
*I own no rights to any images found in this blog
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