NFL free agency...one of my favorite times of the year. A few more decisions in the balance for Baltimore than usual, so I'll definitely be locked in. We have a nice mix of marquee names and intriguing lottery tickets for all 32 GM's to take into consideration. Let's get to know some of the names:
The Quarterbacks
Lamar Jackson, Daniel Jones, Geno Smith, Jimmy Garoppolo and now Derek Carr are going to be the big name quarterbacks theoretically available this offseason. It feels like Jones and Smith are in the best situations possible to maximize their talents and worth, so I have a hard time seeing either bolting for a different situation. Lamar though...is a big time question mark.
Reports seem to indicate that he and the Ravens are way, way off in their contract negotiations; news almost too pessimistic to stomach. Will they be able to close the gap in the coming weeks or will this be a classic tag and trade situation? The Texans, Lions and Seahawks each hold lucrative draft capital which could be dangled in front of Eric DeCosta to secure the dual-threat QB. There's certainly time for a dark horse team to emerge as well. Stay tuned Baltimore fans, ground-breaking decision on the horizon, wherever Jackson ends up.
Jimmy G will be coveted by many a QB-needy team. Atlanta, Tampa, New Orleans and Las Vegas all come right to mind, with the Jets and Panthers undoubtedly also toying with the idea. While Garoppolo isn't going to blow you away with his stats, he is a winner and solid game manager. The 31 year-old's going to get a handsome check, probably on a short-term deal as he enters quarterback purgatory. Too old to commit multiple years to but still well worth a kicking of the tires.
Former Raiders QB Derek Carr has joined the group this week as another wildcard. He'll surely be pursued by all of the teams above, sans Vegas of course. I could see the Titans sneaking into the conversation as well for the soon to be 32 year-old. Personally, would take Garoppolo over Carr, but both provide safe floors.
Javon Hargrave: After recording 14.5 sacks in four seasons for the Steelers, Hargrave moved across the state of Pennsylvania on a three year deal for the Eagles. He produced 23 sacks over the course of that contract, including a breakout 11 this year. Was he a beneficiary of a top defensive line or a foundational part of the unit? That'll be up to prospective teams to decide, but defensive tackles with the ability to rush the passer like Hargrave are few and far between. I anticipate a two year deal worth up to $39 mill, with Chicago being a more than willing suitor.
Orlando Brown: A mountain of a man who's seemingly had a hard time catching on anywhere. He's an elite right tackle and an above average LT who has demanded a premium contract for the position. The Chiefs, like the Ravens, have wisely called his bluff so far, but many teams would be willing to overpay for a true, quality offensive lineman on the open market. Tagging him again would run them about $20.4 million, a relative bargain considering what he could get. Given that it cost them a 1st round pick to acquire Brown, I'd be shocked if they don't at least tag/trade him.
Saquon Barkley: Easily one of the more interesting storylines we'll get from this free agency revolves around the top running back potentially available. Barkley had a really great season for the Giants, totaling 1,650 all-purpose yards and ten scores while, most importantly, staying healthy. Combine his injury history with the league's recent penchant of not spending top dollar in the backfield and I have a hard time seeing the Penn State alum getting the monumental contract he might be hoping for. Some sucker might pay up...but he'd probably be best suited to take what he can get from New York and continue to shine as the focal point of their offense. Arizona and Kansas City would be fun hypothetical landing spots.
Chauncy Gardner-Johnson: What a steal of a trade this was for Howie Roseman...taking Gardner-Johnson off of the Saints' hands for a fifth and sixth round pick. He was rewarded with the corner-turned-safety leading the league in interceptions while playing over top on arguably the best defense. Absolute coup. Now that CGJ is in the final year of his rookie deal, it's time for the Eagles' GM to decide who to extend between him and the following player on our list. Factor in the ages of each, and we see Gardner-Johnson remaining in the City of Brotherly Love for the foreseeable future.
James Bradberry: Speaking of Eagles...what a talent to stumble into after Bradberry was released by their rival Giants right before training camp. The cornerback had a season of vengeance in Philly, recording three interceptions while ranking third in the league in pass break ups-- earning second team All-Pro honors. He's definitely going to receive a premium contract in a new city on the open market. Cincinnati and Baltimore would each have slots for him to slide right in, depending how they address their quarterback extensions.
Daron Payne: The former first round pick from Alabama had a career season in our nation's capital, nearly doubling his career sacks on a defense that improved substantially as the year went on. Washington's quality depth on the D-Line has made his talent expendable, much to the happiness of many. The Bears and Lions are each very interesting fits, particularly Detroit. Payne and Hutchinson would be a nightmarish tandem for the foreseeable future.
Jessie Bates III: The clock on Bates' tenure in Cincy began ticking the minute Dax Hill was selected with the 31st pick of the most recent draft. Despite the investment at the position, the Bengals kept him around on the franchise tag to shore up their secondary as they made another playoff run. With some massive names on offense to extend soon, Bates will be donning a new jersey next season. The Falcons, Patriots and Colts would benefit from his addition.
Mike McGlinchey: It seems likely that Orlando Brown Jr. will get tagged, setting up McGlinchey to potentially be the top offensive tackle on the market. Historically, that's a man that gets himself a bag. He's a scheme-friendly talent whose only missed fifteen games in five seasons. The Bears and Raiders will likely be in touch with the Notre Dame alumni's people to talk turkey.
Juju Smith-Schuster: The sixth-year wideout signed a one-year, prove it deal with the Chiefs and responded with his best statistical season since 2018. Playing with Patrick Mahomes will do that for many... Even at 26, he's certainly not the top-tier receiver he once looked like he could be, but may end up being paid as such by a desperate franchise. He'd be best off staying in KC on a beneficial contract for both sides.
Jakobi Meyers: A true success as an undrafted free agent, Jakobi Meyers posted an impressive 235/2,758/8 stat line over his four years as New England's impromptu WR1. And that was with some generally iffy play under center. Given that the Patriots helped jump start his career, it'd be safe to wonder if he consider a team-friendly deal to stay up in Foxborough. It'd be wise to at least test the waters though for a life changing pay day in a thin receiver market.
Tony Pollard: Despite running backs being undervalued as a whole, the Cowboys true RB1 should be a hot commodity in free agency. His 5.2 yards per carry pairs nicely with a 9.5 yards per catch statistic, reinforcing his three-down back capability. The fact that he thrived as the lead dog in the two games Zeke missed should be equally appealing to potential suitors. I would be stunned if Dallas lets him walk, but it wouldn't be the first time they've pulled a confusing move in my lifetime. He'd be an interesting addition in Arizona and Atlanta. Or even Las Vegas, assuming they let the guy next on our list leave.
Josh Jacobs: What a season for Josh Jacobs. After getting his fifth-year rookie option denied by the Raiders, the running back exploded for 1,653 rushing yards and twelve touchdowns while posting a career high in receiving yards. For a few weeks this season, he was undeniably the top ball carrier in the NFL. He's recently been quoted saying that he loves Vegas and would be willing to stay, but given their tenuous quarterback situation, I'd be surprised to see them substantially invest at RB.
Marcus Davenport: I'll never forget the quarterback run of 2018 draft when New Orleans traded up to 14...to pass on Lamar Jackson for Marcus Davenport. It was a stunning decision by a team with a very old, physically deteriorating Drew Brees under center and an offensive mastermind in Sean Payton at the helm. Jackson went on to polarize the league, capturing a unanimous MVP in the process, where Davenport largely has underwhelmed-- missing nineteen games and only recording 21.5 sacks in five seasons. Despite the lack of consistent production, he's still a captivating mold for an edge rusher that will be coveted by some teams as a worthwhile project. Feels like a guy who'll either take a huge contract for a shitty team or a cheap, prove-it deal with a team like Philly to try and boost his stats for a future payday.
Jordan Poyer: It's rare to see a player consistently get better and better every year, but that's exactly what Jordan Poyer has done in Buffalo. He went from a relatively unknown and disposable seventh round pick by the Eagles, to an afterthought in Cleveland, to an All-Pro for the Bills. Due to his career usage, it's hard to say if he's a product of a solid system or a talent hitting his stride; something GMs across the league will need to consider. I'd be surprised if he left Orchard Park, but he is 31 and probably on the precipice of his final big contract, so he'd have to be consider leaving for greenbacked pastures.
Cameron Sutton: Steelers' lifer Cam Sutton surprisingly seems like he will hit the open market, which should have plenty of potential suitors interested. While far from elite, Sutton was always a steady presence for Pittsburgh during his tenure, only missing two games over the last four seasons. At 27, he'd make a fine CB2 for many teams, but will likely get priced higher than that. The Raiders, Giants and Colts would all make for good fits.
Dalton Schultz: Dak's safety blanket appears to be on his way out of Dallas. Schultz missed some time early in the season with an injury and seemed to take a while to get fully back up to speed. Once he did though, he was the reliable target hog we've grown to know him as. The Cowboys are a little tight against the cap, and would probably prefer to allocate funds to retaining Tony Pollard over their tight end, so I do expect him to be playing somewhere else next year. The Commanders or Texans could be nice landing spots for him.
DJ Chark: Injuries have really been a bugaboo for Chark throughout his career, a sentiment that unfortunately rang true during his time in Detroit. He missed six games early for the Lions, which definitely impacted his chemistry with Jared Goff early, but the two eventually got on the same page by the end of the season, connecting for big plays en route to an impressive 16.7 YPC average. He shouldn't fetch crazy money or a long contract, but there'll definitely be a WR-needy team like the Ravens or Giants willing to throw him a bone.
Ben Powers: Speaking of Ravens...the last man on our list had a good year at guard out in Charm City. Conveniently, his ascension in play was perfectly timed with a contract year, as Powers had been very average throughout his first three seasons in the league. Baltimore does a nice job of finding interior lineman in the mid rounds of the draft, so I expect they'll be letting Ben walk. Denver, Indianapolis and Chicago were the 1st, 2nd and 4th most sacked teams in the league, respectively, and will likely be considering courtship of Mr. Powers.
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@Choppinglines
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