I'm sad to report that we've made it to the final week of the NFL regular season. It seems to come and go faster and faster each year... There's still some uncertainty on seedings, but most of the playoff slots are clinched-- which means some unpredictable, meaningless divisional matchups this weekend. We'll be tuning in and betting regardless! Should be a wild ride. Here's our thoughts on each game.
Kansas City Chiefs (-7.5) at Las Vegas Raiders (Saturday 1/7)
Jarrett Stidham szn, round two! The Raiders welcome in the division-owning Chiefs to Allegiant Stadium for their second meeting of the year. With the #1 seed in the AFC at stake, don't expect Patrick Mahomes to let off the gas on offense. As inconsistent as their scoring can be at times, they almost never struggle to move the ball, and Las Vegas isn't about to slow them this week. Expect huge days from Travis Kelce and Kadarius Toney against the bottom five pass defense.
As fun as it might be to wish for it, this feels more like an audition as a competent backup more than a future starter for Stidham. He was great last week against the top defense in the league; a performance I don't anticipate he'll be able to replicate against a highly motivated KC team. Josh Jacobs won't have a ton of room to operate on the ground as the offense will likely be playing catch up for much of the game. The defense should be able to pick the young QB at least once in his efforts to keep pace.
The Chiefs absolutely hate covering...so I'm not super confident in this take. But gimme KC winning with ease and covering, sending the Raiders into the offseason with one more disappointment.
Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars (-6.5) (Saturday 1/7)
Josh Dobbs is in the same boat as Stidham, trying to follow up a strong showing to prove his worth to teams in the league looking for a viable backup. He should have some success doing this against a shaky Jags secondary, but the Titans as a whole are going to be severely depleted in this game due to injuries. They should be able to move the ball some, but they won't be able to stop Trevor Lawrence.
Jacksonville's sophomore QB is set for a huge day down in Duval against the Titans 32nd ranked pass defense. He's going to dice them up like he's playing craps... Travis Etienne shouldn't have his best day against a stout front seven, but the Jaguars won't need him to. Christian Kirk and Zay Jones should pop, look into their prop bets for overs in yardage.
Jaguars by slaughter. This is their moment and they seem poised to seize it. Hit the over too, currently set at 39.5. Jacksonville might hit that on their own.
Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals (-7.5)
Lamar's status for this game weighs heavily on my final score prediction, but it's feeling more and more like we'll be subjected to another Tyler Huntley game... He's turned an inconsistent, frustrating offense into a boring, inconsistent and bad one. Love the man, but we need him holding the clipboard.
The Ravens defense should be able to put a respectable performance on the field, but they could end up being on the field for 35-40 minutes if the Huntley and the offense can't move the ball. That's not a recipe for success for any defense against this potent Bengals' passing attack. I'm afraid we could see some huge numbers from their three wideouts...at least the two who don't draw Marlon in coverage. The run D needs a bounce back after Najee Harris embarrassed them Sunday night.
If LJ8 plays, I'll take Cincy winning and Baltimore covering. If not...this game will be tough to watch.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons (-4.5)
Will you remember where you were when we look back in history at the Kyle Trask vs. Desmond Ridder matchup? With the Bucs locked into the 4 seed, expect them to trot out as few starters as possible. Will we see a group of fringe roster guys scrapping to show they belong in the plans for next year, or a true B-team quality performance?
Ridder has a bit more at stake in this otherwise meaningless game. While he's played fairly mistake-free football, the offense as a whole has been pretty lifeless. Depending how many Bucs defensive starters go, it'd be a bad indictment on Ridder if he can't put up a solid passing line. If he can, Drake London should have a big day.
I originally liked Tampa in this game but with the backups in and Arthur Smith being 10x the coach Todd Bowles is...I'm a little more uncertain. Give me the Buccaneers to cover at least and the under.
New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills (-7.5)
A whole lot on the line in this AFC East showdown. If New England wins, they're in--a tall task in Buffalo against what should be an incredibly inspired unit.
The Patriots offense will need to get rolling if they're going to pull off the upset. It took them a defensive and special teams touchdown to score 23 points last week, and they didn't look much better against Cincy the game prior. Was a healthy Rhamondre Stevenson that important to their offensive success...is Mac Jones super average? Probably a mix of both and more; some atrocious offensive coordinators in New England. Big moment ahead for them though.
After Monday nights terrifying injury to Damar Hamlin, I anticipate the Bills to come out firing on all cylinders. They're going to be flying around the field on both sides of the ball, eventually overtaking their inferior divisional rivals and eliminating them from postseason contention. Give me Buffalo by double digits. Big, big day on deck for Josh Allen.
Minnesota Vikings (-6.5) at Chicago Bears
Kirk Cousins and the Vikings should be thoroughly embarrassed after the shit they brought to the field last Sunday. They find themselves playing at one o'clock this week, which fits right into Cousins' wheelhouse. Expect him and Justin Jefferson to explode against a completely overmatched Bears defense. Dalvin Cook should roll on the ground too.
Justin Fields is dealing with a hip injury that'll land him on the bench for the final game of his impressive sophomore campaign; therefore Nathan Peterman will be Chicago's starting quarterback. HAMMER whatever his over is for interceptions, and the Vikings in the process-- this game won't be close.
Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts (-2.5)
Arguably the worst game of the season right here. Sam Ehlinger vs. the Davis Mills/Jeff Driskel platoon. Literally nauseating.
I'd bet the house this'll be the last time we see Jeff Saturday as the head coach in Indianapolis. It started with a fun, come from behind victory in Las Vegas, but they've lost six straight since then. If you take away their 33 point first-half against Minnesota, they've been outscored 151-35 over the last month. Complete and utter incompetence.
Texans are tasty dogs here, Indianapolis absolutely blows. What a disappointing season for a team that many felt could make a true playoff push with Matt Ryan under center. Gimme Houston and the under; avoid watching this game at all costs.
New York Jets at Miami Dolphins (- 1/2)
Speaking of losing streaks...the Miami Dolphins were once the #1 seed overall. 5 games later, they're at .500 and not even in control of their own playoff destiny. Feels just like last year, huh Ravens fans...
Teddy Bridgewater reportedly can't throw due to a broken finger, which is a bad sign for Miami's offense. It's looking like we'll be getting some more Skylar Thompson, being backed up by recently signed Mike Glennon! New York's defense must be salivating...
While their postseason hopes may have been dashed a week ago in Seattle, Robert Saleh and the Jets will happily spoil their divisional foe's chances. Joe Flacco can't do much worse than Mike White did against the Seahawks, with the latter set to sit out with a rib injury. We think he'll do a bit better, aided by some short fields due to incompetent quarterback play on the other side.
I'll take the Jets here for their defense alone, if nothing else. Long day ahead for the Fins down in South Beach.
Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints (-3.5)
What a fun game this would've been if Carolina could've held onto their lead over Tampa last week. Instead, we'll be watching Andy Dalton and Sam Darnold compete for respective roles on their teams next season.
New Orleans' defense played much better against Philly's potent weapons-- momentum they look to carry over into the final game. DJ Moore has been rejuvenated with Darnold under center and should have some great battles with Marshon Lattimore on the outside. D'Onta Foreman's hoping to find more room to run than the Bucs gave him too.
Don't expect anything too exciting from the Saints' offense. Outside of Chris Olave and an occasional big play from Rashid Shaheed, Taysom Hill or Alvin Kamara, they've been pretty vanilla all year. That won't change against an underrated Carolina D, who should do a good job of limiting their scoring, even with Jaycee Horn out.
Originally was feeling NOLA in this one, but I've shifted back to the Panthers side. They'll get it done in the City of Easy Living, ending their season on a high note.
Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5)
Ohio legalized sports gambling this week, led by former Browns' QB Bernie Kosar betting $19,000 on Cleveland to win this game outright. No pressure right?
Their best route to victory will be with Nick Chubb on the ground. The Steelers' front seven was a sieve to opposing backs in the first half of the year, but have substantially improved since TJ Watt's return. If Cleveland can't balance their offense, it could be a really difficult day for Deshaun Watson and company.
Kenny Pickett's been pretty pedestrian statistically, but he's been clutch late on their current three game win streak. That's been all they've needed with Najee Harris running the way he's been, averaging over 23 touches and 83 YPG over their last three. The Browns iffy run defense will need to shut down Pittsburgh's RB1 in order to give themselves a chance at bringing home the dub.
Don't expect them to be able to do that. I'll take Pittsburgh by good, old fashioned defense + ground and pound.
Los Angeles Chargers (-3.5) at Denver Broncos
At a glance, I loved LA in this game. The offense is back to full strength and humming, while the defense has been the best in the NFL over the last month. They look like the complete team many expected them to be.
Vegas sets traps like these though...and my skepticism is growing. The Broncos hung with the Chargers in their week six matchup, forcing overtime before falling 19-16. And that was with recently fired Nathaniel Hackett running the show. Russell Wilson and the offense looked substantially better under Jerry Rosburg's direction and could make this one interesting with a strong follow up performance. They still have plenty of talent on that side of the ball, they just can't have a dickhead performance from their QB set them back.
Justin Herbert won't have a cake walk go against a strong Denver secondary. No matter how bad this team's been, the defense has consistently been up to par (minus that debacle against the Rams). They'll have their hands full with Mike Williams, Keenan Allen and Austin Ekeler playing the way they are, but it's a challenge they're more than capable of stepping up to.
I'm not positive who'll end up winning this one, but something tells me to ride with Denver to cover at least.
New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles (-13.5)
Word on the street is Jalen Hurts will be back for this game-- a crucial development for Philadelphia. They were all but set as the #1 seed in the NFC just two weeks ago before tough losses to Dallas and New Orleans. Suddenly their playoff seeding rides very directly with this game. Win and they get a bye. Lose...and they may not even have a home playoff game.
The Giants are locked into the 6th seed, meaning majority of their starters will not be playing much, if at all. Tyrod Taylor with Matt Breida, Isaiah Hodgins and Richie James will be leading the charge for the G-Men-- a real who's who. If the Eagles' offense gets clicking like they were prior to Hurts' injury, it'll be a really long afternoon for the New York offense.
Which is exactly what it'll be. Philly will build a comfortable lead early before pulling some key guys late to rest, allowing a Giants back door cover. Take the over too.
Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers (-14.5)
David Blough vs. a San Francisco defense with a reputation to reestablish after giving up 500 yards to Jarrett Stidham and the Raiders last week. This game should be ugly, quick.
49ers by slaughter. Might be the last time we see Kliff Kingsbury on the sideline for Arizona.
Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks (-6.5)
The battle for the NFC's 7th seed starts in Seattle. The Hawks don't fully control their destiny, but they can eliminate themselves by losing to the lowly Rams.
Baker and the offense have been inconsistent, despite Cam Akers recent resurgence. LA's newly minted RB1 should have some operating room against a subpar front seven. With Ben Skowronek set to miss this game, Van Jefferson, Tutu Atwell and Tyler Higbee will need to find ways to get open if the passing game is going to work.
Aaron Donald's currently doubtful, priming Kenneth Walker for a huge day. The rookie's been incredibly explosive for Seattle when his health has permitted. Should be a big day for their tight ends in the passing game too, as I don't anticipate Geno challenging Jalen Ramsey too regularly. He was efficient last week avoiding the Jets' talented corners.
NFC west games are always competitive and I don't expect this one to be any different. Pete Carroll and the Seahawks should get it done, but I'll take the Rams to cover. The loss would leave LA alone as the worst team post-Super Bowl in history. Not the spotlight you want to find yourself in.
Dallas Cowboys (-6.5) at Washington Commanders
Sam Howell, welcome to the NFL! What a better greeting committee than Micah Parsons and the Dallas defense.
With that in mind, definitely temper expectations for the Commanders offense. There may be a smash play or two, but expect a few interceptions and a lot of dump offs. Logan Thomas should be a tasty little daily fantasy or prop play. Brian Robinson's going to be force fed the rock too, until the game gets out of hand.
The Boys' are still vying for the #1 seed, so they'll be coming out motivated and ready to smash the rookie quarterback. Ceedee Lamb should be able to feast against Washington's corners, ending his career year on a high note. Their offensive line will need to work hard to keep Dak upright though against DC's fierce front seven.
I like the Cowboys to win this one on the road. They're just the better team with a lot more on the line. Pulling for Sam Howell to have a good showing though, liked him coming out of UNC.
Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers (-4.5)
THE game of the week, especially if Seattle falls to the Rams. Detroit's offense is clicking on the ground as well as in the pass game. Even though Green Bay's defense has been playing better in recent weeks, they'll still have their hands full. D'Andre Swift's emergence as a RB1b instead of just spelling Jamaal Williams adds to their versatility.
The Lions' defense has also been playing well lately, particularly rookie Aidan Hutchinson. Another big performance by them will go a long way in taking this one home. Aaron Rodgers still hasn't cleared 300 yards passing in a game, a crazy statistic-- especially given that he's averaging over 32 pass attempts a game. Really speaks volumes to the lack of quality at receiver, minus some explosive plays by Christian Watson. Expect a bunch of carries for Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon.
I want to take the Lions so badly in this game...I'm just not sure if I see them beating Rodgers with this much on the line. Seattle winning would eliminate them too, which would be a huge hit to the morale. All that being said, I'll take Green Bay to win but not cover, continuing their win streak and making the postseason.
------
@Choppinglines
*This is not gambling advice, just our opinions. Consider at your own risk
*I own no rights to any images found in this blog
Comments
Post a Comment