Thoughts on Free Agency
Additions: SP Kyle Gibson, C James McCann, RP Mychal Givens, 2B Adam Frazier
Departures: SP Jordan Lyles, 2B Rougned Odor, C Robinson Chirinos
To be frank, this hasn't been the offseason many fans had been hoping for. No Trea Turner, no Justin Verlander, no Xander Bogaerts-- just a few mid-level guys to replace a few departed mid-level guys.
Which is how it was always going to be. As exciting as the team's young roster is, they're not one guy away from being legit contenders. And even if we optimistically say they are, the free agents who were available weren't going to be the ones to elevate them to that status.
With so much up and coming talent, there was no need to strap themselves financially to a shiny name for the sake of doing so. And Elias, wisely, did not. It's debatable whether some of the big names were worth the large annual salaries they received, but the length of the contracts connected to the amount screamed albatross to me.
Carlos Rodon's contract will run until he's 36, costing the Yankees $27 mil a year along the way. Big money for a pitcher that's posted a sub-4 ERA in less than half of his major league seasons with injury concerns.
Carlos Correa's contract will run until he's 40, at just over $26 mil a year-- assuming he ever clears his physical... He's hit over .290 just twice and has only two All-Star appearances in his eight year career, and while he's certainly no slouch, is he really worth that money? Given some of his selfish remarks toward the end of 2022, I'm not sure he's the veteran leader we'd want in our clubhouse right now anyway.
No other big name was really even remotely linked to us. Aaron Judge wasn't moving down 95, Justin Turner wasn't coming back, Verlander and Jose Abreu are in "win-now" mode; it's just the reality of the situation. I would've been happy with a Josh Bell or Jameson Taillon like signing-- 2-4 years on non-crippling contracts for justifiable past production in positions of need-- but how much better would they have truly made us?
Adam Frazier's not going to bring the pop or attitude Rougned Odor did, but he'll bring over a reliable, versatile glove which we value. Not to mention a batting average that won't flirt with the Mendoza line all season... Kyle Gibson isn't going to be in anyone's Cy Young discussion, but he's an inning-eating veteran who should help lead the young staff and preserve the bullpen. Replacing Jordan Lyles with him is, at worst, a wash. And James McCann is a massive upgrade over Robinson Chirinos as our backup catcher.
When looking back at free agency, I can affirmatively say this roster is better than it was at the end of 2022. Take into the account the gains many of our young players should make, plus the infusion of talent from the farm, and who knows how high the ceiling will be come October.
There's still time left for a move too. Will Trey Mancini make a return? Or the Eric Hosmer rumors come to fruition? Neither are needle-moving additions, but we are in need of a DH/backup 1B. Michael Wacha is a reasonable possibility at starter, and Zach Greinke would be a fascinating signing in his own right.
For now though, they are who they are. Adley will be behind the plate majority of the season, with Mountcastle, Frazier/Urias/Mateo and Henderson rounding out the infield, and Hays/Mullins/Santander/Stowers holding down the outfield. The opening day rotation is going to consist of Grayson Rodriguez, Austin Voth, Dean Kremer, Kyle Bradish/Gibson and Tyler Wells, in some order or another until John Means is cleared. Mount Felix will be holding down the back end of a bullpen that'll look to follow up on a strong 2022.
By no later than September, expect to see Colton Cowser and Jordan Westburg join the mix as well. They've each rapidly moved up the rankings and minors with a ton of success. They'll be big pieces in the Orioles eventual playoff push.
Will they be seriously contending for a World Series? I doubt it. Last year's surprise success unrealistically sped up many fan's patience with the rebuild, but the team simply isn't there yet. However, I do expect them to push for a playoff spot again while establishing themselves as a youthful, stalwart in the league-- a la Atlanta. 2024 is going to be the year they really arrive.
Trade Reinforcements
With the big names already snatched up, it'd take a trade to bring a marquee talent to Baltimore. I expect this to be the route the O's take by the summer to bolster the roster for this season and beyond. That affords Elias more control in exactly who he's targeting, their fit on the roster, how long they'll be a part of the team and for what price-- rather than trying to outbid twenty other teams for marginal yet premium-priced talent.
Given their depth at skill positions in the minor league system, a starting pitcher would likely be the best option to fast track serious contention. There've been a few names tossed around in the last few months, some more realistic then others:
Semi-Realistic Possibilities
Corbin Burnes (MIL)- Burnes to Baltimore has been gaining some media steam throughout the offseason. The Brewers' 28 year old starter has two more years of arbitration, which certainly boosts the return they would get for him. He's coming off of three consecutive seasons with an ERA sub 3.00 too, which justifies that massive haul they'd request. With a pretty thin farm system and shaky outlook for this season, I wouldn't be surprised if the O's have already been in contact with Milwaukee about their ace.
Pablo Lopez/Trevor Rogers (MIA)- Pablo Lopez has been the most hyped trade rumor to the Birds in the last few months. The Marlins pitcher also has two years of arbitration left but at a slightly cheaper rate than Burnes. While not a surefire, dominant ace, Lopez is a solid starter and reliable inning eater who'd cost less to acquire.
Trevor Rogers is another name the O's could consider from South Beach. The lefty starter had a terrible encore to his strong 2020 campaign, but still has a ton of talent. He's in pre-arbitration which could make for a very appealing contract depending on just how much he shines. Miami's got a stocked farm system, but they're very thin on positional talent-- which is exactly where Baltimore is loaded. They seem to be the suitor with the most realistic options to consider.
Wishful Thinking
Zac Gallen (ARI)- Gallen would cost us the prettiest of pennies, but the 27 year old would certainly be worth the price. He's only had one season with an ERA above 3.00 while consistently avoiding opponents' bats. The Diamondbacks have a strong farm system, but are easily a year or two from competing on the major league level, especially in the NL West. Moving their ace for a hefty package could substantially enhance the lineup they trot out in 2025.
Framber Valdez/Cristian Javier (HOU)- The Astros already have an elite pitching staff top to bottom, potentially making one of their five expendable. Their farm system is completely depleted, outside of Hunter Brown-- who'll be forcing his way into the rotation sooner than later anyway. Given Elias' history with Houston, this feels more possible than it probably is. Wishful thinking indeed!
All in all, I haven't been this excited about the Orioles in January for nearly a decade. It's very likely we experience a bit of regression from last season, but there should be plenty of action and optimism along the way. The major league team is young, scrappy and growing on top of an elite, emergent farm system. It feels like there's hope, stability and direction that the franchise has lacked in my lifetime. It feels like winning is on the horizon. This is Birdland.
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@Choppinglines
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