State of the Ravens

 State of the Ravens

What a horrendous way that was to end the season at the hands of the Cincinnati Bengals. Nearly too much to stomach, it was a microcosm of the season as a whole: Really good, great at times, but too often not enough. Same story again on Sunday. 

On the road against our division rivals, over 130 more yards of offensive, a strong defensive showing-- yet too many drive stalling play calls and one major mistake took us from the brink of an upset to the offseason. We'll talk about all that and more below.

Thoughts on the Season

Personnel concerns and the lack of an extension for Lamar Jackson set an ominous tone out the gate. With David Ojabo and Tyus Bowser rehabbing Achilles' injuries, the outside linebacker room was thin and old. The pass catching core was mostly unproven and unpromising, outside of Isaiah Likely's emergence as a viable weapon. Even the running backs were highly on the mend, not getting back to playing speed until the second half of the year.

A 3-3 start highlighted many of these issues, with all three defeats coming late in games that they had double-digit point leads in. One week it'd be the offense faltering, the next it'd be the secondary getting diced by Tua, then the front seven couldn't contain Saquon and Daniel Jones. This team that could flash greatness just couldn't consistently get it done.

Four straight wins in the middle third of the season took everyone's mind off the shaky start. Lost in the sauce is the fact that those games were against Jacoby Brissett and 3/4 of the shitty NFC South, and only came by a combined 32 points. Obviously any team would love to average an eight point victory each week, but they weren't looking good against teams they should've been destroying, particularly on the offensive side of the ball.

The week the offense did show up, the defense faltered down in Jacksonville, blowing a nine and seven point leads in the fourth quarter, as the team fell 28-27. This was an underachieving 7-4 team with some frustrations starting to mount. Lamar's injury the following week was a critical blow.

Managing to go 2-3 with Tyler Huntley and Anthony Brown was more surprising than encouraging. The defense was playing lights out after the addition of Roquan Smith, but it was clear this team was done with #8 out. The offense simply didn't have enough juice at any level. All the while, we anxious fans had to be dragged through the annual façade of hope by John Harbaugh and the medical staff. "Just a few weeks," may as well be a season long indictment in Baltimore. 

Our strong play early in the year allowed us to limp into the wild card round for our third showdown against Cincinnati. The team showed a ton of heart, which I'll credit Harbaugh some for. They were motivated and went blow for blow with a team many felt was superior. Unfortunately, as the game went along, Greg Roman did what he loves to do and got too cute and we came up 0.6 yards short of really pushing them to the brink. Watching Sam Hubbard rumble 98 yards for that score stung the soul...still looking for the block and the back flag for Mark Andrews.

Gutsy end to another overall letdown of a season in Baltimore. Something needs to change.

Wishes for the Offseason

Last offseason, I would've given Lamar Jackson almost any contract he wanted. The market was ramping up, lesser quarterbacks were being paid substantial amounts and to be honest, I've suffered through too many Kyle Boller games to want to risk the QB carousel. But then this year unraveled the way it did and I have some reservations in that regard.

I understand why Lamar wouldn't want to play under the franchise tag, for numerous reasons. But there has to be some wiggling on both sides to figure out a contract, whether it be in length or guaranteed amount. A contract like Aaron Rodgers' most recent 3/$151 extension seems to be fair for both parties; paying an exorbitant amount of money to a deserving player while not handicapping the teams' cap long-term. I'd fully guarantee it too if that was a hold up.

The next option would be a deal similar to what Russell Wilson/Kyler Murray got. 5-6 years, lots of money but not fully guaranteed. Jackson has made it pretty clear that he isn't seeking such an offer, so we'll table this thought until we begin to have reason to think otherwise. 

The final option is the franchise tag, which would be more of a tool for a trade or extension as the former MVP has already said he won't play on it. I'd imagine going down this route would spell the end of his time in Baltimore...but we've seen stranger things happen. 

A trade would need to net a monumental haul-- not a rebuild but a retooling. A lateral step with a new quarterback, some new pieces from high draft picks and a new offensive coordinator. Would Houston be willing to part with 2 and 12 + some for Lamar? How much would the Jets offer up? Life without #8 doesn't sound fun, but it's a contingency we need to start preparing for. Especially if we can get his a young replacement immediately.

All that being said, let's get a deal done with him. A short-term, fully guaranteed deal feels like the best route for both sides. Replacing Greg Roman is the next step. His philosophy worked well for a few years but it's run stale. This offense shouldn't be as inconsistent as it has been, and we need somebody who can maximize our quarterback's unique skill set.

A true WR1 would be next on the wish list. This would probably have to come by trade or the draft, with the former feeling safer, given the franchise's history of developing receivers. Deandre Hopkins is an interesting option that may come for a relative bargain. Brandin Cooks or Michael Pittman Jr. would be slightly more expensive but are also viable candidates from rebuilding teams. Davante Adams would be an absolute steal if he wants out of Las Vegas after the Derek Carr developments.

A young defensive end would be nice addition too. Calais Campbell is still playing at a pretty high level, but he isn't getting any younger. EDC would be wise to seek reinforcements. Arden Key was someone I coveted last offseason but he ended up in Jacksonville. He'll once again be a free agent in the coming weeks. Marcus Davenport or Larry Ogunjobi would be interesting, cost-effective options as well. 

Finally, we need to seek some improved depth at cornerback. Marlon had a great year, but Marcus Peters is a free agent that was pretty up and down anyway. Love the attitude he brought though. Kyle Fuller's also an impending free agent coming off of a major injury. With all the weapons they have to deal with in the AFC, a strong secondary goes a long way. There'll need to be a few big moves done to address this group.

Best Case Scenario: Extend Lamar Jackson, trade a third round pick for Deandre Hopkins, draft BPA at DE/CB in the first round, sign Marvin Jones, a cornerback and Arden Key in free agency, bring in a new offensive coordinator, avoid the injury bug.

The Coaching Staff

As an admitted loyalist, John Harbaugh has me uneasy. This team seems to have so much composure at times, yet make too many senseless blunders. Clock mismanagement, bad challenges and a lack of willingness to hold assistants accountable have been seen by Harbaugh at times throughout his coaching tenure, but the current roster's patience is running thin with it. For the first time since mid-2019, I could be content with Harbaugh and the Ravens parting ways.

That isn't what I want to do however, not just yet. Good coaches are hard to find, especially with so much uncertainty at the quarterback spot. Without Lamar Jackson, or a very clear replacement plan in place, just how appealing is this job right now for an incoming coach? Personally, I hope we don't find out.

Greg Roman has to be gone though. The shotgun snaps on and-1 situations, handing the ball off to Mark Andrews on huge possessions, the inability to cut the flashy shit and just hand the ball off because it's working...it's all enough. The dude was great for his first few seasons here, as he was in Buffalo and San Francisco, but now's the time and the time is now. Find a guy with the ability to get the most out of their generational quarterback, assuming they can retain him, while making Baltimore a place free agent receivers will at least consider. Round out this stagnant offense.

Mike MacDonald didn't start the year out great but really grew into the role as the year progressed. An All-Pro like Roquan Smith doesn't hurt with that, but he had to be creative in blitz packages and a thin cornerback room down the stretch. He showed that he was able to make adjustments on the fly and had the Ravens defense playing at an elite level for the final month. Excited to see what he can do in his encore performance.

Eric DeCosta

I was a huge fan of Ozzie Newsome's protégé when he took over the job in 2019. He'd been under the Wizard's tutelage for years, and had just cosigned a draft that netted Lamar Jackson, Orlando Brown Jr. and Mark Andrews. After three straight disappointing seasons, things looked to be very much back on track in Baltimore.

25 wins in the subsequent two seasons only reinforced his place with the franchise. He seemed to fill most holes on the roster relatively cheaply and the on field product was a good one, at least until the postseason. There was little reason to think the success wasn't sustainable, as long as Lamar Jackson at the helm.

Then trouble started to brew. The Ravens were 7-3 through their first ten games of 2021, with wins in hand against fellow AFC competitors in the Chiefs, Chargers and Colts-- setting themselves apart as the front runners for the #1 seed. But looking beyond the record, there were noticeable problems arising. 

Four of those seven wins witnessed the team digging them out of holes they'd made-- 12 unanswered points to comeback and beat Kansas City, an NFL record 66-yard field goal by Justin Tucker to beat the lowly Lions, 22 and 21 unanswered to beat the Colts and Vikings each in overtime. Compound those with a bad loss to the Raiders and the ass-kicking Cincy put on us, and it always felt like the record was an anomaly, maybe a pure byproduct of Lamar Jackson's will and skill. 7-3 with a +17 point differential. Vikings-esque. 

Then Lamar got hurt in their week twelve victory over the Browns and we know the story from there. Six straight losses by a combined 28 points. The team fought, but the underlying issues with the roster were apparent without the extraordinary Jackson to lift them up. 

Tyler Huntley was admirable, but could only do so much with a thin, average, and depleted receiving core. Greg Roman's inability to make in-game adjustments to the play calling was magnified without #8 to bail him out. The defense was down to practice squad cornerbacks and failed to generate consistent pressure all season. 

You can't fault the GM for players going down, and we had plenty, but you can place blame for the lack of quality depth on him. Their WR2 coming into the season was Sammy Watkins, even before Bateman hurt his foot. They let Matthew Judon walk, assuming Derek Wolfe could fill his shoes... They were fully invested in Tavon Young as their third corner, despite the fact that he was returning from season-ending injuries in 2019 and 2020. The result was exactly how it sounds, subpar. Inadequate. And that is on DeCosta.

Wink Martindale was the sacrificial lamb from the coaching staff, despite doing more with a lot less. Greg Roman somehow maintained his position as offensive coordinator, much to the disdain of Marquise Brown. The oft-criticized first round selection by EDC voiced his disapproval of the offense and requested out. While small, inconsistent, injury and drop prone, Hollywood was easily our best receiver and an integral part of the offense. 

They vehemently failed to replace him. Roman's retention at OC surely deterred serious discussions from developing with top free agents, and they elected not to address the position in the draft or via trade. So into 2022 they went with Rashod Bateman, Devin Duvernay, Tylan Wallace and James Proche; before upgrading with Demarcus Robinson after his release by Las Vegas. Mark Andrews or not, it was a predictably precarious situation at best.

Netting Tyler Linderbaum for Brown was a nice upgrade for the offensive line, so we'll credit DeCosta for that. He'll be a nice piece for the next few years. But he had nobody to block for much of the season-- with neither Gus Edwards nor JK Dobbins ready for the beginning of the season. Good thing we signed Mike Davis and Kenyan Drake... Even when the top two RB's have been available, they've lacked consistent explosiveness and have had issues staying on the field. The offensive personnel was severely neglected. 

The defensive side was addressed more thoroughly, except for the outside linebacker position. Marcus Williams and Kyle Hamilton were solid additions to the back end of the defense that have paid dividends. Kyle Fuller seemed to be a great piece too, unfortunately only lasting three quarters before an ACL tear. Travis Jones was a cheap and excellent replacement for Brandon Williams. But going in with only Justin Houston and Jason Pierre-Paul at outside linebacker for over half the season was an egregious error. 

Whatever happened with the Zadarius Smith contract fallout had a terrible effect early. With how similar of a tale it is Michael Brockers just the year before, I'm very curious what went wrong in those negotiations. The fizzled talks did quite possibly enable the Roquan Smith trade in November. This move was huge not only in upgrading the middle linebacker position, but by allowing Patrick Queen to slide outside into a more complementary/pass rushing role. The defense has really thrived with each on the field. 

But one has to raise the question...why such a heavy allocation of resources to the defense side of the ball, while essentially ignoring the offense? Sure, it's a part of the reputation of Baltimore football, which I can sign off on. But with a guy like Lamar Jackson under center-- as polarizing as he is purely talented and on a rookie contract-- how can you not try and build around him as much as possible to see just what his ceiling is?

The man won a unanimous MVP with Hollywood, Andrews, Hayden Hurst and Seth Roberts as his top targets, while handing the ball off to a thirty year old Mark Ingram. Imagine what he could do in positions like Josh Allen, Joe Burrow or Justin Herbert find themselves in. Shit, even Zach Wilson has a stable of weapons to abuse. 

Why the willingness to trade a second round pick for a linebacker but not a first for a proven wideout? The impact Roquan made on our defense could easily be seen with the offense if we plugged Tyreek Hill, AJ Brown or Davante Adams in with Lamar. Someone to make 80+ catches, while clearing space for Andrews and Isaiah Likely over the middle, taking the opposing CB1 off of Rashod Bateman. Jackson's career year came with much less. 

Instead, he was thrown into what was widely known as a make-or-break contract season with arguably the worst receiving core in the NFL, on top of an offensive coordinator that pretty clearly had ran his course. I don't think this was out of spite or a negotiating ploy, as both have their jobs tied to Baltimore's success, but it certainly didn't do Lamar any favors. The offense suffered down the stretch as a result, even before the PCL sprain.

In Conclusion

Many decisions ahead this offseason for Eric DeCosta and Steve Bisciotti. Jackson's contract negotiations remain in limbo, question marks surrounding the coaching staff, minimal talent at wide receiver and more that'll need to be sorted out in the coming months. Given their standard for success, the clock should be currently ticking on EDC's time here if the on-field product doesn't improve. 

Ominous winds rolling in. Feels like a turning point moment in the franchise is ahead of us. Stay tuned Baltimore, big offseason ahead.

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@Choppinglines

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