Last week's NFL action left some big shoes for the divisional round to fill. Luckily, these four matchups are more than up to the task. There's some big dogs, some old time rivalries and a classic NFC showdown to wrap up the weekend. Crazy things on the way, this is how we think it's gonna go.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Kansas City Chiefs (-8.5)- Saturday 1/21 @ 4:30 PM
How do you follow up a performance like that Jacksonville? Trevor Lawrence helped dig the team into a 27-0 hole just as quickly as he pulled them out, in a win for the ages. Kansas City won't be so merciful if they can force multiple turnovers.
The Chiefs should be well rested off of a bye and not intimidated by their opponent's momentum whatsoever. The Jaguars boast the sixth worst pass defense in the league, which should be ripe for the picking by Patrick Mahomes. Kadarius Toney's return to the field has been a dynamic addition that will need to be accounted for. KC should be ahead for much of this game, so Isiah Pacheco should get a bunch of carries, but don't expect him to wow with any yardage totals.
Andy Reid's secondary wasn't exactly an elite group in their own right this season and will have their hands full with a diverse Jacksonville attack. Marvin and Zay Jones, Christian Kirk and Evan Engram are all viable pass threats that Lawrence will look for in any situation. You can't sleep on Travis Etienne in the run or pass game either. This is a fun and dangerous offense that can run up some points, as we saw a week ago. And the second year quarterback has still never lost on a Saturday.
But we think that changes this weekend. Love the Doug Pederson and Andy Reid matchup, a real battle of coaching titans. The Chiefs will just have enough in a raucous environment at Arrowhead, taking the win but not the cover. Hit the over too, these two teams have to start out the divisional round with a bang.
New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles (-7.5)- Saturday 1/21 @ 8:15 PM
To the NFC East we go where we have two divisional rivals meeting for the third time this year. The Eagles won both of the previous tussles, with their week eighteen one being less than convincing. And that was with Davis Webb under center...
The bye week was huge for Philadelphia. Jalen Hurts has had a great season but was noticeably not himself the last time we saw him out there. A little time to heal up should have him pushing the ball downfield to his excellent receiving core. The Giants are in the bottom quarter of the league against tight ends, so expect a big day out of Dallas Goedert. Philly running backs have also averaged 6.2 YPC in their previous two games.
In that same vein, Saquon Barkley was well contained in their week fourteen game, only tallying 28 rushing yards and 20 yards receiving. His involvement is vital to New York's success. But maybe not essential, not the way Daniel Jones has played of late. He was spectacular against an admittedly bad Minnesota defense-- showing poise, chemistry with his receivers and the ability to punish teams with his dual threat ability. If the Eagles' D gets lazy or undisciplined, they could make this a lot harder on themselves than it has to be.
That won't happen though. Philadelphia is just the better roster here top to bottom, on both sides of the ball. I'm hesitant to take them and the points, because Brian Daboll and the G-Men are so good at mucking up a game flow, but there's no reason the Eagles lose this at home. As I type this...I'm also feeling the under.
Cincinnati Bengals at Buffalo Bills (-5.5)- Sunday 1/22 @ 3:00 PM
Onto Sunday we go, starting things off with the Bengals up in Buffalo. Neither of these teams looked particularly impressive in their wild card wins but are each plenty capable of turning it around.
One concerning development was how good Skylar Thompson was able to play against the Bills' defense a week ago. Some short fields didn't help the cause, but the third stringer looked more than competent for long stretches during the game. If they lull like that against Joe Burrow, it could be a long afternoon.
Another concern would be the Josh Allen turnovers. Cincinnati's defense is far from elite, but they make good mid-game adjustments and are opportunistic. If the young QB gives them a chance or two, they're very likely to make him pay.
On the other hand, the Bengals are dealing with massive offensive line issues, which the Ravens were able to heavily exploit. Buffalo's front seven isn't quite as imposing as Baltimore's, but they can definitely mess up a backup lineman to disrupt a pocket. Expect a lot of quick passes from Burrow so he doesn't have to hold the ball too long in the pocket.
I see the Bills going up early before their offense starts sputtering, allowing Cincinnati to battle back and ultimately pull away with a few critical defensive stands to pick up the road win. I cringe thinking about how much we'll have to hear the media suck off Joe Shiesty for the next week leading into a matchup with the Chiefs, but that's what I expect to see happen. Bengals win with the points total squeaking under.
Dallas Cowboys at San Francisco 49ers (-4.5)- Sunday 1/22 @ 6:30 PM
Two historic franchises capping off our divisional round, in their ninth ever postseason meeting. Dallas currently holds the 5-3 edge in their previous affairs and looked really sharp in Tampa Bay last Monday. There was some hype building around Tom Brady and the NFC South champions being a team of destiny, but Dallas went out there and smoked them on their home turf. They'll need to bring that same energy into Santa Clara if they want to pull off the upset.
Dak Prescott had been intercepted in seven straight games before having a clean, five touchdowns last week. San Francisco is more vulnerable in the pass game rather than on the ground, so a repeat performance would be their most feasible route to scoring. Dalton Schultz will have his work cut out for him against Fred Warner and their safeties, but Ceedee Lamb and Michael Gallup should have some room to work outside. Even T.Y. Hilton has recently emerged as a cog in the offense.
The Cowboys' defense will need to be fast and disciplined to slow down the Niners versatile attack. Christian McCaffery has been playing at an MVP caliber since joining the team, which has allowed more space for George Kittle, Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk to shine. They're just so dangerous everywhere...what a dream come true for Kyle Shanahan.
Brock Purdy will have to know where Micah Parsons is at all times. My personal choice for Defensive Player of the Year can be a real X-Factor in any game, especially against a young quarterback. If Purdy plays mistake free football though, he should be able to drive the offense all evening, either running away with the game or forcing a shootout.
Unlike the earlier games, this one really could go drastically either direction depending on how each team comes out. So much talent, so much at stake. I think the 49ers get it done at home and the under hits. Tricky one to bet...
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@Choppinglines
*This is not gambling advice, just our opinions. Consider at your own risk
*I own no rights to any images found in this blog
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