Week twelve came and went without too much of a bang. That will not be the case with this week 13 slate. Some huge matchups and storylines on deck all across the league. Playoff implications at stake, revenge games, divisional scrums and more. This is a week of NFL action you won't want to miss. We'll kick things off with the...
Buffalo Bills (-4.5) at New England Patriots (Thursday 12/1)
A lot on the line for these AFC East rivals on Thursday night in a unique matchup between two teams that played on Thursday the week before. Buffalo will be trying to keep pace with Miami for the divisional lead and a home playoff game, while New England attempts to jump back into the postseason mix.
Josh Allen and the Bills started slow on Thanksgiving but really cranked it up late to pull away for the win. A weird, short week in Detroit due to snow back home definitely effected that-- and won't be the case here. They should be able to pick up right where the Vikings left off against this young Pats secondary and put up some healthy points and yardage. If Matthew Judon can't make Allen uncomfortable in the pocket, this game could get out of hand quick.
On the other hand, Mac Jones was as sharp against Minnesota as he's looked since week three, in all levels of the passing game. Buffalo's defense is banged up, which should present some opportunities for him to make big plays. A healthy dose of Rhamondre Stevenson will help soften up the front seven as well, keeping the secondary on their toes. Jakobi Meyers' availability wouldn't hurt either, but they've got enough in case he does need to miss this week.
I like the Bills to win and cover, but this should be a competitive game. Give me the over on the points too with it currently at 43.5, that feels like a lock before the fourth quarter.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Atlanta Falcons (- 1/2)
It feels like the Falcons' slim playoff chances ride on the outcome of this game. They fell just short of a last minute victory in Washington and will face a very similar team in Pittsburgh: one with a pretty solid defensive core, the ability to run the ball, a strong core of receivers and questionable quarterback play.
With TJ Watt back on Pittsburgh's D-line, they're a significantly more formidable bunch. If they limit the Falcons on the ground and get pressure on Marcus Mariota, it'll set the team up beautifully to get the win.
They'd also benefit from Kenny Pickett continuing to play clean football. The rookie's numbers haven't jumped off any pages, but he has avoided interceptions over their last three games. It's no coincidence that Pittsburgh is 2-1 over that stretch, with their only loss coming by seven to Cincinnati. Najee Harris' availability would also help, he's currently up in the air with an abdominal injury. Benny Snell and Jaylen Warren are decent back ups, but lack the explosiveness Harris brings.
There's no way that Mike Tomlin loses to this Mariota-led Falcons team, so give me the Steelers and the under.
Green Bay Packers (-4.5) at Chicago Bears
Who'll be squaring off at quarterback in this one? Justin Fields vs. Aaron Rodgers? Maybe Jordan Love vs. Trevor Siemian? Nathan Peterman anyone?
Some really terrible potential options there! Regardless, this game doesn't look super appealing, as the loser will be in the bottom of the division. The Bears are banged up on both sides of the ball and would be better off losing this one to keep the #2 pick overall. The Packers are a little healthier, but supremely more disappointed by their failure to come close to expectations.
Hard to pick this game, won't spend a ton of time watching it either. Give me Green Bay to get right against an exploitable defense.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Detroit Lions (- 1/2)
Jacksonville's riding high, coming off the franchise's first ever victory when trailing by 7+ with a minute remaining. They'd previously been 0-183 in such efforts. Trevor Lawrence has been sharp in his last three outings, with a 6:0 TD:INT ratio. Predictably, the Jags have played better during that stretch, going 2-1 and generally looking competent.
Having Travis Etienne in the backfield would go a long way toward making it a 3-1 stretch. He's on track to play as of now and would be primed for a big day against a bad Lions run defense. Christian Kirk and the Jones' should also have some room to work against the secondary.
The Lions are also on a hot streak of sorts, winning three of four--with their only loss coming in a tightly contested Thanksgiving matchup vs. Buffalo. Amon Ra St. Brown has been a catalyst in this turnaround, totaling 441 yards in the five games since his return from injury. Expect Jared Goff to be looking for him early and often. D'Andre Swift and Jamaal Williams should also have some room to operate in the run game.
Love the over in this game, at least at a glance. I also think the Lions will win, but that could flip flop as the week progresses.
New York Jets at Minnesota Vikings (-3.5)
Mike White vs. 1 PM-against-a-nonelite-team Kirk Cousins: A showdown of two juggernauts! The Jets looked miles better with White under center compared to suck ass Zach Wilson, moving the ball at will through the air while adding a competent ground game. It was a welcome development for a defense that's the real real deal. They should be able to give Cousins trouble in the pocket.
Very excited to see Justin Jefferson and Sauce square up. Should be the biggest test of the rookie corner's young, impressive career. How well they contain him will directly impact how well New York can hang. Dalvin Cook should struggle to find room to rumble in the run game, which will put a lot of pressure on the Vikings' QB to get it done.
Love Mike White, could definitely flip on this take, but I'm going to take Minnesota to get the job done at home. Kirk loves his 1 PM'ers.
Washington Commanders (-2.5) at New York Giants
Humongous NFC East affair up in the Meadowlands. These two teams are riding very different waves of momentum right now. The Commanders have won six out of seven to go from a lottery pick team to a playoff contender. The Giants have lost three out of four games, with their only win over coming against the lowly Texans.
Over half of their turnovers on the season have come during this losing stretch. There's a direct correlation between that and their record's decline--this team was never equipped to overcome large amounts of adversity. Saquon Barkley has still been a force, but Daniel Jones is becoming less of a viable starter with each passing game. His practice squad receiving core isn't doing him any favors, but he was always going to be the one to limit this offense's potential.
Taylor Heinicke isn't exactly a world beater of a QB in his own right, but he's been a spark plug for a talented Washington offense. Terry McLaurin has been rejuvenated with Heinicke under center and should have some good opportunities to shine against the G-Men. Brian Robinson and Antonio Gibson will contribute as well against this weakening front seven.
Give me the Commanders with ease in this one, these teams are going in two different directions.
Tennessee Titans at Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5)
AJ Brown revenge game! Philadelphia will be hosting their WR1's former team in their first showdown since the blockbuster draft-day trade. It should be a huge day through the air for Brown and Jalen Hurts against the league's second worst pass defense. Not as easy sledding for Hurts or Miles Sanders on the ground however, as the Titans' boast the third stingiest run defense. It'll be interesting to see how the Eagles react if they're forced to be more one dimensional than usual.
Philly's defense is somewhat the opposite, being strong against the pass yet more exploitable by running backs, especially since Jordan Davis' injury. Not an optimistic forecast with Derrick Henry coming to town. If he can grind out yards and help Tennessee control the clock, it'll make a tremendous impact on this game.
I think the Eagles win a close one with the Titans getting the cover. Also hammer the AJ Brown anytime touchdown prop.
Denver Broncos at Baltimore Ravens (-8.5)
Not a mathematical must-win game for the Ravens by any stretch, but it would be a "MACH-5 sound the alarms" type scenario if we let Dangeruss Wilson and the Broncos ride into town and steal a victory.
My biggest reservation as a Ravens fan is in the passing game. This Denver secondary is elite and there's not a single receiver that matches up well against them. Mark Andrews needs to be big if Lamar is going to have success through the air. Curious to see what type of running lanes Baltimore can create with such minimal threat over the top.
Marcus Peters got worked by the Jaguars, but has a perfect opportunity to bounce back against Russ. There's a chance Jerry Jeudy is able to play in this one, which would give Denver two strong receivers against an up and down secondary. The Ravens cannot give up big plays or allow Latavius Murray to follow up on his strong game a week ago, otherwise this game will be much more interesting then it needs to be.
I hesitate to pick Baltimore to win this...but I think I have just a little less faith in Nathaniel Hackett and the Broncos right now. I don't think a cover is out of the question, which would likely be the result of a gross, nearly unwatchable game. The under should hit too.
Cleveland Browns (-7.5) at Houston Texans
Welcome back to H-Town Deshaun Watson. It should quite a reception for the maligned quarterback to the team that took him in the first round of the 2017 draft. It'll be his first time in live game action in almost two calendar years, so there'll undoubtedly be some rust to shake off. Fortunately for him, the Texans are far and away the worst run defense in the league and should be mauled by Nick Chubb. The Browns could probably win this game without passing.
Kyle Allen will be back at the helm for Houston. Not sure how much more I need to elaborate on that; Myles Garrett's going to have a new tombstone for his Halloween set up next year. Dameon Pierce is worth starting in fantasy against an iffy run D, but he's going to see a ton of stacked boxes. Don't expect anything exciting from their receivers either.
I like the under here in a game that should feature a lot of running and a lot of questions at quarterback. No reason Cleveland shouldn't hand Houston their 10th loss of the season.
Seattle Seahawks (-7.5) at Los Angeles Rams
Easily the worst game of a loaded four o'clock block, with Seattle travelling to SoFi to play the shitty, Super Bowl defending Rams. The Seahawks started the season so strong, but have tailed of late, dropping their last two. This is a win they have to get in order to keep their playoff push on track.
Luckily for them, LA has been a dumpster fire of poor play, mistakes and injuries. Matthew Stafford is all but officially out this week, meaning we'd be subjected to another round of Bryce Perkins. Without his top two receivers, behind a terrible offensive line and almost no motivation to try and turn things around. Yikes...
Pete Carroll won't allow Seattle to lose this game. They should, and will, destroy the Rams.
Miami Dolphins at San Francisco 49ers (-3.5)
Very interesting game out in Santa Clara between the explosive Dolphins and the rock steady 49ers. So many different directions this game could go. The biggest storyline to watch out involves the health of Miami's stud left tackle Terron Armstead, who left the Texans game early last Sunday with a triceps injury. The prognosis was initially pessimistic but there now is a growing chance he plays this week.
His presence would be essential against a deep and talented San Fran front seven. Tua was sacked four times on just nine drop backs post-injury against a substantially less skilled Houston D-line. If he doesn't have best enforcer for this one, it could be a long day for the QB. If Armstead can play however, the Niners secondary isn't great, which could open up some shots downfield for Hill and Waddle.
It remains to be seen who'll be the RB1 for San Francisco with Christian McCaffery banged up and Elijah Mitchell recently being placed on the IR. It feels like CMC will get at least a limited snap count, but expect to see a decent bit of Jordan Mason and Tyrion Davis-Price as the 49ers try to play bully ball and keep the Dolphins' dynamic weapons off the field.
I think the Niners find a way to win this at home but that Miami cashes the cover. 46.5 feels a little high here too for the over.
Kansas City Chiefs (-2.5) at Cincinnati Bengals
Difficult decision, but this here's the game of the week. Clear, crisp evening up in Cincinnati for an AFC Championship rematch. Two scorching hot teams are set to meet, with the hosts having won four of five, while the visiting Chiefs have won five straight. Something's gotta give!
Kansas City's utilized running back Isiah Pacheco much more frequently during this win streak to pace the offense. The rookie's averaged just over 4.6 YPC over their last five wins, really establishing himself as the bell cow in this offense. They hope he can bring some explosiveness and balance this week to keep an upward-trending Cincy D at bay. Patrick Mahomes is obviously going to be heavily involved, but his receiving core is banged up, including scat back Jerrick McKinnon. It could be a real patchwork group of pass catchers out there for the former MVP.
The Bengals have firmly bounced back from a slow start, appearing to be one of the top teams in the AFC. Joe Mixon and Ja'Marr Chase's return to the field will only boost how dangerous they can be. This team has no shortage of weapons, but surely stand only to gain by getting their best two back. Will they be pacing the way scoring wise or playing catchup?
My prediction is neither. I think this is going to be a scrappy, knockdown, drag out kind of game between two teams trying to dominate the other. Give me the Chiefs to get it done on the road in a tightly contested affair. Loving the under too, currently at around 53.
Los Angeles Chargers (-1.5) at Las Vegas Raiders
Josh Jacobs season so far has been a rushing pattern: three games under 100, three games over, three games under...and he's currently on two straight over. A date against the fifth worst run D in the NFL screams for this trend to continue. Expect him to get no less then twenty carries in this one if their defense can keep it close. Davante Adams is going to feast too on this beat up LA secondary.
It'll be up to Chargers' QB Justin Herbert to keep up. Keenan Allen effectively returned to action last week with a 5/49/1 line, and will go a long way in aiding that. Austin Ekeler is going to get a ton of touches, as should Josh Palmer in what should be a fun back and forth out in Sin City.
I love the over on this game and think the Raiders actually get the job done at home.
Indianapolis Colts at Dallas Cowboys (-11.5)
All that prime action at four o'clock and we're left with this stinker on Sunday Night Football. The Colts were fun for like two weeks with Jeff Saturday, beating the Raiders and nearly upsetting Philadelphia, but it feels like some of the interim coach shine is worn off at this point. This matchup will show us just how much.
Micah Parsons may literally murder Matt Ryan on the field Sunday night. The Dallas' offense should have plenty of success on the ground and air. It doesn't even feel like Mike McCarthy can find a way to botch this one.
Dallas by multiple scores, further establishing themselves as a force in the NFC.
New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3.5) (Monday 12/5)
From one bad prime time game to a worse one! A damn shame that such an incredible week of football needs to end on these two sour notes. Bucs-Saints, round two.
Andy Dalton did not start in these teams week two matchup, so it'll at least be a different look for the Tampa defense. No reason another three interceptions isn't on the table though! Alvin Kamara is less then 100% and won't have a ton of operating room-- borderline benchable in fantasy.
Tom Brady has a chance to sweep a team that's given him a world of trouble since joining the Bucs. The first game between these two was tied at 3-3 going into the fourth quarter, so we don't expect a lot of scoring. It'll be worth watching Mike Evans square off with Marshon Lattimore again; will the extracurricular tension bubble over with both teams frustrated and underachieving?
Hit the under and don't hit your snooze Tuesday morning; no need to stay up for this game. Tampa should win as they continue their half-assed push to win the NFC South.
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@Choppinglines
*This is not gambling advice, just our opinions. Consider at your own risk
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