All 32 teams on deck here for week 15 and beyond! The bye weeks are over, fantasy playoffs are among us and the NFL postseason picture is starting to solidify. A ton to track this weekend, should be a fun one. This is how we see things going.
San Francisco 49ers (-3.5) at Seattle Seahawks (Thursday 12/15)
Borderline must win game for Seattle on Thursday. They started the season 6-3 and looked the part, with Geno Smith playing clean football, a strong run game and a young defense that was playing well. They're 1-3 since then, having to deal with injuries to their backfield and Smith forcing the ball a bit more as a result. Their recent loss at home to Carolina was a huge blow.
It doesn't get much easier on a short week against a 49ers team playing as well as any team not named the Eagles. Brock Purdy and the Niners are coming off of a 35-7 dismantling of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and should have a ton of momentum going into this one. Deebo Samuel won't be available, but fortunately he should be back in action for the postseason. Christian McCaffery and George Kittle should have big days though.
Love the 9ers here. Defense travels and they've got the best in the business. They're going to give Geno a ton of trouble while suffocating the run game, en route to a win, cover, and NFC West clinching.
Indianapolis Colts at Minnesota Vikings (-4.5) (Saturday 12/17)
Interesting matchup to kick off our Saturday slate. At a glance, this should be easy work for the Vikings, but their defense has been abysmal the last month, particularly the pass D. Fortunately for them, the Colts are better in the run game; but Matt Ryan has had a couple very productive games against lesser secondaries this season. He won't see a worse one then Minnesota's.
Kirk Cousins is definitely better in the early games then late, which plays into their favor here. Stephon Gilmore will likely draw (and struggle against) Justin Jefferson all afternoon. Jefferson's emphatically established himself as the top wideout in the league this season-- must watch TV. The Colts' have been good against the pass though, so I've got a Thielen that Adam won't have a great day.
Despite their 10-3 record, Minnesota still has a -1 point differential. That won't get much better after this game. I'll take them to win but Indy covers.
Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns (-2.5) (Saturday 12/17)
Tyler Huntley is back practicing in a limited capacity, which is huge news for anxious Ravens fans who don't want to watch four quarters of Anthony Brown (*Raises hand*). If he's able to play, it greatly increases their chances of getting the dub. JK Dobbins and Gus Edwards looked revitalized in the backfield last week, even with a third string QB in. Cleveland allows a lot of yards on the ground too, which should provide Baltimore a very clear road map to success.
The Browns' offense has disappointed since the return of Deshaun Watson. Time will tell if he can shake the rust and get back to form, but it's going to be tough for him this week against a Ravens' defense that's been playing really well-- outside of the fourth quarter versus Jacksonville. If Cleveland can get Nick Chubb going, they should be able to control the clock and put up some points. But if not, it could be a tough day for Watson testing Marlon Humphrey and Marcus Peters downfield.
Hard to pick this game until the quarterback situation is clear in Baltimore. Give me the Ravens close with Huntley or Cleveland close if Anthony Brown gets the nod. Hit the under while you're at it.
Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (-7.5) (Saturday 12/17)
This Saturday night matchup has potential for some real fireworks, assuming Tua can break out of his recent rut. Huge AFC playoff implications as well with Miami on a two game losing streak.
The Bills didn't shine against the Jets last week, but few teams have this season, so no need to downplay how big of a divisional win it was. Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs were relatively contained, but the defense played big and the offensive unit as a whole did enough to get it done. Miami presents a more exploitable opponent, especially after seeing what Justin Herbert did to them last week. Expect big bounce back games from those two in the first round of the fantasy championships.
There have been stretches this season where Tua's been the best quarterback in the league, at least statistically. We've harkened on the fact that he doesn't always pass the eye test and is often bailed out by his elite receiving duo. Seems that we've reached a regression to the mean of sorts with his struggles the last two weeks, with another tough defense on deck. Throw in the bad weather that's expected up in Buffalo and this game wreaks dud for the Miami quarterback; and subsequently the entire offense.
Buffalo wins and covers in a game that's sure to not live up to it's excitement potential. I think the Bills get it done rather easily too, further exposing the Dolphins' issues.
Philadelphia Eagles (-10.5) at Chicago Bears
Out to the windy city we go for a Sunday affair between the 12-1 Eagles and the lowly Bears.
Not going to spend a lot of time on this one. Chicago has no weapons on offense to challenge a top Philly D, especially if Justin Fields does end up sitting out. Their defense is a shell and will likely get gashed on the ground, setting up AJ Brown and Devonta Smith to punish them through the air. I'll actually put a semi-bold prediction that the Eagles rush for over 200 yards as a team in this one.
This won't be a good game. The Bears shouldn't even want to win and mess with their current draft position. Eagles by 20+, they might hit the over by themselves.
Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints (-4.5)
Desmond Ridder szn is upon us! The rookie from Cincinnati was given the starting role during the bye week, giving him ample time for preparation. Marcus Mariota was also placed on injured reserve with a knee injury during their time off. Hard to say what decision prefaced the other, but hey, we're excited to see the dynamic third rounder get to work.
He'll be without top target Kyle Pitts, but Drake London should be in for a good bit of looks. Given their lack of receiver depth and bevy of viable running backs, it's weird they don't plug Cordarelle Patterson in the slot a bit more. Ridder should be able to create some offense of his own with his legs, which the Saints will need to respect.
Another Andy Dalton game for us fans to suffer through. I apologize for calling for him to start earlier in the season, it's clear why it was Jameis' job out the gate. Hopefully he can earn it back soon... AJ Terrell should be matched up all game on Chris Olave, which should limit New Orleans' WR1. Maybe Alvin Kamara will grace fantasy owners with a respectable line? He's been thoroughly ineffective his last five games and Atlanta's a bottom eight run defense. He only totaled 46 yards on 12 touches in their first matchup though, so plenty of room for disappointment.
I actually like Atlanta outright in this game. Dalton will suck per usual and Ridder will add a spark the Falcons' offense has been sorely lacking in recent weeks. I can't imagine either team putting up many points either.
Detroit Lions at New York Jets (- 1/2)
A bit surprised to see New York open as the slight favorites in a huge matchup between two unlikely playoff-hopefuls. The Jets are coming off a hard fought defeat in Buffalo that resulted in Mike White being taken to the hospital post game by ambulance, leaving them with a little uncertainty under center.
Zach Wilson was announced as starter, much to the dismay of the Jets' faithful. It'll be up to the New York offensive line to keep him upright and healthy. Unfortunately, they've done a terrible job of that lately, and Aidan Hutchinson has been a force for Detroit's front seven. Jeff Okudah and Garrett Wilson should provide some fun battles during the afternoon, both guys have been playing really solid ball over the last month.
The Lions will go as Jared Goff goes. He's never been a guy to excel while under pressure, which is exactly what New York is going to try and do to him early and often. Quinnen Williams being less then 100% won't hurt Detroit's efforts in that regard, but the Jets' have plenty of other guys who can give him trouble. Amon Ra St. Brown and DJ Chark will have their hands full with Sauce Gardner and DJ Reed, meaning we could see a good bit of targets for D'Andre Swift, Josh Reynolds and Jameson Williams.
I love the under in this game. Gang Green's defense is tailor made to give Goff fits, while their offense has a few too many question marks right now. I'll also take the Lions to get it done late, especially with Wilson now getting the start.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Carolina Panthers (-2.5)
Against every odd...Sam Darnold has put the Panthers in a position to make a legitimate playoff push. Their win at Seattle last Sunday was not a pretty performance, but it was a blueprint for how Carolina is going to compete: running the ball a lot, playing adequate defense and no mistakes from their quarterback. Easier said then done of course.
Chuba Hubbard's turned the backfield into a full committee, which gives the Panthers two workhorses to pound the rock with. DJ Moore won't be 100%, but he's not going to miss this massive game. His absence would've left a huge hole out wide, as Carolina really has no replacement for him. We'll see how their offensive line can do against TJ Watt.
It's up in the air who'll be under center for Pittsburgh. Kenny Pickett is going to get the start if he's cleared, but he's currently healing up from his second concussion, making this a true question mark. After Mitch Trubisky's three interception relief effort, the Steelers' are understandably considering a Mason Rudolph start. Whoever gets the nod though will have some solid weapons to work with in Diontae Johnson and George Pickens. It's up to them to get them the ball with room to work.
Which I think the Steelers' will be able to do. No way Mike Tomlin loses a game to Sam Darnold and this Panthers' offense. Hit the under and Pittsburgh money line on your way to the bank.
Dallas Cowboys (-5.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars
Trevor Lawrence has been incredible over the last five weeks, posting an immaculate 10:0 TD:INT ratio. He'll be facing a Cowboys team that's also been red hot, but has shown some flaws, barely squeaking out a turnover-ridden victory over Houston last Sunday.
If the Jacksonville offensive line can keep Micah Parsons at bay, it'd go a long way in setting the team up for success. He's been an absolute game wrecker and will be again Sunday if he's uncontained. If they can slow him down though, Lawrence should be able to cook from the pocket, setting up big days for Christian Kirk and Zay Jones. The health of Travis Etienne's foot will be something worth monitoring too, they're a much more dynamic offense when he's at full strength.
The Cowboys biggest heel has been turnovers. They had three last week, which was the key reason why a 1-10-1 team took them down to the wire. Tony Pollard and Ezekiel Elliott have been consistently solid, but the Jags are a sneaky good run defense. Should be some good matchups there. Safety blanket Dalton Schultz will likely have a tough run against a defensive unit that's strong against the tight end.
Jacksonville's burnt me as recently as two weeks ago...but I'm starting to really believe in Trevor Lawrence. They should at least cover in this one, but I'd venture to say they win it outright! The over looks tasty too, currently at 47.5.
Kansas City Chiefs (-14.5) at Houston Texans
The Texans were one yard from beating Dallas as 17-point underdogs, while the Chiefs nearly blew a 27 point lead to the shitty Broncos. Lots of different momentum waves to consider with that being said.
Dameon Pierce is set to miss this week with a high ankle sprain, which doesn't fare well for Houston. The rookie running back's easily been the Texans' best offensive weapon this season, and his absence leaves them to split carries between Dare Ogunbowale and Rex Burkhead-- a real who's who. Also some questions about who'll be starting quarterback too. They split snaps between Davis Mills and Jeff Driskel against the Cowboys with some surprising success. It wouldn't be a surprise for them to try the same strategy again. They'll be without Brandin Cooks and Nico Collins; Chris Moore- target machine.
As good as KC can be, they do tend to play down to their opponents, at least in terms of covering spreads. Their receivers aren't super explosive and the Texans have an underrated secondary, which should lead to nice receiving lines for Travis Kelce and Jerrick McKinnon. Isiah Pacheco should roll on the ground too-- it'd be surprising if he didn't top twenty carries.
Chiefs will not lose this game, but I also don't think they'll cover. The over at 49.5 is has some potential too.
Arizona Cardinals at Denver Broncos (-2.5)
This game was going to suck with Kyler Murray and Russell Wilson under center. Now that we're going to be subjected to Brett Rypien and Colt McCoy...this is absolutely must avoid television.
Broncos defense should give the Cards a ton of trouble. Brett Rypien should struggle against a decent Arizona D in it's own right. Hit the under and Broncos money line. Not sure who'll cover, terrible game.
New England Patriots (-1.5) at Las Vegas Raiders
The Patriots are clinging onto their playoff hopes for dear life, while Vegas looks to play spoiler after having their postseason dreams dashed last Thursday. Some potential for a fun matchup here.
Rhamondre Stevenson seems unlikely to play, at least at full strength. That'll have a huge impact on the Pats' offense, who've run through their RB1 the last two months. Damien/Kevin Harris and Pierre Strong will need to step up if he's unable to go. Devante Parker is still up in the air also after his concussion last week. New England should have enough on offense without those two, but they certainly wouldn't hurt.
The Raiders royally blew a golden opportunity to win last Thursday at the Rams, making it very possible for some of their players to pack it in. Davante Adams and Derek Carr won't be those guys and should feast against a young and banged up Patriots secondary. Darren Waller should be back in action too; it'll be curious to see how he looks after such a long layoff. Josh Jacobs will get a nice number of totes in what should be a pretty close game.
I like the over to cover late here and I'll take the Raiders by slight upset.
Tennessee Titans at Los Angeles Chargers (-3.5)
Weird, possible value here: I love Tennessee as the underdogs in this one. The Chargers are coming off of a huge victory Sunday night over Miami and terrible at starting the run. As somebody who's seen many Chargers games in the past, it screams let down spot.
LA's wide receivers are now back to 100% and were extremely productive against the Dolphins, putting on display the type of danger they can pose as a unit. Justin Herbert picked apart their cornerbacks with ease, and should face even less resistance tomorrow. The Titans are terrible at defending the pass, so they'll have some opportunities to shine.
But they'll be limited in possessions with Derrick Henry being fed the rock constantly. 30 carries is his floor in a matchup that Tennessee really needs to exploit in order to win. Treylon Burks will miss another week with a concussion, meaning more looks for Austin Hooper, Chigoziem Okonkwo and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine. The Titans don't want to see a Tannehill pass often though.
Backs against the wall, Jags on their heels, Tennessee steals one on the road to stay afloat. The over seems reasonable too with both defenses weaknesses.
Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
I'm not sure the Bucs even think they can win this game. They look defeated on the field emotionally and mentally, just tired of a long, unfulfilling season where they haven't even shined in their wins. They toppled Dallas week one, in what turns out to be a quality dub, but have been a shell of themselves since. Tampa's outscored opponents by a total of 25 in their other five victories and have only scored over 21 points in two games this season. With Leonard Fournette, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin...Tom Brady. It's a mess in the Sunshine State, break out your brooms Cincy.
Tee Higgins should* play this week after his ominous single snap a week ago. He'll help take some attention off of star Ja'Marr Chase, who should be productive as well. Don't expect a huge day from Joe Mixon, but this offense should hum overall.
Bengals win on the road to keep pace with Baltimore in the AFC North race. The Bucs might/should be able to cover at least.
New York Giants at Washington Commanders (-4.5)
Huge NFC wildcard implications in this game. These two teams met two weeks ago, with the result being a tie... Not fully out of the realm of possibilities again here.
Washington is coming off a bye while the G-Men come into town after being steamrolled by Philadelphia-- quite a range of emotions. The Commanders' front seven should have success against a depleted New York offensive line, giving Daniel Jones trouble in the pocket and limiting Saquon on the ground. Terry McLaurin should post a nice stat line on the offensive side too.
Not a ton of insight into this scrap, it should be a tightly contested battle with a lot on the line. Washington will get it done at home but I'll take a Giants cover.
Los Angeles Rams at Green Bay Packers (-6.5) (Monday 12/19)
Gross. Just a gross Monday night game. Jalen Ramsey vs. Christian Watson should be cool? Nice test for the rookie. Seems like it'll be Aaron Rodgers and not Jordan Love under center for Green Bay, which isn't really too fun a storyline either. Aaron Jones will probably struggle to find running room. Baker and Akers won't have as much success as they did against the shitty Raiders.
Those are pretty much my only takes on this game. Won't be tuning in for much. Gimme the Packers winning, Rams covering. Even without Donald, their defense isn't that bad.
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@Choppinglines
*This is not gambling advice, just our opinions. Consider at your own risk
*I own no rights to any images found in this blog
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