Already off to a rough start with these with the Raiders blowing in legendary fashion to the Rams last night. What a league, what a league. Here's my incorrect take on that game and the rest of the week 14 block!
Las Vegas Raiders (-6.5) at Los Angeles Rams (Thursday 12/8)
The Raiders have been playing much better ball, winning three straight games. Josh Jacobs has been a big part of that, racking up 482 rushing yards in those games. The Rams have been tough to run against but Aaron Donald will likely be on the shelf, which won't help their effort. Davante Adams versus Jalen Ramsey should be fun too.
John Wolford wasn't great against Seattle, but they did move the ball and put up 23 points. You think Denver fans would take a game like that? Cam Akers had a mini resurgence, rewarding incredibly patient and/or desperate fantasy owners with two touchdowns. Las Vegas is pretty good against the run, so don't expect another showing like that. There's no receiver worth starting fantasy-wise either.
Rough Thursday night game here...the Raiders make it four straight and cover. Josh Jacobs should rumble against on the ground.
EDIT: I was very wrong about this one...
New York Jets at Buffalo Bills (-9.5)
Big rematch from a month ago, when we saw Zach Wilson and the Jets take Buffalo down. Now Mike White will get his shot to take down the preseason Super Bowl favorites. White threw for a ton of yards against Minnesota, but they couldn't cash in in the red zone, which ultimately was their undoing in a five point loss. The Bills are missing some key pieces on defense, which New York's talented receivers may be able to exploit.
Josh Allen struggled some against an elite Jets' defense in their first matchup, barely completing half his passes and throwing two picks. He was very effective with his legs however, which may be his easier route to success in this one too. Devin Singletary and James Cook have ran well lately too. Buffalo utilizing some play action would surely help Allen to get going through the air.
9.5 feels like too many points against a defense this good. If White can avoid turnovers, the Jets should hang all game. Buffalo will get the win, but the Jets should cover.
Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals (-6.5)
The Bengals are as healthy as they've been in a while and look as hot as any team in the league. For some reason, they can't seem to get past the Browns, who stomped Cincy by 19 on Halloween. Deshaun Watson looked very bad in his debut and will be looking to rebound against a sneaky good defense. It's hard to imagine he looks worse, and Nick Chubb should be able to find room to run.
Will they keep up with the high powered Bengals offense? Will they run away with the game early like they did in week eight? That'll depend if Myles Garrett can get after Burrow as viciously as he did in their first showdown. He racked up 1.5 sacks and four QB hits. Cincinnati's offensive line has played better since then and Ja'Marr Chase will be playing in this second divisional affair, so many different variables than before.
I think the Bengals get the monkey off their back and beat Cleveland. It's hard to imagine Watson's play improving that drastically in a week of practice and Cincy's offense should have more success than on Halloween. 6.5 points may be a bit rich.
Houston Texans at Dallas Cowboys (-17.5)
I guess they have to allow each team to play every game on their schedule, but something tells me the NFL could've let this one slide. Kyle Allen is thoroughly unexciting at quarterback, the offense has been stagnant and the defense horrendous (outside of Jalen Pitre and Derrick Stingley). This feels like a team going through the motions more then any I've ever seen.
Tony Pollard and Zeke should each break 100 yards on the ground. Dak probably won't need to do much. Micah Parsons will rack up 2+ sacks and probably force a fumble. Dallas should win this game by 30.
Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (-1.5)
Huge divisional scrum in the Motor City. The Lions have been as hot as any team in the league and their defense has surprisingly been a huge part of that. Rookies Aiden Hutchinson and Kerby Joseph have played great all season, and Jeff Okudah has recently started playing the best football of his career. They essentially shut down the Jags last week, who’d been playing well in their own right.
On the offensive side of the ball, Amon Ra St. Brown has been an absolute spark plug since his return from injury. D’Andre Swift also shouldered his first full load in the backfield since week one. If those two are/stay healthy, this team is capable of putting up points with the best of them. Imagine if they’re able to upgrade from Jared Goff this off-season?
The Vikings can clinch the division with a win here, which would be really impressive in the second week of December. They’re talented, battle tested, well coached and get the job done more often than not. They’ll need to fire on all cylinders on both sides of the ball to get the win this Sunday. Excited to see how Okudah fares vs Justin Jefferson; measuring stick kind of game.
I think I like the Lions to get it done here. Both teams are playing well but something tells me Detroit just wants this one a little more. Should be a close, fun game though. I could see the Vikings covering.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans (-3.5)
Speaking of the Jaguars…they’ll be rolling into Nashville for a date against the Titans Sunday. Both of these teams are coming off embarrassing road losses and will be trying to quickly get back on track.
It seems like Treylon Burks will be back for Tennessee, which instantly makes their offense more dynamic. Robert Woods is good but never was a true WR1, especially not after his ACL injury a year ago. Burks gives them that element. Derrick Henry should be able to improve upon his recent numbers also against a decent Jacksonville front seven. The Titans will go as far as he can take them.
Trevor Lawrence is fortunate to have dodged a major knee injury a week ago in his poor performance at Detroit. The Titans’ secondary is bad and hurt, so he should have some pretty nice windows to throw to Sunday—if his offensive line can keep him upright. As bad as Tennessee’s pass D is, they do collapse the pocket and get after the passer. Should be a nice day ahead for Christian Kirk. Not so much for Travis Etienne, who isn’t going to have a ton of room to run.
Give me the Titans at home to pick up the dub and cover. King Henry should feast on the ground as they tighten their grip on the AFC South.
Philadelphia Eagles (-7.5) at New York Giants
It seems like just yesterday the Giants were 6-1 and the darling of the league. Brian Daboll was a lock for coach of the year, while Saquon was primed for Comeback Player. Five weeks later..they’re sitting at 7-4-1, with their only win over Houston. Not quite a free fall, but pretty damn close.
The Eagles got Jordan Davis back in the middle of their front seven, really fortifying one of the few weak points on the team. He should slot in nicely with recent signings Linval Joseph and Ndamukong Suh to shut down the Giants’ run game. None of their corners will struggle against Darius Slayton or Richie James.
Jalen Hurts and the offense should face a little more resistance than Tennessee gave them a week ago, but still should have no trouble putting up points. After only averaging 2.8 YPC last week, expect them to really reestablish the run against a Giants D that’s allowing 141 YPG on the ground.
The offensive balance will be too much for the G-Men to handle. Philly should win this one going away, adding to the concerns New York’s dealing with.
Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5)
Big matchup in the AFC North between two old time rivals. The game loses some of it's luster with Lamar Jackson on the mend, but given how up and down the Ravens offense had been anyway, Tyler Huntley should be able to provide them with a chance to win. Getting Ronnie Stanley back is a huge addition. He'll be asked to neutralize TJ Watt as often as possible. Gus Edwards may have a little bit of room to work in the run game too.
I'm not the biggest believer in Kenny Pickett, but he's done his part the last few weeks in helping the Steelers not lose. Baltimore has a tough set of corners who'll challenge the rookie, but you can't sleep on a big play from George Pickens. Najee Harris has been better lately also, but will also have tough sledding against the Ravens front seven.
I like Baltimore to get a big, divisional win on the road over the Steelers and think the defense is going to be the difference. Hit the under in this too.
Kansas City Chiefs (-10.5) at Denver Broncos
Man this game looked a lot better 3 months ago then it does now. Kansas City should be fired up after a tight loss to Cincinnati. Problem is, Denver’s ferocious defense doesn’t make for an easiest matchup. If they can’t get Kelce going through the air, it could be a much harder game than expected. The Chiefs are notorious for not covering as big favorites too.
Luckily for them, Russell Wilson and the Broncos have no teeth on offense. Courtland Sutton is set to miss this game, priming Jerry Jeudy for at least a few extra targets. Given the QB situation, can’t imagine it translates to much. Latavius Murray’s been pretty alright the last few weeks and should carry that over here if the game script permits.
Chiefs won’t drop a second straight, but I think Denver’s elite defense keeps this one interesting, allowing them to cover -10.5.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at San Francisco 49ers (-3.5)
It's crazy to me that a team led by Brock Purdy is favored by 3.5 points over one led by Tom Brady, but that's the state of each of these teams right now. The 49ers defense has been the best in the league, they run the ball effectively and the rookie QB looked more then capable of managing the offense in his relief effort. A winning recipe, especially in the waning weeks of the season.
The Buccaneers have been barely squeaking by, but they have won three out of four. The loss of offensive tackle Tristan Wirfs is going to really be felt against Nick Bosa and the Niners ferocious front seven. Tom Brady's certainly not a mobile quarterback and should be under a ton of pressure all afternoon, which will impact how effective his talented receivers can be. They're really going to struggle to move the ball, even if their defense can give them a short field or two.
San Francisco should win this behind their strong D. Not 100% sold on the cover as of typing this. Tune in Sunday for that decision.
Carolina Panthers at Seattle Seahawks (-3.5)
Sam Darnold vs. Geno Smith. Who'd have thought this game would have playoff implications when it was scheduled? The Panthers have played better with Darnold then Baker, but they're still a pretty gross offense to stomach. DJ Moore and Tariq Woolen will provide some fun battles for much of the afternoon and Donta Foreman should be alright, but don't expect any real fireworks.
Geno appeared on the injury report late this week with a shoulder injury, which is a little concerning for Seahawks fans. Carolina has a sneaky good defense and could give him some trouble if he's not at 100%. Kenneth Walker's injury unfortunately derails his push for the Offensive Rookie of the Year, but DK Metcalf has been a monster in recent weeks and should be able to make up for the loss. Assuming his QB can hit him.
Seahawks win at home, but Carolina covers late. This game looks iffy on paper but has some potential to be entertaining.
Miami Dolphins (-3.5) at Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers are remarkable at underachieving. Injuries or not, this team has too much talent to be underperforming the way they do year in and year out. This is a huge game for them if they want to remain in the hunt for a wild card spot. The Dolphins pass defense is middle of the pack, so Justin Herbert could put up some good numbers, if they can keep Bradley Chubb off of him. Keenan Allen hasn't really skipped a beat since his return, and it feels like Austin Ekeler is due for a big day.
Miami's loss to San Francisco was brutal, really revealing some potential issues with the team. The offense was a bit stagnant outside of two long passing plays to Trent Sherfield and Tyreek Hill, but the Chargers' banged up secondary is much less imposing. If their offensive line can keep Tua upright, he should have plenty of windows to hit. Jeff Wilson and/or Raheem Mostert should have room to run on the ground too.
Dolphins bounce back and beat the Chargers on the road Sunday night. Too many weapons for LA to contain.
New England Patriots (-1/2) at Arizona Cardinals (Monday 12/12)
The Pats travel to the desert to square off with Kliff Kingsbury and the Cardinals. Despite the travel, there really isn't any home field advantage to speak of. Kingsbury is 10-20 at home as head coach of the Cardinals, even with a $230 million quarterback.
This game could go a number of directions. Deandre Hopkins should have success against New England's young corners. Neither team should run the ball too well. Kyler and Mac Jones will probably be pretty underwhelming, outside of a flash play or two. This Monday night showdown should be a little disappointing as a whole.
Let me get the Cards at home, going against the grain of their recent home play! The Patriots have struggled against mobile quarterbacks this season and will again Monday.
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@Choppinglines
*This is not gambling advice, just our opinions. Consider at your own risk
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