Week 13 Starts, Sits and Sleepers
Another up and down set of picks for week 12, nailing our Justin Herbert and Tee Higgins starts but really striking out with our suggestions to bench DJ Moore or Trevor Lawrence. Such is life with the calculated crap shoot of fantasy football.
Playoffs are on deck and managers are grinding to secure their spots in the postseason. Gotta get these picks right...no pressure... Week 13:
Starts
Trevor Lawrence @ DET: Lawrence diced a much more formidable Baltimore secondary a week ago and now looks to carry that momentum up to the Motor City. Detroit's cornerbacks aren't nearly up to Marlon Humphrey and Marcus Peters' level, so he should have some success in what should be a fun back and forth. I've got the Jags' QB tossing three scores for the second game in a row, and third time this season.
Mike White @ MIN: The Mike White train marches on! The Jets' polarizing backup-turned-starter had a supreme showing against a weak Chicago defense in his 2022 debut. He now goes up to Minneapolis to face the worst pass defense in the NFL. Will it be another Mike White vintage explosion, or will he come barreling down to Earth like he did last year in a 4-INT game against Buffalo? I think the former this week! Feelin' another 300 yard game from the kid.
Aaron Jones @ CHI: The Bears have one of the worst run defenses in the league and the Packers will either be starting a banged up Aaron Rodgers or an inexperienced Jordan Love under center. Smells like a recipe to pound the rock. Jones will split some touches with AJ Dillon but is still undeniably the lead dog. 120+ total yards and a touchdown or two on double digit touches should be his floor.
Nick Chubb @ HOU: Worst run defense in the league, meet arguably the league's best back. We expect Deshaun Watson to have some rust(y Hardin), so the Browns would be wise to establish the ground game with their workhorse. Chubb should easily rack up over 20 carries and clear the century mark. I'd say 150+ rushing yards is more likely then under triple digits.
Garrett Wilson @ MIN: The Jets' #10 pick has 49 catches for 628 yards and 4 touchdowns through the first 11 games of his rookie season. His splits for those games with and without Zach Wilson at QB are:
-26 catches, 319 yards, 0 touchdowns in 7 games w/Wilson
-23 catches, 309 yards, 4 touchdowns in 4 games w/o Wilson
Pretty apparent that he's a more impactful player with anybody but last years #2 pick at QB. He'll be squaring off against the worst pass D in the league with Mike White throwing him the ball. He should find the end zone and secure at least six catches in this one.
AJ Brown vs. TEN: Revenge game vs. the team that drafted and cast off the Eagles' WR1. The Titans also happen to be the second worst pass defense of the league. AJ Brown should at least catch one score while racking up some big yardage. He could very well end up the WR1 this week.
George Kittle vs. MIA: The Niners tight end has been up and down this season, but he's gashed vulnerable opponents. Miami's the third worst in the league at guarding the tight end position, which screams "vulnerable opponent". Deebo and Christian McCaffery are also less then 100%, meaning more targets for Georgie. Look for him to find pay dirt and snag at least five balls.
Sits
Marcus Mariota vs. PIT: TJ Watt is back for Pittsburgh and their defense is ramping up accordingly, even if he hasn't produced any gaudy personal numbers. Marcus Mariota's top target Kyle Pitts is now out for the year, not that it really impacted his passing numbers anyway. Mike Tomlin crushes subpar quarterbacks like this. Ugly day ahead in the ATL for Mariota.
Ryan Tannehill @ PHI: Ryan Tannehill has actually been decent since his return from injury, but faces a stiff challenge in the Eagles elite secondary. Throw in the fact that Derrick Henry should have some running room and it's easy to see why we're down on the Tennessee quarterback. This should be a hard fought contest for whoever comes out on top. Don't expect big numbers from Tannehill though.
Miles Sanders vs. TEN: For as bad as Tennessee is at stopping the pass, they're equally dominant at slowing the run. Miles Sanders went bonkers against an overrated Green Bay defense last Sunday night, so his stock is as high as ever right now, but this is an unenviable matchup. He'll come back to Earth swiftly against the Titans as Philly gashes them through the air.
Jeff Wilson @ SF: From the start list to the sit list in just one week! What a fickle blog we can be... Wilson didn't shine nearly to the extent we thought he would against Houston and now gets a much stiffer test with a healthy San Francisco front seven. He'll be missing Terron Armstead and Austin Jackson on his offensive line as well. The Dolphins are likely to have success through the air if they're going to steal one out in Santa Clara, spelling a dull day for their RB1.
Adam Thielen vs. NYJ: Sauce Gardner's been excellent and should be matched up with Justin Jefferson all afternoon. Adam Thielen will draw DJ Reed however, a difficult assignment in it's own right. He popped a week ago, but the Jets defense is legit and will give him and his quarterback trouble in the air and pocket. I've got a Thielen he's in for an off day against New York.
Courtland Sutton @ BAL: Jerry Jeudy returning would certainly help alleviate some of the pressure on Sutton, but expect him to see a ton of Marlon Humphrey regardless. Russell Wilson's playing as bad as any quarterback in the league right now, which also doesn't help matters. Not a good spot for the former SMU star in Baltimore.
Any Ravens Receiver vs. DEN: Denver's secondary is superb and Lamar hasn't jived well with his wideouts of late. I don't expect either receiver to have more then a couple of catches, neither clearing fifty yards.
Austin Hooper @ PHI: The Titans tight end started the season really slow but has really come on the least month or so. Tough matchup against the Eagles, who've allowed 6th fewest points allowed to the position. He'll have easier matchups then Treylon Burks or Robert Woods, so he may draw some volume, but shouldn't be able to do much with it. No need to drop Hooper, but not worth the start this week.
Sleepers
Derek Carr vs. LAC: Wanted to put Jordan Love here, but it seems like Aaron Rodgers will be getting the nod, so not a ton of good sleeper options here. The Raiders are going to run the ball all afternoon but Carr will take some deep shots to Davante Adams and Mack Hollins against the iffy Chargers cornerbacks. If he capitalizes, it could lead to a decent stat line.
Benny Snell @ ATL: Najee's health is very much up in the air, setting up Benny Snell and Jaylen Warren to committee the backfield in his absence. Snell's produced in limited touches, and we think he'll end up taking the bulk of the snaps. Volume + bad Falcons defense = potential for a nice day.
Kalif Raymond vs. JAX: Lots of scoring on deck for this game. Amon Ra's going to lead the way, but there should plenty of targets to go around as the Lions go back and forth with Jacksonville. That should provide Raymond with the opportunity to produce. It's very possible DJ Chark or Jameson Williams ends up being Detroit's WR2, but something tells me Kalif's the guy this week.
John Bates @ NYG: Logan Thomas didn't practice for much of the week, which should open up extra snaps for Bates. Taylor Heinicke showed good rapport with the tight end in Atlanta, connecting three times for 24 yards and a score. The Giants are surrendering just under nine fantasy points per game to the position. If you're in a tight pinch, Bates is an interesting dart throw.
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@Choppinglines
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