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| Turkie and the Sheriff- Thankskilling |
Busy travel week ahead with H-Town on the horizon, so we have to do a bit more condensed of a preview then we like to do. Let's see how it goes... Happy Thankskilling to all of you readers and followers, we're definitely thankful for you. Week twelve:
Buffalo Bills (-10.5) at Detroit Lions (Thursday 11/24)
Buffalo's going to be the away team for their second straight game in Detroit Rock City. They started slow last week but should be acclimated to that fresh Great Lakes air for this Thanksgiving affair.
The over at 54.5 seems like a lot of fun in this game..something tells me it won’t quite get there though. I see both these teams trying to establish the run as best they can, especially Detroit— as long as the game is close.
Temper expectations for Josh Allen here. Could easily be an explosion spot for him, but with his elbow less then 100% and Buffalo’s recent success running the ball, I could see his stat line being a bit modest. Stefon Diggs will find the end zone.
Bills win, Lions cover, over just misses.
New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (-10.5) (Thursday 11/24)
Two teams trending in very different directions. Outside of the fourth quarter in Lambeau, Dallas has been a buzz saw the last month. Tony Pollard and the offense is humming while Micah Parsons is a game wrecker on D. We expect him to sack Danny Dimes at least once.
The Giants need to avoid turnovers if they want to hang with this high octane Cowboys offense. Half of their giveaways have occurred in the last three games, resulting in two losses. If they give Dak and the boys opportune field position and force Daniel Jones to win them the game with his arm, it won’t end well.
Dallas wins handily on Thankskilling, sending the G Men into a faster tail spin.
New England Patriots at Minnesota Vikings (-3.5) (Thursday 11/24)
Kirk Cousins in prime time is sketchier than deep frying a still-frozen turkey. On paper, the Vikings are the far superior team. But the reality is that as long as a game is going on at night, Cousins is risky to trust. Throw in Bill Belichick on the opposite sideline…and it’s a recipe for a disaster.
Mac Jones and the Patriots offense isn’t inspiring though. If they can establish the run with Rhamondre Stevenson, it’ll go a long way in opening up Jakobi Meyers over the top for their young QB. Not a lot else to be excited about with this New England offense however.
Gimme the Pats on the road, Kirk’s going to implode.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3.5) at Cleveland Browns
Tampa's slowly turning it on at the right time, squeaking out their last two wins. The Browns are trending in the exact opposite direction after their statement stomping of Cincinnati two weeks ago.
Bad weather in Cleveland favors Nick Chubb and the Browns, who were absolutely bottled up on the ground by Buffalo. Jacoby Brissett isn't winning games, but he's not costing the team any more in them. A Tampa defense that's missing a few key pieces should present an opportunity both can take advantage.
Can Mike Evans and Chris Godwin take advantage of a banged up secondary and shine? Given the pressure Cleveland's front seven can create, the Bucs will need to employ some quick hitters to buy Tom Terrific some extra time in the pocket. Given how they've executed offensively thus far, I don't see them getting it done.
I'll take the Browns to cover at home at a minimum in this one.
Cincinnati Bengals (- 1/2) at Tennessee Titans
It’s seeming like Joe Mixon will not play in this game, opening the door for Samaje Perine to have an encore performance to his three score day a week ago. Joe Burrow will be happy to see Ja’Marr Chase back. He makes Cincinnati’s offense significantly more dynamic and will be huge assignment all day for a shaky Titans secondary.
Derrick Henry will have to do his part on the ground to control the clock and put up points for Tennessee. If he’s able to be productive, it’ll make for an easier day for Ryan Tannehill. The QB is coming off a productive day through the air last week, one that had him finding rookie Treylon Burks early and often. They’re very dangerous when he’s playing anywhere above game manager level.
I like the Titans to keep this close. Mike Vrabel gets the boys up for games like this, especially at home and coming off a mini bye from a Thursday night game.
Houston Texans at Miami Dolphins (-13.5)
Davis Mills has been benched, so Brandon Allen will be under center for Houston. While not exciting, he at least has flashed competence in his career in situations like this. Not a good fantasy matchup for many of the Texans’ skill players regardless of who was under center.
Smash spot for Jeff Wilson here, expect 140+ and multiple scores against this atrocious run defense. Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle should have a few big plays, but I don’t expect them to be needed much this week versus such an inferior opponent.
Actually predicting a Skylar Thompson appearance due to Tua getting benched up late in the fourth. Dolphins by murder.
Chicago Bears at New York Jets (-5.5)
Mike White season is upon us. Zach Wilson was shown the bench after his failure to take accountability for his shitty play a week ago. He comes off as a pampered, entitled douchebag…and it seems some in the New York organization agree.
This iffy Chicago defense should present the Jets’ talented play makers with some opportunities to shine if White can get them the ball. Will this be Elijah Moore’s breakout game? I think James Robinson will out carry Michael Carter too, while finding pay dirt.
How close to 100% will Justin Fields be? He has a separated shoulder that he said has been giving him some pain. This ferocious Jets defense isn’t a fun assignment ahead with an injury like that. Bench Darnell Mooney ASAP, dudes already lost in the sauce.
Bears have been fun, but the Jets are going to control the trenches on both sides of the ball and ride out a victory.
Atlanta Falcons at Washington Commanders (-4.5)
Fun matchup at FedEx field between the Falcons and Commanders. Atlanta’s surprisingly battling for the top spot in the NFC South and really can’t afford to drop this game.
They didn’t move the ball that well last week against a much more exploitable Bears D, which leads me to think Washington’s front seven is going to give them some fits. Kyle Pitts is now out too, which takes away a huge (under utilized) piece of their offense. I don’t see them having a ton of consistent success outside of a big play or two.
Taylor Heinicke’s rallied this Commanders team to five wins in their last six games. He should be able to feed Terry McLaurin and Curtis Samuel regularly while Antonio Gibson and Brian Robinson pace things on the ground.
No need to overthink this one, DC should win by double digits.
Denver Broncos (-2.5) at Carolina Panthers
Terrible game. Sam Darnold starting over Baker is the big story for this game. He probably won’t do worse, but can’t imagine he’ll do miles better. For as bad as Denvers been, their defense has balled out. The Panthers weren’t going to do well on offense regardless of who got the nod.
Russell Wilson’s still terrible, Nathaniel Hackett still can’t, Melvin Gordon got cut, Jerry Jeudy likely to be out again. Don’t want to or feel the need to give the Broncos more shine then that!
Late Panthers upset, their defense should also bother Dangeruss in this low scoring and uneventful game. Hit that gross under.
Baltimore Ravens (-4.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars
Ravens going to Duval for a date with the Jags. There have been a number of starters miss practice this week, including Lamar, so health provide some storylines to track. Regardless, their offense can’t be stuck in neutral like it was for majority of last week.
While not substantially more imposing, I would trust Trevor Lawrence more than Baker to pull away from Baltimore if the trend continues. Christian Kirk, Zay Jones and Evan Engram have all shown chemistry with their QB of late, and Travis Etienne’s been awesome since the James Robinson trade. It’ll be a long day for the Ravens if he gets going.
Tougher game than it looks on paper. Ravens win, Jags cover at home. Like the under too.
Los Angeles Chargers (-4.5) at Arizona Cardinals
Word on the street is Kyler will be back at QB for Arizona. Not 1000% sure they’re better for it, but they should* be. James Conner should have a little bit of room to run against a bad LA run defense, which’ll alleviate some pressure on their short quarterback. Deandre Hopkins will feast as well.
Justin Herbert looked so much better with Keenan Allen back in the mix. Imagine if Mike Williams hadn’t gone out again so quickly. Their offense should have success running and passing the ball against a Cardinals D that’ll be down some starters.
I’ll take the over and Chargers to win. They’ve got just a little bit more to fight for right now.
Las Vegas Raiders at Seattle Seahawks (-4.5)
Josh McDaniels bought himself another week with a gritty win over shitty Denver. Geno and the Seahawks will be a trickier task. Fresh off a bye and in the home of the 12th man, this Seattle team has to be motivated by San Fran recently leap frogging them for tops in the NFC West. DK and Lockett should have a ton of success against this bad secondary if their offensive line can keep Smith upright. Kenneth Walker should rumble in the run game too.
Tariq Woolen will have a huge task against Davante Adams. He’ll get beaten a few times surely, but it’ll be a great “iron sharpens iron” type matchup for the rookie. Josh Jacobs should be alright, but I expect this underrated Seattle defense to have success against the perennially overrated Derek Carr.
Pete Carroll and the Seahawks! Get it done at home.
Los Angeles Rams at Kansas City Chiefs (-14.5)
Bryce Perkins game. No Cooper Kupp. No hope for the Los Angeles Rams.
Absolutely no reason Kansas City doesn’t win this game by 24+. Sorry if you were looking for more on this one.
New Orleans Saints at San Francisco 49ers (-10.5)
49ers looked incredible in Mexico City as they dismantled the Cardinals. No reason this game shouldn’t look very similar.
Andy Dalton was very good last week against the Rams with a ton of pressure on his starting spot. Chris Olave was awesome again and Alvin Kamara was efficient in the process. The 9ers have a much stronger defense however and a lot more to play for. They’ll be able to get after the immobile quarterback all day.
Jimmy G won’t throw four touchdowns again, but no reason he can’t lead San Fran to a big offensive day. Elijah Mitchell and McCaffery will likely split carries again, with Deebo helping absorb some work underneath. Can George Kittle parlay another strong outing after his two touchdown night Monday?
49ers roll here, really long day for Andy Dalton.
Green Bay Packers at Philadelphia Eagles (-7.5)
Both of these teams have looked pretty uninspiring of late. Difference between them is the whole year’s felt this way for Green Bay.
Philly got stomped by Washington in their most recent prime time game two weeks ago, but shot themselves in the foot multiple times along the way. The Packers defense hasn’t really brought an equivalent tenacity all year and will likely struggle against Jalen Hurts and his dynamic crew. Devonta Smith and AJ Brown should give him bountiful windows to throw.
Aaron Rodgers looks and feels dejected overall in this present offense. If they can establish Aaron Jones in the run game, then it’s possible they keep this one close. If not, then Philly should steam roll them.
The Eagles fully get back on track here, officially ending the Packers playoff aspirations.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Indianapolis Colts (-2.5) (Monday 11/28)
A dud of a game Monday night, with Matt Ryan squaring off against the rookie Kenny Pickett.
Each offense features some solid pass catchers and stud running backs, but have really been limited by their size quarterback and offensive line play. Fortunately for the Steelers’ long term forecast, they’re much younger than Indy, but neither teams in a spot instilling of confidence for their fans.
I actually like Pittsburgh getting it done in this Prime Time affair. TJ Watt should bother the immobile Matt Ryan, and Najee Harris should continue his stronger play of late. Under looks fair as well.
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@Choppinglines
*This is not gambling advice, just our opinions. Consider at your own risk
*I own no rights to any images found in this blog
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