Nine weeks down: two coaches fired, one undefeated team remaining, one tie. Some teams like the Seahawks, Falcons and Jets have exceeded yearly expectations already, while others, such as the Packers, Rams and Cardinals, have massively fallen short of theirs. What a roller coaster it's been, and outside of some recent gambling failures, we've loved every second of it.
We're officially into the second half of the season and don't see any exit for this coaster in sight. Buckle up folks, it's going to be a wild few weeks here. Onto week 10 we go:
Atlanta Falcons (-3.5) at Carolina Panthers (Thursday 11/10)
This game was surprisingly a ton of fun two weeks ago...priming us for a big let down this go round. Throw in the fact that this is a Thursday night game and there's even less reason for entertainment optimism.
Despite having one less interception than completion last Sunday, PJ Walker will be back under center for the Panthers. Atlanta's defense is less formidable then Cincy's, but don't set expectations too high for him here. DJ Moore should be able to bounce back some from a poor showing against this weak secondary and D'Onta Foreman will be busy on the ground.
The Falcons' trio of Cordarelle Patterson, Tyler Allgeier and Caleb Huntley will be busy as well trying to churn out rushing yards and control the clock. Patterson was predictably the top dog in the backfield a week ago, but Allgeier and Huntley got their touches. If they're able to move the ball in the ground game, it'll minimize the pressure on Marcus Mariota and should enable him to make a few plays to Kyle Pitts and/or Drake London to keep the defense honest.
This could unfold into a weird one like the first meeting between these two squads, but I think it'll be a bit more tame this go round. Expect a lot of carries from both offenses and at least one head scratching INT. Falcons get it done here, not so sure on the over/under situation just yet.
Seattle Seahawks vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5) (In Munich)
Look Hans, no Ma! In the Brady household anyway.
The Seahawks and Buccaneers will be travelling to Germany for the first ever NFL game on German soil. Unfortunately for our lederhosen-laden friends, they'll have to witness the train wreck that is the Tampa Bay.
The Bucs will try to carry over any momentum they gained from the win they squeaked out last Sunday over the Rams. It was as uninspiring a victory as a team could muster, but it kept their season very alive in the pitiful NFC South. Will their offense be able to have success against a young, underrated Seattle defensive unit? And will their own defense be able to shut down dangerous wideouts DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett?
Despite having to fly almost half way around the world, I'll take the Seahawks to continue their winning ways in Munich. At some point, the public as a whole will begin to buy into this team being as legit as they are. Until then, ride these dogs as they continue their push to the postseason.
Minnesota Vikings at Buffalo Bills (-5.5)
The 7-1 Vikings travel to Orchard Park for a marquee one o'clock matchup with the 6-2 Buffalo Bills. Cue the fireworks now.
The biggest storyline in this game will be the health of QB Josh Allen. He suffered a UCL injury at some point versus the Jets which'll undoubtedly have some impact on his performance. Given the pass-happy nature of their offense, I expect some tough adjustments in the short term. Will they lean more on Devin Singletary and James Cook? Will it even work if they do?
Minnesota has a single victory by more then one score, but they've also only lost once. This team knows how to keep themselves in games and how to win them when push comes to shove, which is a tell-tale sign of a good team. Kirk Cousins is as unflashy as they come, but he's been steady this year. Having a monster receiver like Justin Jefferson makes life easier with that. Dalvin Cook has been healthy, explosive and involved as well. And the defense is rounding into form.
Given the uncertainty around Josh Allen, I have to lean toward the Vikings here; they just seem a little more complete and ready to handle adversity. Should be a tight game, so peep the under too.
Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears (-3.5)
An NFC North scrap between two teams that have looked a little sharper the last few weeks then early in the year.
Detroit's key to victory lies in establishing the run against this susceptible front seven. Jamaal Williams has been a nice piece for them, but you have to think D'Andre Swift being able to handle a full workload would go a long way for their success. Dan Campbell's been really easing him back into the lineup as he recovers from shoulder and ankle injuries; at some point you have to wonder if he's in the dog house?
The Bears' path to winning is also paved in the running game. David Montgomery has been alright this year, often overshadowed his explosive backup Khalil Herbert. However, dual-threat Justin Fields has been the real X-factor in their running game of late, averaging 102 yards per game over their last four. It's been no surprise that their offense has also flourished over these four games, raising their points per game from 17.2 to 25.3 over that span.
Hammer the over in this game with both defenses being pretty subpar. I'll also take Chicago to get it done as Justin Fields continues to shine by air and ground.
Denver Broncos at Tennessee Titans (-3.5)
There's almost no fathomable way that I can foresee this game being an entertaining one. The Broncos will be rested coming off a bye as they trek to Nashville. The Denver faithful hope the time away will help the offense to click more consistently on the field, and a date against a defense that just allowed 500 yards on Sunday night is a good place to start.
Can they get a consistent running game going? They've failed to do so all year, even when Javonte Williams was available. Tennessee also boasts the second best run D in the league, which doesn't bode well for that effort. They may end up relying on their $245 million dollar quarterback to win them their game; a recipe that hasn't bore fruit thus far. What an albatross that contract will be before long.
Will we see Ryan Tannehill back healthy for the Titans? I truly wasn't sure it mattered, but Malik Willis has looked so incapable as a thrower in his two starts that any viable threat of a down field passer would be welcome. Derrick Henry is hitting his stride and would only stand to gain from less stacked boxes.
As long as Tannehill is out, I like the Broncos to at least cover here, and my gut tells me they win outright. I can't put less eggs in Russell Wilson's basket...but I think they'll be able to do enough on offense to complement a stout defense that'll limit the Titans' attack all day. Gross game though, disgusting.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Kansas City Chiefs (-10.5)
Intriguing matchup going down in Arrowhead between the Jaguars and Chiefs. Kansas City for all intents and purposes should dominate this game, but there are some variables that'll effect that. Will we get the Jags offense that can control the ground game with Travis Etienne while hitting a big play or two to Christian Kirk? Or will it be the turnover heavy, lethargic version that the NFL tends to ship off to London?
Regardless of how their offense performs, their defense will have their hands full with Patrick Mahomes. Jacksonville does boast a top ten defense against tight ends, which does provide some optimism going up against the best in the league. Will Juju and Mecole Hardman be as effective to help take some coverage away from #87? Anticipate the 7th ranked run defense keeping Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Isiah Pacheco under wraps, nothing new there.
No reason the Chiefs should lose this game, but they haven't looked super inspiring the last month (outside of smashing San Francisco). If Jacksonville can establish themselves in the run game, I think they'll cover in a losing effort that cashes the under.
Cleveland Browns at Miami Dolphins (-4.5)
Few offenses in the whole league are clicking right now like the Miami Dolphins. Tua's gotten a lot of the credit nationally for this success, but the two main driving factors actually seem to be Mike McDaniel and receiver Tyreek Hill. Their rookie head coach has schemed up some incredible play calls to maximize the speed of Hill and his running mate Jaylen Waddle, leaving it up to Tagovailoa to hit the passes. He's been able to do this so far, but many have been pretty drastically underthrown. Realistically, he's cost Hill from a couple hundred more yards.
But the big plays are happening, and relatively often, so we can't throw too much shade on their QB. Jeff Wilson seems like a nice fit in the offense too to help kickstart an underachieving run game. If Miami can get some balance going with the ball, they're only going to become more dangerous.
Cleveland is a middle of the pack team in every facet of the game. They've looked excellent at times and completely incompetent at others. Nick Chubb is the engine currently driving them with Deshaun Watson suspended, and he should have some room to work against this Dolphins' front seven. Controlling time of possession will be essential to them having any shot at stealing an upset win.
Don't anticipate the Browns being able to do this. Miami's offense is a juggernaut that might only be at the tip of their iceberg as far as potential goes. They should be able to exploit the injured Cleveland secondary as Hill's hot start continues. Dolphins win and cover.
Houston Texans at New York Giants (-7.5)
This is a huge game for the New York Giants. They dropped a tough one in Seattle two weeks ago, with Richie James making two crucial mistakes the team couldn't overcome. They're coming off of their bye to host the Texans in the ultimate get right game.
Saquon Barkley and this Giants offense are tailor made for this matchup against a Houston defense that's allowing a league worst 180 yards per game. For perspective, the second worst run D is only allowing 148 YPG. Yikes. Barkley is an absolute fantasy and DFS monster this Sunday and could probably win this game on his own. Daniel Jones' legs will be useful as well, but it's going to be the Saquon show in the Meadowlands.
Houston is coming off of a mini bye of their own after hanging with Philadelphia last Thursday. It was their best game of the season on both sides of the ball against a formidable opponent. They're primed for a let down here against a defense that's going to make them work. Even with Xavier McKinney set to miss a few weeks (after an ATV injury in Cabo...), the Giants' will be able to limit what Davis Mills and the Texans do with the ball. 2+ turnovers should be in play too.
Giants in a bounce back game by slaughter, don't overthink this one.
New Orleans Saints (-2.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers
Gross game here between the underachieving Saints and the uninspiring Steelers. Andy Dalton had my vote of confidence just a few weeks ago, but that's quickly fleeting after some recent unproductive showings. Jameis will undoubtedly make some questionable decisions that hurt the team, but his upside may be worth a shot at this point.
Regardless of who starts (or finishes) this game at QB, they need to get Alvin Kamara more involved then he was Monday night. The star back only managed twelve touches in their loss to Baltimore, which was very much reflected in the ass kicking the Ravens put on them. It's not a secret that they're a better team when he has the ball. Chris Olave will look to continue a strong start to his career, presumably matching up with Minkah Fitzpatrick for much of this one.
Kenny Pickett has been fun and flashed potential, but he currently is making a ton of mistakes that have held the Steelers back. He is a rookie in what'll likely amount to a lost season, so he's got a long leash, but that doesn't necessarily help with the week to week. It'll be worth following how he comes out of the bye, especially with his WR2 Chase Claypool now in Chicago. George Pickens szn on deck here for the second half of the season. Maybe they'll be able to give Najee some space to run eventually.
I actually think Dalton will get benched at some point in this game, whether it be temporary or not. That to me spells a bunch of mistakes, which I'm not necessarily confident Pittsburgh's offense will cash in on. Take the under and the Saints to squeak out an ugly win, somehow keeping their season alive in the anemic NFC South.
Indianapolis Colts at Las Vegas Raiders (-6.5)
Speaking of underachieving... These two teams were projected to combine for 18-20 wins. They'll be lucky if they combine for double digits at this rate. There've already been some people fired and benched in these organizations, and it feels like we're just at the top of an ugly downhill slope.
To address the game itself...Sam Ehlinger will look to get back on track after an abysmal showing in Foxborough. The Colts failed to convert a first down on fourteen chances in what was the worst offensive showing in the league so far this season. Getting Jonathan Taylor back would probably help a little, but with packed boxes and a subpar offensive line, it may be worth keeping him on ice until he's 100%.
Indy's defense has been pretty good despite the massive ineptitude displayed by the offense. Derek Carr will present them with some opportunities to force turnovers that they'll need to capitalize on if they want to inspire a road upset. Davante Adams is going to get his, but if they can limit the Raiders' other pass catchers and Josh Jacobs in the run game, then it's very possible the D gives Ehlinger a chance to win it late.
The Raiders really should roll in this game, but something in my stomach tells me they won't. Tired of being burned by this shitty team. We'll ride one more time though, Vegas gets the home win in a close one.
Dallas Cowboys (-5.5) at Green Bay Packers
Watching the Packers this year has been a pretty depressing experience for many NFL fans. A $50 million dollar quarterback who'd delivered so many exciting moments over recent years essentially imploding game by game for national audiences to witness. It'll be Dallas taking him to the wood shed this weekend.
The Cowboys' running game has been revitalized these last few games with Tony Pollard getting the bulk of the carries. Zeke deserves a role on this team, but it's clear the Pollard is the more explosive guy at this point. Dak is rounding into form as well, keeping Ceedee Lamb rolling and getting Dalton Schultz involved with regularity.
Their defense should also feast against Rodgers and this bad offense. Micah Parsons has been an absolute game wrecker and should be making the Packers' QB uncomfortable all afternoon. Green Bay lost receiver Romeo Doubs last week, and now Aaron Jones is dealing with an ankle injury, depleting an already toothless attack. It's safe to wonder when Jordan Love will begin getting playing time. They have to find out what they have in their former first round pick, why not in a year they're clearly going nowhere.
Dallas rolls in this one, under looks good too.
Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams (-3.5)
We'll title this one the "Who Wants to be Here Less?" Bowl." Both of these teams had Super Bowl aspirations entering the season. Fast forward to now and it's safe to wonder whether these team's will even have the same head coaches come training camp next year.
The Cardinals have no consistency on offense, even with Deandre Hopkins back from suspension. I'm far from a Kyler believer, so I'm not throwing him a life line here, but Kliff Kingsbury has to be very at fault in this situation. He's never really accomplished much as a head coach on any level, so this abject failure shouldn't truly be a surprise, but it feels like he's been completely devoid of accountability. The axe has to be dropping soon.
Sean McVay certainly won't meet the same fate, but it's safe to question his level of commitment after his comments last week about riding into the sunset when his core guys call it quits. Any second tier player on the team would be right to have some reservations toward their coach after such remarks. On top of that drama, quarterback Matthew Stafford has now entered concussion protocol and is truly questionable. If he doesn't play, the Rams might get shut out.
This game could and should be fun. It won't be though, much closer to the opposite. It'll probably give us a wonky highlight or two, but nothing close to quality football. I liked the Rams when we were recording the podcast, but starting to shy toward Arizona at this point.
Los Angeles Chargers at San Francisco 49ers (-7.5)
Big game ahead for both of these teams on Sunday Night Football. The depleted Chargers were fortunate to escape Atlanta with a win last week and now run into a much more challenging foe on primetime TV.
It seems unlikely that Keenan Allen will be cleared for this one, meaning LA will be down their top two receivers again. Look for Josh Palmer and Gerald Everett to be busy through the air, as well as running back Austin Ekeler. They'll need to be sharp against a stout defense, maximizing the limited opportunities they'll get.
The run heavy approach that San Fran will employ is what's going to give them so few offensive opportunities. It's the bread and butter of this team, and who better to display it for then the 4th worst run D in the league? Christian McCaffery won't go for the touchdown cycle again, but finding the end zone multiple times is in play. He'll rack up 20-25 touches, especially if Deebo is out again.
49ers should win at home but this feels like a game the Chargers keep it close. Will it be competitive or a back door cover? Tune in Sunday night and find out.
Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles (-11.5)
NFC Beast showdown to wrap up week ten and it's going down at Lincoln Financial Field. The Commanders have played more entertaining football since Taylor Heinicke was inserted as the starter, but I'm not sure it'll make this game more competitive then their week three tussle. As fun as he can be, he has a penchant for making crucial errors. Not the defense to do that against here.
The Commanders defense has been stout in their own right these last couple of games after an awful beginning to the year. They'll need to be again on Monday against MVP candidate Jalen Hurts and company. Shutting down AJ Brown will be their first matter of business, with the Eagles receiver totaling 15 catches for 282 yards and five scores the last three weeks. It's a tall order for any secondary. Their best route to this would be by making the pocket uncomfortable for Hurts with their talented defensive front. Failure to do so could result in another long game.
Eagles get it done here and I'll even venture to say they cover. Heinicke's a spunky dude under center, but this defense is going to be too much for him.
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@Choppinglines
*This is not gambling advice, just our opinions. Consider at your own risk
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