Apologies to my few loyal readers for not having this out on Thursday's like usual. As you'll see by my prediction for the game that I didn't make any alterations post-facto. But we're here Friday morning with ya and we're ready to dive into the ninth week of the NFL season. Let's time travel back to a bad take and then get on to Sunday:
Philadelphia Eagles (-14.5) at Houston Texans (Thursday 11/3)
Another Thursday, another stinker of a game. The only cool thing about this game is that these cities' baseball teams are currently also squaring up in the World Series. That's it.
Philadelphia is on fire right now while Houston has more or less solidified themselves as the worst team in the league. The Eagles are going to be able to run all over them while taking a few calculated deep shots with their talented receivers, blowing this one open early. Their ferocious defense will take over from there, causing all kinds of headaches for Davis Mills.
This game's the opposite of must watch TV. Philadelphia wins, covers and maybe gets Mills benched in the process. Shut out?
Los Angeles Chargers (-3.5) at Atlanta Falcons
On paper, this game shouldn't be remotely close, so good thing the game's played on the field. The Chargers are coming off a bye but are banged up at essentially every position. Their four wins have been over opponents with a combined record of 9-20-1, none of which coming in convincing fashion. Is this a get right game or simply a longer look in the mirror?
Atlanta is coming off of a tough overtime victory against Carolina that may go down as one of the more entertaining games of the season. They certainly had no business holding on with how that fourth quarter/OT unfolded, but you never apologize for a win in the NFL.
The Falcons boast a steady rushing attack that should be able to exploit the sixth worst run defense in the league. Drake London should also have some opportunities against a secondary that just lost top corner JC Jackson to a ruptured patellar tendon. Their biggest question will come from their own rag tag bunch of cornerbacks, missing starters AJ Terrell and Casey Hayward.
If Keenan Allen is healthy and unrestricted, I think he and Herbert should be able to pace the passing game and allow room to work underneath for Austin Ekeler-- resulting in a Chargers victory. Given the Falcons ability and desire to run the ball though, I'll take them to cover.
Miami Dolphins (-5.5) at Chicago Bears
I want to give some shine to Justin Fields and the Bears' play calling over his last two games; this team's looked as fun and competent as they have in a while. Who'd have thought that scheming up some designed runs for your dual threat quarterback would help move the ball on offense?
They're returning home off of a beatdown in Dallas-- a rare loss that falls squarely on the defense, not an offense that put up 29 points. While they parted ways with leading tackler Roquan Smith in a deal to Baltimore, they did acquire Chase Claypool to give Fields another weapon and help keep this offense humming. I don't expect him to get a ton of reps Sunday but he'll definitely be out there.
It'll be the second time this year he'll see the Dolphins, who beat his former team Pittsburgh in week seven. Miami also made a splash at the trade deadline, acquiring edge rusher Bradley Chubb and running back Jeff Wilson to bolster both sides of the ball. Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle are going to give the Bears secondary headaches all afternoon.
This feels similar to the Bears/Cowboys game, two teams putting up points but Chicago just not being equipped to keep up. Give me the Fins here, covering ever so slightly.
Carolina Panthers at Cincinnati Bengals (-7.5)
Interesting game here in Cincinnati. The Bengals looked supremely flat last week minus their top wideout against a Browns team with a ferocious defensive line. The Panthers boast a pretty formidable front seven of their own that could easily make Joe Burrow uncomfortable in the pocket.
The only starting quarterback Cincy has beaten this year is Marcus Mariota, a fact that isn't super endorsing. They'll be up against another back up in PJ Walker, who's been a rallying point for Carolina. The Bengals can't run the ball, which probably won't change Sunday, so it'll fall on Joe Burrow's capable shoulders to get it done. Can he sans Chase?
If Cincinnati is able to contain DJ Moore, it should be an easy win for them. But they failed to do this against a lesser receiver in Amari Cooper last week. Nick Chubb also gashed them, lending some optimism to D'Onta Foreman. Obviously substantially different talents, but Foreman runs hard and can make teams pay when he gets a full head of steam.
This game should be closer then the line suggests. I think Carolina will cover late but the Bengals won't lose this one at home.
Green Bay Packers (-3.5) at Detroit Lions
NFC North showdown between the reeling Packers and the reeling-er Lions. The movable object vs. the stoppable force, what side's not going to give?
Aaron Rodgers has looked all out of sorts this season, failing to eclipse 255 passing yards all year and wearing his frustrations openly on the gridiron. He has a prime opportunity for a breakout performance in Detroit against a secondary that's allowed the sixth most passing yards in the league. Getting Allen Lazard back would help a ton with that. Aaron Jones should be poised for another big day also.
How frustrating must it be to be a Lions fan? I mean that in general, but particularly this season. They've looked so incredible at times and so lifeless at others, which to me suggests some coaching deficiencies rather then talent lulls. Time will tell there, but this team has the pieces to hang with most. And the Packers are not playing well.
I think they'll be able to move the ball well on the ground and by air in the dome Sunday. They'll need to because Green Bay will keep up. I'm leaning toward the over in this game, which would only be the third Packers' over on the season. I also like the Lions covering, and my gut tells me they win outright. We'll see how that ages.
Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots (-6.5)
Fifteen years ago this would be the primetime matchup: Tom Brady vs. Peyton Manning, two great teams squaring off for AFC control. Fast forward to the Sam Ehlinger and Mac Jones show...how unspectacular.
Similar to Detroit, the Patriots have been a weird team to follow. Some games it looks like they can run all over any opponent and play lockdown defense on all levels. Other games they let teams seize control of the game flow and cannot get it back-- generally against teams with mobile quarterbacks.
Ehlinger doesn't quite fall into that mobile category, at least not to the extent of Lamar Jackson and Justin Fields, who each had big games in New England. Matthew Judon should be able to feast on the inexperienced signal caller for 2+ sacks. The secondary should limit Michael Pittman Jr. and Alec Pierce deep as well.
Indy has been decent at stopping the run, and should continue to improve in that area now that Shaquille Leonard is back. If Rhamondre Stevenson can't get rumbling, that'd put the ball in Mac's hands to get it done for the Patriots. I'm not fully confident he can do this, but I'm also not fully convinced their running game will be shut down.
Give me the under in this one all day and the Patriots money line. Belichick generally crushes quarterbacks like Sam Ehlinger too, so I don't think 5.5 is too tall of a task to cover either.
Buffalo Bills (-13.5) at New York Jets
The Jets came back to Earth last week, losing to big brother New England at home in ugly fashion. It gets worse this week, with Buffalo, the new boss on the block, coming to town.
As iffy as this Jets offense looked without Breece Hall in the backfield, the defense didn't skip a beat. They're still an uber-talented unit that's going to keep New York in majority of games. This is their toughest challenge of the year though; a true litmus test of their quality. Will they be able to rise to the challenge?
My answer to that question is...at first. I think the Bills will uncharacteristically struggle to move the ball early in this one, but will find ways to get it done as the Jets D fatigues from so much time on the field. Zach Wilson will have at least three turnovers as the chatter about his competence (or lack there of) gets a little louder.
Buffalo ultimately wins this one by 17+
Minnesota Vikings (-4.5) at Washington Commanders
Mama, Kirk Cousins is coming home. To Landover we go for a battle between the former Redskins* quarterback and the Commanders.
I think Washington will be riding high given the recent news that owner Daniel Snyder is exploring a sale of the team. His creepy, short, power-mongering shadow been cast over this once proud franchise for far too long. Time to audition for a new owner (Jeff Bezos anyone?!)
The Vikings are 6-1, so can't knock them for winning, but they seem to just be squeaking by more often then not. Is it a sign of a good team refusing to lose, or an okay team continuing to just hold on? Time will tell. Kirk loves playing at one o'clock though and his star receivers should have some exploitable matchups in the Washington secondary. It'll be up to their offensive line to hold off a ferocious front seven and give him enough time to throw.
Taylor Heinicke will continue trying to affirm his worth as a starter in this league. He's 2-0 so far this year, and while he's had some really rough patches, he's also righted the ship and gotten the Commanders where they need to be. Sunday is a big one for the team as they continue their unlikely turnaround and try to steal one from a tough conference opponent.
Washington will fall just short of winning in this one, but I'll take them covering as hungry, home dogs. Woof.
Las Vegas Raiders (-1.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars
Shit bowl of the week here. Both of these teams looked so bad last week, combining for seventeen points and three turnovers in respective losses. It's more likely then not that one of them will win Sunday.
The best part of this game might be that it's buried on the one o'clock slate. I'm excited to see if Travis Etienne can follow up on his really strong performance against Denver versus a much weaker opponent. He's currently looking like the superior first round pick from the 2020 draft. Can their other first rounder Trevor Lawrence bounce back against this weak Las Vegas secondary?
It's worth wondering if Derek Carr can bounce back under center too. He was absolutely abysmal against a New Orleans D that'd been surrendering yards and points like it was their job. Davante Adams won't go for three yards on one catch again, but he's been showing some lingering side effects from his recent illness. Will he be able to pop against Jacksonville like he should?
I think so. Josh McDaniels may be fired if they lay another egg like they did in the City of Easy Living, so he'll need to pull out every stop to ensure that doesn't happen. Nice weather in Florida too for this afternoon affair. Give me the Raiders winning and the over in a game with some potential to be fun. Or really, really unwatchable.
Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals (-2.5)
First place Seattle goes down to Arizona for their second meeting of the season. The Seahawks won the first matchup four weeks ago at home by a score of 19-9. Their defense dominated the Cardinals, who were still without suspended wideout Deandre Hopkins.
It'll be a little trickier this go round with Nuk back in the mix, providing a firm test for rookie corner Tariq Woolen who'll likely see a lot of Hopkins. If the front seven can pressure Kyler as ferociously as they did in Seattle, it might not matter. They made his life hell in the Pacific northwest, sacking the QB six times and forcing two turnovers.
Geno Smith will look to continue his MVP-worthy campaign down in the desert. Arizona challenged him in their first game and we don't expect anything to change this go round. Kenneth Walker is going to get a healthy dose of carries to pace the way, hopefully condensing the defense to open up some opportunities over the top.
The Seahawks are simply the better team, making them really tasty dogs here. Give me Seattle outright and hammer the under in a game that should be tight.
Los Angeles Rams at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5)
A few months ago, it felt like this game was going to bring us fireworks. Might be preparing for a late afternoon nap for it now instead. What a fall from grace each of these franchises are experiencing.
Sean McVay came out this week saying he would probably retire from coaching when his core of Stafford/Kupp/Donald called it quits. It's a weird comment to make in the middle of a disappointing season and can't instill a ton of belief in their younger, less prominent names. When you take into account how they've gutted years of future picks, it seems like a selfish way to abandon an organization that helped ones legacy get shaped.
We'll see how those comments impact their already subpar performance on the field. Even without Shaq Barrett, this Bucs front seven should be able to give Stafford a lot of trouble in the pocket. Cooper Kupp being less then 100% won't help either, nor will the nonexistent running game. Not a ton to be excited for on the offensive side of the ball for LA.
Fortunately for them, Tampa is in a similar boat of sadness. Tom looks older each game, Leonard Fournette has about five good carries a game and honestly, the defense has underperformed. Can point your finger at a plethora of problems here.
Loser leaves town with this game, with Todd Bowles being potentially fire-able if it's Tampa. Maybe a little hyperbole, but this team's fallen apart under him. Personally, I think LA gets it done. Take the under, take the Rams and take that refreshing nap after the one o'clock games instead of watching this one. All hype and no bite.
Tennessee Titans at Kansas City Chiefs (-12.5)
If Malik Willis starts for Tennessee, which is seeming more likely with each passing day, then they may lose by 40. Derrick Henry is a problem who's gaining steam, but that won't mean anything if KC can stack 10 in the box every play.
Kansas City's defense is playing a little better over the last few games while Patrick Mahomes continues to get comfortable with his new receiving core. The Titans have also been hurt by tight ends this year, setting up stalwart Travis Kelce for a big day. The Chiefs won't have any room to run, but that won't be a problem (or anything new) because the air ways will be clear for take off.
X-Factor in this game is the weather. Calling for a chilly, rainy night at Arrowhead, which very much favors Tennessee. Regardless, KC should be able to limit the Titans' offense enough to get the win and cover against a scrappy AFC rival.
Baltimore Ravens (-3.5) at New Orleans Saints
Monday night matchup with no work the next day due to elections. It's like the NFL wrote this up for me as a teacher/Ravens fan.
Andy Dalton will be riding high into this matchup against a former, long time rival in Baltimore. Despite his good performances of late, this defense will give him trouble. Marlon Humphrey should be able to minimize the impact Chris Olave makes and new addition Roquan Smith will attempt to help neutralize Alvin Kamara. If they slow him down, it's a wrap.
New Orleans' defense will also have a chance to back up a strong performance after shutting out the Raiders a week ago. They'd been playing very poorly before shutting down Las Vegas, surrendering 33 PPG in the four weeks prior. Lamar Jackson will be without #1 wideout Rashod Bateman, but he should be able to do plenty with his legs, Mark Andrews and Devin Duvernay. It won't always be pretty, but it'll be special when it is.
I'll take the Ravens money line here as a lock, though the Saints plus the points has some intrigue.
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@Choppinglines
*This is not gambling advice, just our opinions. Consider at your own risk
*I own no rights to any images found in this blog
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