Week eleven has some big shoes to fill after what we saw from week ten. A few games on the docket look really rough, but there should be some fun storylines to follow. As we really get into the second half of the season, the true contenders are going to start standing out from the pretenders. Just who those will be...we shall see. Week eleven:
Tennessee Titans at Green Bay Packers (-3.5) (Thursday 11/17)
If the previous ten Thursday Night games are any indicator, this game's going to be rough. Green Bay has allowed teams to have success running on them, which could be the difference if Derrick Henry starts rolling. They've done a much better job at limiting opponents through the air, but that's unlikely to be Tennessee's approach on this short week.
The Titans are pretty much the opposite on defense-- struggling mightily vs. the pass while shutting down opposing rushing attacks. In previous years, this would be a premium matchup for QB Aaron Rodgers, but he's had a lackluster year overall. He should have a few opportunities to connect deep with Christian Watson while having success in the intermediate game with Allen Lazard and Robert Tonyan. How much Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon will be able to contribute remains to be seen.
This feels like a game Tennessee wins under Mike Vrabel...but after their shocking comeback last week against Dallas, I'm thinking there has to be a fire lit under the Packers. Give me Green Bay to win an ugly game late with a Titans cover.
Titans cover cashed $
Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons (-3.5)
Huge game on deck for Justin Fields in Atlanta. The Falcons should have some success moving the ball against Chicago's bottom five rush D, which should create a good game script for the sophomore QB. Atlanta's secondary is banged up and they don't really rush the passer well, so Fields should have ample opportunity to pick the poison he's going to put Atlanta down with.
Not a whole lot of thoughts on this game. Mariota is getting closer and closer to the clipboard with each passing performance while Justin Fields is cementing his place as the long-term solution Chicago wished he would be. He may finish as the QB1 in fantasy for week eleven as he leads da Bears to a fairly easy road victory.
Cleveland Browns at Buffalo Bills (-8.5)
On Sunday...bounce back is spelled "B-I-L-L-S". After two brutal, consecutive losses, Buffalo finds themselves in third place of their division behind Miami and the Jets. It's as urgent a situation as they've found themselves in these last few years.
Luckily for them, they're hosting the free falling Browns. If you take away their Monday night thumping of Cincinnati, Cleveland is allowing a miserable 32.5 points their last four games. It's a prime spot for Josh Allen and the boys to get back on track.
Forecasts were projecting 4-6 feet of snow for the Buffalo area this weekend however. Nick Chubb needs to be licking his chops at the thought of 30+ carries he should receive with weather like that on the way. It's definitely a development that favored the Browns, even with Devin Singletary having a pretty respectable season.
Hammer the under in this blizzard. Bills would easily cover in good weather, but I'll take Cleveland being able to keep this close enough given all of the circumstances.
UPDATE: This game's been moved to Detroit due to weather. We love the over now, with the Bills also pulling away to cover (similar to how Miami beat Cleveland a week ago)
Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5) at Indianapolis Colts
The Eagles finally dropped from the ranks of the unbeatens last Monday against Washington. They should absolutely be amped up to get back on track on the road against a vulnerable Colts team.
Jeff Saturday kicked off his NFL coaching career with a bang by upsetting the terrible Raiders in Las Vegas. His second test will pose a much stiffer challenge. Putting Matt Ryan back in as the starter was a good step for the team overall. No shade at Sam Ehlinger, but it really felt like the Colts were shipping it in as long as he was under center. Ryan hasn't been pretty, but he's quite simply better. Tough matchup though against a tenacious D.
Don't expect Philadelphia to turn the ball over four times again at Lucas Oil Stadium. Sloppy play was the main reason for their recent defeat and will be a major emphasis of the week. Even with Dallas Goedert out and AJ Brown less then 100%, this offense has more then enough firepower to overcome a middle of the pack Indy defense.
Expect a big game from Jalen Hurts, willing the Eagles back on track. Give me the Eagles by ten and the under; a lot of ground action with these two teams.
New York Jets at New England Patriots (-3.5)
Pretty big AFC East implications surrounding this game. New England, who sits just half a game behind New York in the division, dominated the first matchup between these two teams just three weeks ago. There was a different aura around the Jets at that time though, with star rookie Breece Hall tearing his ACL the game before, forcing them to alter their identity on offense.
Gang Green's had an emotional, comeback victory over Buffalo and a bye since then, so they have to be feeling pretty good. James Robinson has fit in nicely with Michael Carter in the backfield and fellow rookie Garrett Wilson has been really shining. It might not be this year, but there's a lot to be excited about for the future of this team.
Bill Belichick looms however. He's completely owned Zach Wilson through their first three matchups, with the second year QB averaging 205 yards per game on 54% completion percentage and nearly quadruple the interceptions to touchdowns. Small sample size, sure...but bad samples.
New England's quarterback Mac Jones hasn't exactly been lighting things up either and will have his hands full against one of the best young defenses in the league. Their offense has been running through Rhamondre Stevenson the last month and a half with a ton of success, but it'll be tough sledding for him against Quinnen Williams and the tough Jets' front seven. Jakobi Meyers can find your fantasy bench, as he'll be getting extra sauce on this date.
I think I have to ride with Belichick at least once more over Wilson, but the Jets should cover. The under looks tasty too, even at a low 38.
Los Angeles Rams at New Orleans Saints (-4.5)
This will not be a good game. New Orleans has officially announced that Andy Dalton is remaining the starter, which unfortunately subjects us fans to another game without Jameis Winston. Matthew Stafford was cleared from concussion protocol, so he'll be back under center for LA. How he'll look with no Cooper Kupp remains to be seen.
Phew. Hit the under in this game that does feature two defenses that generally play pretty well. Take your risks with any skill players in fantasy, Alvin Kamara included. Tough matchup and Dalton isn't checking down to him as often lately, which is really tanking his value. I think New Orleans will squeak out a win as well, all but eliminating the Rams from playoff contention.
Detroit Lions at New York Giants (-3.5)
Against all the odds, a win here for Detroit would actually put them within ear shot of contending for a wild card berth. As a fan of that terrible franchise, how much more could you reasonably ask for?
In all seriousness, the Lions are coming off of two straight wins and have really only stunk for two quarters over the last month. Credit to Dan Campbell for getting things settled during their well-timed bye (after a 29-0 debacle in New England)
Amon-Ra St. Brown is back healthy and very involved. The young dude's electric with the ball in his hands. Jared Goff is avoiding big mistakes and Jamaal Williams is taking lead on the ground. Is D'Andre Swift in the dog house or an ace up Detroit's sleeve for a late season push? Time will tell there, but his usage recently has been curious at best.
New York just handled Houston in as Giants-like a victory as you could script. Detroit's offense will pose a more dynamic threat, but Saquon should still rumble against their defense. The level of success he can achieve will set the tone for how many points Danny Dimes and the boys are going to post.
And I think Barkley's pace will be a strong one. Loving the over in this game on a crisp autumn day in the Meadowlands. I like Detroit covering as well.
Carolina Panthers at Baltimore Ravens (-12.5)
John Harbaugh is 11-3 coming off the bye in his Baltimore head coaching tenure. He'll be leading his squad up against a Carolina team fresh off a Thursday night victory.
Due to a PJ Walker injury, the Panthers are starting Baker Mayfield at quarterback. Word on the street is there were some grumblings by teammates for Sam Darnold to get the nod instead of Mayfield, but such reality did not come to fruition. The former #1 pick is 3-5 against the Ravens all time, but has performed reasonably well.
That won't be the case this Sunday. Baltimore's defense is playing really well on all levels right now, and they're just beginning to gel as a unit. Carolina is going to really struggle to move the ball, especially if Lamar Jackson can get the offense rolling and make them one-dimensional through the air. Mark Andrews status is still up in the air, as is Gus Edwards-- both players who'd help the Ravens immensely. Keep an eye on them.
Regardless, the D should be enough for BMore here. Don't be shocked if Baker Mayfield finds himself on the bench by the end of this one.
Washington Commanders (-3.5) at Houston Texans
As bad as the Texans were last year, they at least were generally competitive and fun. It really hasn't been the case this year. Davis Mills has more or less regressed, the run defense is college level and even some discontent amongst team captains. Tough first year back in the league for Lovie.
Brian Robinson hasn't been super efficient in his shortened season, but he did tally his first career touchdown a week ago. This is a huge breakout opportunity for the talented rookie against a team allowing 181 yards per game to opposing teams. He'll pace the way along with Antonio Gibson, which should ultimately open some looks over the top for Terry Mac.
Houston sucks, Washington is playing as well as any team in the league right now. Commanders run away with the dub in H-Town.
Las Vegas Raiders at Denver Broncos (-2.5)
Just two months ago...this game looked like it'd be a lot of fun, maybe some AFC West implications on the line. And now, here we are.
For the long-term sake of each team, it'd be beneficial if the losing coach leaves town. Nathaniel Hackett has made one head scratching move after another, his quarterback has tremendously underperformed by any standard and the general aura surrounding the team lacks hope and direction.
Probably an upgrade to what they're feeling out in Las Vegas. The Raiders spent big capital on pieces to ramp up both sides of the ball who, despite some good individual performances, have not resulted in wins. They only seem to really play decent for a quarter or two a game and any midgame adjustments that are implemented don't seem to help. Their quarterback was literally crying at the podium last weekend. This team is that sad.
Really hard game to pick and an even harder one to sit through I'd bet. Bet the under, bet the Broncos in a game of "who wants to lose more."
Dallas Cowboys (-1.5) at Minnesota Vikings
The result of this matchup's going to have huge NFC implications. The Cowboys suffered a brutal loss in Green Bay last week after entering the fourth quarter up by 14, while the Vikings pulled off one of the unlikeliest of wins that you'll witness in Buffalo. Very different waves of momentum rolling up to Minneapolis.
Trevon Diggs and the Dallas defense have been really solid against the pass this year, but they'll have arguably their hardest test to date against Justin Jefferson. Those two should be battling it out all afternoon. Dalvin Cook's been hot too and should have some success against a front seven that's giving up the fourth must rushing yards per game.
How will Dak and the boys fare against a solid Minnesota defense? Zeke is trending in the direction of playing, but I don't think that'll factor much into success against this tough run D. Their success should come in the passing game against an exploitable secondary. Prescott's played pretty well since his return from injury, but has committed a few questionable turnovers.
The Vikings have been living off of teams shooting themselves in the foot like this, as seven of their eight wins have been by one possession. That'll be the difference here in a high scoring, afternoon tussle. Skol and the over.
Cincinnati Bengals (-4.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers
Very interesting AFC North showdown going down in Pittsburgh. The last time these teams met was in week one, when Joe Burrow and the boys caught their first L of the season as big home favorites. That was with Mr. Biscuit under center though, so a different look for their defense this go round with the rookie Kenny Pickett now starting at QB.
Ja'Marr Chase won't be returning yet from injury, which definitely limits the explosive potential of this offense. Cincy's secondary is banged up as well, which may give Pickett and his talented receivers some appetizing matchups. TJ Watt is back on the field for the Steelers' too, which exorbitantly impacts how good the defense (and team as a whole) plays. It showed last week against the Saints and it will again here.
My balls aren't big enough to hit the Pittsburgh money line here, but I love them getting 4.5 at home. Kenny Pickett is a viable fantasy starter this week too in my opinion.
Kansas City Chiefs (-6.5) at Los Angeles Chargers
Flex szn! Kansas City, the #1 team in our most recent power rankings, is traveling down to SoFi Stadium to square off against Justin Herbert and the Chargers. This should be a fun Sunday night affair.
LA seems to be getting Mike Williams back into the mix, and there's even some tempered expectations that Keenan Allen may return as well. Getting those two wideouts back would go a long way in keeping defenses out of the box, creating some plays downfield while opening up more holes for Austin Ekeler between the tackles.
They'll need all the firepower they can get to keep up with Patrick Mahomes. Like the Chargers defense, the Chiefs offense is dealing with a couple of key injuries. As long as Mahomes is healthy and rolling though, the end result will be A-OK. Isiah Pacheco should absorb a bulk of the carries when he isn't being spelled by scat back Jerick McKinnon, who'll also be involved early and often. Big opportunity for the rookie running back against a porous LA run defense.
The last four times these teams have played, 51+ points have been scored, so gimme the over. I'll also take the Chargers covering in a losing effort to Kansas City.
San Francisco 49ers (-7.5) at Arizona Cardinals (Monday 11/21)
Kyler Murray has practiced a little this week, but it's truly questionable whether he'll go or not Monday night. Even if he does, Zach Ertz will not be playing, and it's seeming like he'll be without his top wideout Deandre Hopkins, whose been dealing with a hamstring injury of his own. This spells disaster for Arizona, regardless of who they start under center.
49ers by massacre. That's all I've got on this game. It should be like 38-10. Gross way to wrap up the week, but those are the kind of games the Cards have been dealing us this season.
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@Choppinglines
*This is not gambling advice, just our opinions. Consider at your own risk
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