NFL Week 10 Starts, Sits and Sleepers
Had to take a week off of these articles, but we still posted our picks on the social media for you all. If you didn't see them, we were very wrong, at least on one in particular. Hated Joe Mixon's matchup last week vs. Carolina, and oh boy were we off. At least I saved myself some time typing the rationale for that horrible take.
After such an off week nine, I'd say we're primed for a big turnaround in week ten! At least that's what I'll tell myself... Starts, sits and sleepers:
Starts
Tua Tagovailoa vs. CLE: Not sure there's been a hotter offense in the league the last month than Miami's. Tua has his physical shortcomings but he's been able to find his top wideouts who do the rest from there. Cleveland's defense is banged up and if they can't pressure the Dolphins' QB, look for him to top 300 passing yards again and multiple scores.
Justin Fields vs. DET: The Bears' sophomore quarterback has not only arrived to the fantasy scene these last three weeks, but he's got the team playing fun, competitive football on the field too. He's now got a salivating date on deck against the worst defense in the league. Chicago's D is depleted themselves after trading Roquan Smith and Robert Quinn away at the trade deadline, so Detroit should have success on offense. That'll force Fields to keep up, which he will, and then some. 250 total yards and 3 touchdowns feels like his baseline.
Saquon Barkley vs. HOU: Houston gives up 180 rushing yards per game, good for worst in the league. Saquon is running like a man possessed right now and should be fresh off a bye. RB1 this week, chalk it up.
Khalil Herbert vs. DET: The Lions boast the second worst run defense in the NFL, although still well ahead of the aforementioned Texans. The Bears should be able to move the ball all day offensively, now it's just a matter of identifying who's going to do the bulk of that work. While he may be the backup RB (maybe 1B?), Herbert has looked more explosive this year then David Montgomery. He's averaging about 12 touches per game the last three weeks, and should have ample opportunity to pop Sunday. He's my preferred Chicago back for this matchup.
Christian Kirk @ KC: This game features two defenses that are solid at stopping the run and not-so-solid at stopping opposing passing games. Patrick Mahomes will definitely put up points, forcing the Jags to keep up. Their best receiver is going to be the primary benefactor of this as Trevor Lawrence tries to pull off the upset. 6/90/1 is a floor for Kirk here, he's had a pretty awesome season.
Chris Godwin vs. SEA: I'm well aware that Tom Brady and this offense are broken, you don't have to watch for long to realize that. Something tells me this is a get right game for Chris Godwin however. He's only had two games with over 70 yards receiving, a far cry from the seven he posted in 2021. His running mate Mike Evans should be seeing a lot of Tariq Woolen too, opening up some quick hitters underneath for Godwin. Look for him to have a nice volume day and create a little after the catch. Minimum of seven catches out in Munich.
Tyler Higbee vs. ARI: From one broken offense to another... Tyler Higbee only has three catches in the last three weeks, but the tight end position is in shambles. The Cardinals give up the second most points to tight ends, so this is a prime bounce back opportunity. In their week three showdown, Higbee caught 4/4 targets for 61 yards, which put him just outside the TE1 rankings. Seems to be a safe landing spot for him again this week.
Sits
Daniel Jones vs. HOU: Disclaimer: I don't think Daniel Jones is going to necessarily do anything wrong in this game, I just don't see him being leaned on in any capacity with the way they should be able to feed Saquon. Jones will still get his 5-10 carries, which could end up netting some chunk yardage, but it just feels like his ceiling is very low in what should be a run-heavy game plan. More appealing options undoubtedly on your waiver wire.
Derek Carr vs. IND: The Raiders' overpaid quarterback has fallen woefully short of expectations. Statistically, he's a fringe top twenty guy, but the eye test suggests otherwise. If he's not targeting Davante Adams, he's been absolutely anemic. Obviously this statement could qualify for any QB and their WR1, but his numbers aren't exactly popping with his top wideout. In five games since the beginning of October, he's averaging a pathetic 1.1 yards per attempt and has thrown one touchdown to people not named Davante Adams. Given how well he performed last season with Hunter Renfrow as his top pass catcher, his regression has been really head scratching.
Brian Robinson @ PHI: Brian Robinson's quick return from being shot twice is still the best story in the league this year. This is just an incredibly unenvious matchup for him. Jordan Davis' absence doesn't hurt and Philadelphia has allowed some running backs success this season, but those have come in closer games. I think the Eagles will be up early and that we'll see more of Antonio Gibson-- the Commanders preferred pass-catching back.
Josh Jacobs vs. IND: After going bonkers the first three weeks of October, Vegas' lead back has cooled substantially, averaging just 55 rushing yards per game since. The Colts have been really stingy against the run this season, even with Shaquille Leonard absent, like he will be again this week. This could be a good game script for Jacobs against Sam Ehlinger and the pitiful Indy offense, but we don't think that'll translate over to a big fantasy day.
Allen Lazard vs. DAL: Aaron Rodgers has been abysmal this season. His weak core of weapons is going to be reduced even further with Aaron Jones and Romeo Doubs set to miss this week. Lazard's going to see a lot of Trevon Diggs and Micah Parsons will be paying rent in the pocket. Really unideal matchup for Lazard, would stay away if you have the luxury.
Josh Palmer @ SF: The Chargers' third string receiver has been a target machine in Keenan Allen's absence. He'll be drawing a really tough matchup on the road versus the 8th ranked pass defense. San Francisco should be able to control the clock heavily with the run game, reducing the number of opportunities Palmer would see. Justin Herbert has to throw to somebody, but we expect them not to have #5 on their jersey.
Pat Freiermuth vs. NO: Kenny Pickett's first game without Chase Claypool. There's some logic in anticipating an uptick in looks to his tight end, but that'll be easier said then done against a New Orleans defense that's allowed the third fewest points to the position. For this game at least, expect those extra targets to get funneled George Pickens' way, not Pat's.
Sleepers
Jimmy Garoppolo vs. LAC: Top corner JC Jackson is out for the rest of the season, which should afford Jimmy G's targets some opportune matchups. The Niners will be able to run all over the Chargers, but their short passing game should be just as effective, especially with Deebo set to return. If you have a QB on bye or hurt, Garoppolo should be able to tally at least two passing scores in their place.
Nico Collins @ NYG: New York should be able to put up some points and control the clock, meaning Houston will need to play with some urgency when they do have the ball in order to keep pace. Prior to his injury two weeks ago, Collins had been the steadiest of Houston's pass catchers, a trend we'll see continued up in the Meadowlands. Desperate for a wideout? Collins' should have a 5/50 floor, not bad for a last minute snag.
Greg Dulcich @ TEN: Dulcich has received 17 targets in his three career games, which he's turned into a 12/182/1 line-- downright electric numbers from a tight end this year. He'll be coming off a bye to face a bottom ten defense vs. tight ends in Tennessee. Chances are good you don't have a better option available, fire up Dulc!
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@Choppinglines
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