Week 4 Fantasy Starts, Sits and Sleepers

 Week 4 Fantasy Starts, Sits and Sleepers

Here comes week four of the NFL season. In most years, this is the quarter-of-the-way mark, but now that's technically after the first quarter of week 5. Thanks 17-game schedule...

Most of our suggested starts didn't play so hot last week-- apologies on that front. We did pretty well on the sleepers front though, so we have something to hang our hat on there at least. Regardless of how our picks turned out, we've got a whole new list for y'all this week. Let's dive in:

Starts

Lamar Jackson vs. BUF: The Bills just put a bunch of their defensive personnel on the IR, including All-Pro safety Micah Hyde. We don't anticipate a ton of passing in what should be a monsoon in Baltimore, but there should be some windows when Lamar does have to. And when he doesn't, look for him to run all over the field Sunday afternoon. #8 should cross the century mark rushing and at least 200 through the air as he continues his push for a second MVP.

Kyler Murray @ CAR: My skepticism with this pick grows more and more as I type this out, but something tells me this is Kyler's breakout game here. I think he's going to be very active with his legs, racking up big points on ground. That'll ultimately open up a few big plays to Hollywood or Zach Ertz as Arizona pulls away from the Panthers on the road. Wouldn't bet the house on this one, but Murray's due one of these days for a big one.

Saquon Barkley vs. CHI: I struck out hyping up Saquon against the Panthers, but he should pop at home this Sunday. The Bears have yielded the third most rushing yards per game, which is surprising given the level of play that Roquan Smith's been playing at. Daniel Jones sucks but he should be able to do enough to keep Chicago from loading the box up too regularly. Barkley will be the benefactor of this, finding the end zone twice and racking up 115 total yards.

Aaron Jones vs. NE: The Patriots have been middle of the pack in terms of run defense through the first three weeks, but we expect Aaron Jones to get his Sunday evening. With the Packers improving health at wideout, there should be some more appealing fronts to run against. I also expect a very positive game script for Jones in this one. Five catches, 120 total yards and multiple scores isn't out of the question.

Michael Pittman Jr. vs. TEN: Tennessee's defense is pretty bad overall. This could very easily be a Jonathan Taylor game, but I actually think MPJ is going to put up the gaudier fantasy numbers. He should have minimal issue facing smaller cornerbacks Roger McCreary and Kristian Fulton en route to double digit catches and scores.

Ceedee Lamb vs. WAS: I didn't expect to feel more optimistic about Ceedee Lamb playing with Cooper Rush under center then I did him playing with Dak, but here we are. What a weird year it's been already. Lamb's averaged 81 yards and 7.5 catches per game since Prescott went out with his thumb injury, as opposed to the 29 yards he had week one with his QB1. Small sample size of course, but Ceedee can't be discontent with his situation currently. Washington's defense isn't good, look out for a productive day for the Dallas WR1.

Gerald Everett @ HOU: The Chargers' offseason acquisition at tight end has been a steady presence in the offense thus far, averaging 50 YPG. Keenan Allen is out of this one and Justin Herbert shouldn't be dialing up a ton of deep shots Sunday. That should open up a bit of targets underneath for Everett against a weak Houston defense. Six catches for 60+ and a score is a stat line I could see.

Sits

Patrick Mahomes @ TB: As impressed as I've been with some of the ways Mahomes has won this season, it hasn't really translated into fantasy football success. Expect that to continue this weekend against arguably the best defense in the league. There was some tension brewing between him and OC Eric Bieniemy in Indy, and I wouldn't be surprised if that hasn't fully blown over yet. Bad matchup for Patty down in Tampa. 

Matthew Stafford @ SF: Despite one of the better groups of pass catchers in the league, Matthew Stafford has more turnovers then touchdowns through three weeks. It's been Cooper Kupp or bust too often and teams are starting to key on that. San Francisco has a tough defense and will look to control the clock with their own running game. Jimmy G is also 6-0 vs. the Rams in the regular season. Limited snaps, tough opponent and bad prior performances spell a recipe for avoidance.

Najee Harris vs. NYJ: Quinnen Williams is a beast, and the rest of his guys on the defensive line aren't bad either. Going up against an iffy offensive line and minimal fear of the vertical passing game should set them up to tee off on Najee and anyone else in the Pittsburgh backfield. The Jets allowed 2.5 YPC to the Bengals a week ago, they'll hold the Steelers under 2.0.

James Conner @ CAR: 30 carries, 90 yards, 1 touchdown. You could tell me that was a Derrick Henry line from a hard-nosed win and I'd believe you. Alas, those are James Conner's season stats, which is brutal if you spent a second or third round pick on him. He's also less then 100%, further damaging his stock. Carolina's defense gave up a ton of ground yardage to Nick Chubb and the Browns, but have been pretty strong otherwise. The Cardinals running back is in for a long one this weekend.

Christian Kirk @ PHI: Kirk has been awesome for the Jags, taking 18 grabs for 267 yards and three scores during his first three games in Duval. It won't be as pretty in Philly, as he'll be covered by Darius Slay and James Bradberry throughout. This game is going to feature some terrible weather too, further stunting any passing games. Dude's a hit in Jacksonville, just not a good weekend for him here.

Stefon Diggs @ BAL: As terrible as the Ravens defense has been at times this season (i.e. Tua) Marlon Humphrey is back to elite form, only allowing a 1.0 passing rating when he's been the nearest defender in coverage. Diggs is as good as they come, but he'll have his hands full in this one. Add in the downpour that Baltimore will be experiencing all game and I just can't endorse the former Terp this week.

Travis Kelce @ TB: When you put a quarterback on the sits list, his top target usually can't be too far behind. Kelce is going to square off against Devin White all day in a brutal matchup for the Chiefs tight end. Don't expect an egg here, it's still Travis Kelce after all, but we anticipate Mahomes to target his receivers' easier matchups more so than challenging the All-Pro linebacker. 

Sleepers

Cooper Rush vs. WAS: I can't say I'm 100% a believer yet, but the Cowboys' second string QB has made quite an impression the last two weeks. He's played clean, moved the ball on offense and led the team to two wins. That'll improve to three on Sunday against a bad Washington defense that should provide Rush and his receivers some exploitable matchups. He won't win you a game this week fantasy-wise, but he's a very appealing streamer.

Justice Hill vs. BUF: Normally heralded for his special teams prowess, Justice Hill has actually looked as explosive as ever in the backfield this year. With shitty weather in Baltimore and the team seemingly easing JK Dobbins back into a full workload, I could see Hill getting a few extra touches then anticipated. If his hand gets hot, expect the Ravens to try and ride it to the W.

Alec Pierce vs. TEN: His superior teammate MPJ is up above, but we also think Alec Pierce could have some upside this week. He caught three balls for 61 yards in his NFL debut last week, helping the Colts to their first victory. A similar line could be in play this Sunday, maybe with a few more catches even. Again, not going to win you any leagues but a much more palatable stream then Marvin Jones or Donovan Peoples-Jones.

David Njoku @ ATL: The Falcons have given up nice stat lines to tight ends Juwan Johnson, Tyler Higbee, Colby Parkinson and Will Dissly. David Njoku is far more talented then any of the aforementioned names. With Amari Cooper facing AJ Terrell and Casey Hayward all game, Brissett should be looking for his tight end with more regularity then normal down in the ATL.

------

@Choppinglines

*I own no rights to any images found in this blog