Bravo NFL. Every year we think we know what to expect from this league and every year we're reminded that there's no science to this. Chaos rules, and this season is no different.
We've provided the current standings below as we enter the first week featuring byes. If you say you saw these records coming in the preseason, well...then you're a damn liar.
AFC North | AFC East | AFC South | AFC West |
Baltimore Ravens (3-2) | Buffalo Bills (4-1) | Tennessee Titans (3-2) | Kansas City Chiefs (4-1) |
Cleveland Browns (2-3) | New York Jets (3-2) | Indianapolis Colts (2-2-1) | L.A. Chargers (3-2) |
Cincinnati Bengals (2-3) | Miami Dolphins (3-2) | Jacksonville Jaguars (2-3) | Denver Broncos (2-3) |
Pittsburgh Steelers (1-4) | New England Patriots (8-9) | Houston Texans (1-3-1) | Las Vegas Raiders (1-4) |
NFC North | NFC East | NFC South | NFC West |
Minnesota Vikings (4-1) | Philadelphia Eagles (5-0) | T.B. Buccaneers (3-2) | San Francisco 49ers (3-2) |
Green Bay Packers (3-2) | Dallas Cowboys (4-1) | New Orleans Saints (2-3) | L.A. Rams (2-3) |
Chicago Bears (2-3) | New York Giants (4-1) | Atlanta Falcons (2-3) | Arizona Cardinals (2-3) |
Detroit Lions (1-4) | Washington Commanders | Carolina Panthers (1-4) | Seattle Seahawks (2-3) |
Wild start to '22-23, this is what we watch for! Detroit, Tennessee, Houston and Las Vegas will be on off this week, trimming our slate from 16 to 14. Less options to pick from, so time to tighten up gamblers. Let's jump into this week six preview:
Washington Commanders at Chicago Bears (-1/2) (Thursday 10/13)
Thursday Night Stinkers continue this week, featuring the Washington Commanders travelling out to Soldier Field to face the Bears. If you have anything to do early Friday, I would prioritize resting up for that rather then staying up late for this dud.
Carson Wentz and the Commanders are ranked 10th in passing yards this season, where the Bears are dead last with an unheard of 116.6 yards per game. Despite the discrepancies in yardage, these teams are right next to each other in the PPG rankings, neither scoring more then 18 per. Ominous forecast for points here.
This may be the last time this season that Chicago is favored to win. Justin Fields is slowly making improvements, which has at least kept them close in their last three games. David Montgomery being back will help balance the offense, and the defense is still decent, although underperforming thus far.
I like the Bears to win ugly at home, evening their record back up at 3-3. Wentz is too unpredictable and the Washington defense is just bad. Don't expect a ton of fireworks though.
San Francisco 49ers (-5.5) at Atlanta Falcons
The 49ers are hanging out on the east coast for another week. After smacking Carolina Sunday, the Niners took a short trip south down to the ATL to prepare for a scrappy Falcons team.
Personally, I don't see much to this game. San Francisco is a strong, tough and talented team that's simply the superior unit. Garoppolo is never flashy, but always seems to get the job done for Kyle Shanahan. They should be able to establish the run, as well as stop Atlanta's rushing attack, forcing Mariota to beat them through the air. He won't.
49ers win and cover. Easy pick here.
New England Patriots at Cleveland Browns (-2.5)
The initial aura around this game is that Bailey Zappe will be under center again for New England. That same aura suggests the Pats don't necessarily mind rolling into Cleveland without their top QB. Zappe was efficient and effective against Detroit, with only four incompletions and displaying a noticeable rapport with Jakobi Meyers. Rhamondre Stevenson was also explosive, breaking off huge chunks on the ground to help pace the offense. He'll have room to run against this soft defensive line.
Cleveland just can't seem to stay out of their own way recently. Jacoby Brissett threw an atrocious interception last week against the Chargers inside of their ten yard line, down just two points with 2:55 remaining. Cade York followed that up with a missed field goal after LA gifted them second life. Another brutal loss for the Browns, wasting away a special season by Nick Chubb.
Like the LA-Cleveland game, I feel like this game should be close. Ultimately, Browns mistakes and a clean Patriots offensive performance will be the difference. That comes down to coaching, and give me Belichick over Kevin Stefanski eight days a week. Pats to at least cover on the road.
New York Jets at Green Bay Packers (-7.5)
Upset of the week alert! The Packers are coming off a deflating loss in London, plus all of the travel and customs nonsense that accompanies it. They'll be going back home to face the Jets, fresh off of kicking Skyler Thompson and the Dolphins' ass.
Green Bay hasn't passed the eye test of late. They weren't super successful moving the ball in the passing game and seemed blissfully unaware of how much they were forcing the issue. The running game was and is great, but oft neglected. You have to wonder how much of that falls on LaFleur and how much is Rodgers audibling on the field.
This Jets defense boasts Quinnen Williams in the middle and Sauce Gardner at corner, two guys that will have a huge impact on what the Packers offense is able to accomplish. Their own talented receivers and backs should be able to find space against this currently overrated Green Bay defense. It all falls on Zach Wilson to not make any back breaking mistakes. And I don't think he will Sunday. Give me the Jets outright in Lambeau, further exposing the mediocre Pack.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts (-1.5)
Every single inch of my being says take Indianapolis at home in this one. Trevor Lawrence looked so bad vs. Philly and Houston and their running game has been regressing, but their defense has still held serve despite numerous short fields and disappointments. Teams with solid defenses have really limited the Colts' offense...well teams with any defenses in reality.
That may end up being the X-factor for Jacksonville in Lucas Oil Stadium. If they're able to consistently pressure Matt Ryan, Indy will struggle to move the ball and a turnover or two is likely. I'd be shocked if the final score's anywhere near 24-0 again, but don't expect a ton of points from this shitty Colts offense.
The Jaguars may own the Colts in Jacksonville, but they've actually lost eight of their last nine in Indianapolis. I have to roll with the more talented Colts here to secure the dub.
Minnesota Vikings (-3.5) at Miami Dolphins
Seems like Teddy Bridgewater could be cleared from concussion protocol to play this Sunday, which would be a huge boost for the Dolphins. As of now though, they're rolling with Skyler Thompson. Woof. They'll be hosting the team that originally drafted Bridgewater in 2014, the Minnesota Vikings.
Tyreek Hill's health is a concern also. He was seen in a walking boot after their loss to the Jets and is currently listed as questionable for this week. Hill showed a nice connection with Teddy during the second half of the Bills game and Miami would surely appreciate his ability to play close to 100%.
Minnesota is rolling into this big road matchup much healthier then their opponents. Justin Jefferson has rediscovered his form and Dalvin Cook is beginning to hit his stride as well. One o'clock game too, which plays right into Kirk Cousins' wheelhouse. Love the Vikings to get the win here, not sure I love the spread though. Unless Thompson gets the start, then bet the mortgage on the Vikes.
Cincinnati Bengals (-1.5) at New Orleans Saints
Revenge game on deck, this time featuring the Red Rocket Andy Dalton squaring off against his former Bengals. Assuming Jameis Winston isn't back at least, a situation to monitor.
This game has some interesting wrinkles to it. Neither defense has been stellar so far and each offense has some weapons, really raising the appeal of a relatively low line of 43.5. Whoever loses will also fall into a 2-4 hole, a pretty big motivator to get the job done.
It'll be hard to get a true read on this game until some of the injury questions surrounding Winston, the Saints' top three receivers and Tee Higgins, among others, are answered. As of the release of this article, I think Cincinnati gets the job done down in the Big Easy, and love the over in what could be an entertaining back and forth.
Baltimore Ravens (-5.5) at New York Giants
What a win for the Ravens last Sunday night over the division rival Bengals. Starting 0-3 at home against all AFC contenders would've made for some really tough sledding come December. This week they travel back to the Meadowlands, this time to face the 4-1 Giants.
Daniel Jones wasn't 100% last week, but you wouldn't have known watching him play. He made clutch throws to his patchwork crew of receivers and multiple big plays with his legs to matriculate the ball down the field against the Packers. It's possible that he'll get back Kenny Golladay and/or Kadarius Toney, neither of which would hurt keep the Ravens from loading the box against Saquon.
This'll be a true test for a Giants defense that's been solid, yet quietly under the radar. Rashod Bateman will be a little banged up if he's able to suit up, leaving the Ravens passing attack in the hands of Mark Andrews and Devin Duvernay. Ronnie Stanley should see some increased reps at left tackle, which should help Baltimore set the tone in the run game. There's also the slight assignment of containing Lamar.
With all of that on the table, this is a game John Harbaugh doesn't lose as a head coach. I'm not uber-confident in a cover, but the money line should be safe for the Ravens. They're simply the more talented team overall.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-8.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers
Start #2 for Kenny Pickett and the road doesn't get any easier as the Steelers host Tampa Bay this weekend. The Bucs defense hasn't been quite as vaunted as we originally thought; a sentiment we can echo about their offense too. If the Pittsburgh offensive line can hold up in pass protection, Pickett may have some exploitable matchups in the secondary for his talented receiving core. If not though, it could be a long day for the rookie on his back.
Diontae Johnson learning how to catch would go a long way for Pickett's outlook. He's had multiple bad drops over the last two games, very much par for the course of his career. If George Pickens continues to show out, he could be the WR1 in the Steel City before long.
Tom Brady enjoyed having receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin back last week, finding the duo ten times for 142 yards. Expect much of the same at Acrisure Stadium against a secondary that just got absolutely throttled by Josh Allen. Leonard Fournette should have a productive day on the ground too.
Outside of their week one win in Dallas, this Bucs team honestly hasn't looked good. Hard to say if that's due to Tom Brady getting older, injuries, tough matchups or a combination of any of those, but we need them to start showing out some if they're going to be -8 favorites in these games. This week they'll put it together and bury the Steelers.
Carolina Panthers at Los Angeles Rams (-10.5)
Game one of the post-Matt Rhule era is going down in SoFi Stadium against the defending Super Bowl Champion Rams. Welcome back to the head coach's seat Steve Wilks.
The Panthers will also be without starting quarterback Baker Mayfield, who suffered an ankle sprain in his former head coach's final game and is set to miss 3-6 weeks. That sets the stage for PJ Walker to get his first start of the season. We'll see if he's up for the challenge against a talented Rams defense.
Unless he's been targeting Cooper Kupp, Matthew Stafford has looked downright terrible through five games. The offensive line is so bad that it's impossible to tell if he's washed up or just trying to survive as defensive linemen bear down on him every drop back. They have virtually no running game either, despite all the hype surrounding Cam Akers. I don't trust this offense at all right now.
For what little it's worth, Carolina is 2-0 in the last two games Walker has started, although Cam Newton's legs were the true spark to his victory in 2021. The Panthers defense isn't awful and they've got some guys who can disrupt the QB. Don't expect them to sniff a win here, but I'll take Carolina to cover -10.5 against a team that's averaged 10.3 PPG the last three weeks.
Arizona Cardinals (-2.5) at Seattle Seahawks
Big aviary matchup in the NFC West, with the Cardinals flying up to Seattle for a battle with their divisional rivals. Arizona has wildly underwhelmed this season and are fortunate to not be 1-4. On the other hand, the Seahawks have really shined, thanks largely in part to the career resurgence of Geno Smith.
Seattle's passing attack has been formidable, with DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett really jiving with Geno. Put that right at the top of the list for things I didn't expect this year. It's helped open up the run game, for both Rashaad Penny (prior to his injury) and recently rookie Kenneth Walker. This team can flat out score.
They can't seem to stop teams from scoring however, surrendering the second most points in the league at 30.8 PPG. Fortunately for them, Arizona has struggled mightily to put up points, despite their high priced QB. Their inability to run the ball has surely impeded their offense and injuries to James Conner and Daryl Williams provides another iffy forecast on that front.
I'll be blunt: Seattle has looked like the better team then Arizona. And to be honest, it hasn't really be close. I'll take the home dogs this week to cover and win. Love the under of 51.5 too, the Cards' defense has actually been playing good football and their offense is just too inconsistent.
Buffalo Bills (-2.5) at Kansas City Chiefs
I know the Chiefs have played two straight in prime time, but there's no way Chargers-Broncos deserved the shine over this matchup, even when it sounded good in the preseason. This has game of the year potential, as arguably the best two quarterbacks in the league square off for the top seed in the AFC.
KC has won their two aforementioned prime time games, averaging just over 35 points per game in the process. They'll be facing a banged up Bills defense, which will help them to keep pace with Josh Allen's explosive offensive.
The Bills QB threw for 348 yards in the first half last week. He's dialed in right now and won't miss the opportunity to put it on display against his their arch rivals. Isaiah McKenzie will be back in the mix after being cleared for a concussion, which gives Buffalo it's full arsenal of weapons on the outside. Can the Chiefs' defense do enough to slow them down?
My answer is yes. The Bills didn't shine against tough opponents in Baltimore and Miami, and Kansas City is playing better then both of those teams at this moment. This should be a high scoring affair where the team who has the ball last very well may take it home. Give me Mahomes and the Chiefs at home.
Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5)
Fun Sunday night showdown in the NFC East, with the Cowboys and Eagles facing off for first place in the division. Philly will be putting the final undefeated record in the league on the line in this one against a great Dallas defense. Micah Parsons and the defensive line have been game wreckers through the first quarter of the year, but will have to be disciplined against the dynamic Jalen Hurts. It should be a fascinating matchup of two talented units.
Despite Dak returning to practice in a limited capacity, Cooper Rush will be at the reins for at least one more week. He'll be going up against his greatest challenge yet in the stingy Philadelphia defense. Darius Slay and James Bradberry have been possibly the best cornerback tandem in the league thus far and will need to be on their A game versus Ceedee Lamb and Michael Gallup. Don't expect big days for Zeke or Tony Pollard running into Jordan Davis and this stout defensive line.
I think the Eagles win this primetime tussle, but I'll take Dallas to cover. Their defense has been too good for me to imagine this one getting out of hand. Philly's still the better team and should stay undefeated, but look for it to be close.
Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers (-5.5) (Monday 10/17)
I still can't believe the audacity of Russell Wilson to utter, "Let's ride," at the end of his postgame interview last Thursday. What a cringy, self-serving move by a dude totally unaware of the moment he's in.
Denver's high priced quarterback has been flat out awful this season, to the point that his teammates frustrations are boiling over onto the field (we see you KJ). He's absolutely wasting a prime season for many young players, seemingly really messing with the team chemistry in the process. On top of all of that, they're stuck with him for the next four years on an exorbitant contract. The Broncos need him to turn it around or they'll be in the AFC West basement here for the foreseeable future.
The Chargers were sharp on offense last week but couldn't stop the Browns ground game. Luckily for them, they'll be seeing Melvin Gordon and Mike Boone this Monday instead of Nick Chubb. The Broncos backs should have some room to rumble, but I'd temper expectations from the two mediocre talents.
An extra day of rest should help Keenan Allen get back on track to play. Mike Williams has been awesome in his absence, but I can't imagine LA wouldn't welcome back their WR1. No coincidence that their involvement of Austin Ekeler the last two weeks has correlated with a jump from 19.3 PPG to 32. They'll want to keep their versatile back busy with the ball, in the running and passing game.
Chargers won't lose to Russ and the Broncos. They've got too much firepower on offense which I just can't see Denver being able to keep up with. Give me LA with the cover too.
------
@Choppinglines
*This is not gambling advice, just our opinions. Consider at your own risk
*I own no rights to any images found in this blog
Comments
Post a Comment