Big week for the dogs last week and week seven is looking similarly tempting. We've got Buffalo, Philly, Minnesota and the Rams on bye, leaving us a slate lacking some of the elite teams. Maybe a let down to some, but quite possibly a recipe for some weird shit. Have to tune in to find out what we're going to get!
Before you tune in though...make sure to keep reading to get our thoughts on what to expect from this week. Here we go...
New Orleans Saints at Arizona Cardinals (-1.5) (Thursday 10/20)
We've had some absolute duds on Thursday night the last few weeks. I fear this one looks better on paper than it'll play out in reality.
It feels like the Saints will still be trotting Andy Dalton out under center, which has seemed to stabilize their offense these last three. And that's been with his top three receivers missing majority of those games. Unfortunately, it's been the defense that's been letting down New Orleans of late, surrendering 32.3 PPG across that span.
That could spell trouble with Deandre Hopkins back in the fold for Arizona. Kyler Murray and their offense has been straight ass without their true #1 wideout, so he's probably had this week circled on his calendar for a while now. He's an adept blocker as well, which should help them to establish the running game a little more.
I like the Cards to get it done at home with Hopkins back. If they drop this one though, I think it would spell big, big trouble for Kliff Kingsbury. Take the under too at 44.5.
Atlanta Falcons at Cincinnati Bengals (-6.5)
The Falcons are currently a spotless 6-0 against the spread this year, strangely only translating to a 3-3 record. Cincinnati is also rocking a 3-3 record, though I'd argue they've looked worse then Atlanta for much of this year. -6.5 seems like a massive line considering all of that.
Ja'Marr Chase and Joe Burrow were able to get back on the same page in New Orleans and are hoping to bring some of that mojo back up to Cincy. Chase is 8th in the league with 475 receiving yards, but 55% of those yards have come from two massive performances. Consistency between those two will go a long way in getting the Bengals back to the playoffs and beyond. Getting any type of rushing production from Joe Mixon wouldn't hurt either...
They haven't beaten a team with their QB1 starting so far, so Marcus Mariota and the ball-controlling Falcons should pose an interesting matchup. Drake London and Kyle Pitts should have some space to operate against an iffy secondary, keeping Cincinnati from stacking the box too heavily and preserving the ground game.
Cincinnati should win this one at home, but I love the Falcons to continue their coverage streak. I've got to disagree with Producer Joe's claim that this'll be the game with the most yards this week, but it should be a gritty and fun Sunday afternoon affair. Leaning to the under too.
Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys (-7.5)
Dak is back. It was a fun ride for Cooper Rush but the clipboard's been handed back to him. What a better way to be welcomed back then against the worst defense in the entire league.
With all of his weapons now healthy and ample time to fully heal, Prescott should have a pretty nice day. CeeDee Lamb and Michael Gallup should have minimal issues against Detroit's weak secondary and even Dalton Schultz may break out with his QB back (if he plays anyway).
After falling 29-0 in New England, the Lions got their bye at a perfect time. Their offense had some major injuries and the defense needed to regroup. This is a tough team to come back against though. Micah Parsons has been incredible so far and will almost certainly sack the immobile Jared Goff at least once. D'Andre Swift and Jamaal Williams will need to be big in the rushing game to control the ball and keep their weak defense off of the field.
Big bounce back for big D. They should win and cover at home, with both units simply being superior. Love the over here too.
Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans (-2.5)
The battle for first place in the AFC South! This is also the second time these rivals have met, with Tennessee taking the first game in Indy.
The Colts are 2-0 since that loss, with wins over Denver and Jacksonville sans Jonathan Taylor. Deon Jackson has been huge in his absence, though they'd surely welcome back JT. Matt Ryan had far and away his best performance last week and will have an opportunity to keep that going against an average Titans' defense.
Tennessee's coming off of their bye week and should be rested up for a physical affair. Derrick Henry battered the Indianapolis defense in their first showdown (22/114/1) without Shaquille Leonard active. He's questionable currently listed as questionable, but seems to be on his way back. His presence would go a long way in neutralizing the Titans' best weapon, forcing them to lean more on Ryan Tannehill.
If Tennessee needs their quarterback to win them the game, then they'll be in trouble. It's hard to beat a divisional opponent twice also-- therefore I'm leaning toward Indy getting the dub here.
Green Bay Packers (-5.5) at Washington Commanders
Taylor Heinicke is back. With Carson Wentz set to miss 4-6 weeks with a ring finger injury, the QB reins have been turned over to the man he replaced. He'll be squaring off Sunday with all-time great Aaron Rodgers.
Washington has looked about as bad this year as any team not from Carolina, despite Wentz's astronomical pass yardage. The amount of ground they've been able to cover without routinely producing points is actually impressive, just not the kind of impressive you want to be. Heinicke may lack the physical attributes compared to Carson, but he does bring a momentous X-factor. The Commanders surely will benefit from such a spark.
The Packers have been looking for a spark like this of their own for a few weeks now. Aaron Rodgers seems flustered and hasn't thrown for over 255 yards. His receivers can't get separation and their backs don't get enough carries, even when they're rolling. It's a mess for Green Bay, who are 3-3 with one decisive victory-- over the Bears in Lambeau.
I think Washington comes into this game rested up off the bye and with a little added boost from the quarterback switch. Not sure I can confidently endorse them to win, but give me the Commandos to cover at home.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-10.5) at Carolina Panthers
I saw both of these teams play last week (enough anyway). It was ugly, putting it nicely. That being said there's no way the Bucs drop their 4th out of 5, not to Carolina.
PJ Walker might not be cleared for this game, which would subject us to a Jacob Eason game-- not exactly must-see TV. At what point does it stop making sense for the Panthers to playing Christian McCaffery? It feels like retaining his health for trading purposes should be an organizational priority. I can't hype this team up right now.
Tom Brady may need to retire if they lose Sunday. Both the offense and defense need to get right and this is a limping opponent, prime for the picking. Tampa wins this one going away, possibly shutting them out.
New York Giants at Jacksonville Jaguars (-2.5)
Underdog lock of the week. I'm not sure how the Giants aren't favored in this game, road or not. Their offense is getting healthier, which will require defenses to stay honest and not stack the box against Saquon. Daniel Jones is showing increased confidence in the pocket as well, maybe slowly securing a job for himself next year. The defense is legit and improving too with Kayvon Thibodeaux's return from injury.
The Jags have plenty of potential on both sides of the ball but seem to just fall flat far too regularly. This team isn't uber-talented, so expectations can only be so high, but some consistency from key guys like Trevor Lawrence, James Robinson and defensive end Josh Allen would go a long way. It's hard to tell how much of that is game planning/coaching and how much is execution by the players themselves. With Doug Pederson now at the helm and not Urban Meyer, I'm beginning to lean toward the latter.
Jacksonville's plenty capable of pulling off the upset at home Sunday, but this well coached Brian Daboll team will be too disciplined to lose. Giants outright in this one, Thibodeaux records 1.5 sacks.
Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens (-6.5)
If the Ravens lose this game, Greg Roman will be fired-- and that may be just the first of the dominos to fall. There truly is no excuse for it to happen. The Ravens should be embarrassed and motivated as they return home for a huge divisional game. That must translate into a big win.
The Browns are banged up on defense and extremely exploitable on the ground. JK Dobbins is back on the injury report, possibly opening the door for another big day from Kenyan Drake-- if Roman doesn't phase him out of the game plan again... Lamar should also be able to get his in the run game, some of which will come because Myles Garrett blew up the pocket. Mark Andrews vs. Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah should provide some fun battles.
Jacoby Brissett is toast at this point. Marcus Peters and Marlon Humphrey should each have opportunities to make plays against this lackluster pass attack. It would be nice to see the Ravens 8th ranked run defense contain Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt on the ground. Rookie Travis Jones has been an integral part of that success since his return, some very welcomed explosive youth on the Baltimore defensive line.
Baltimore by whatever they want. There's desperation in the air and like him or not, John Harbaugh teams get up for games like this. If they don't get it done...look out.
New York Jets at Denver Broncos (-1.5)
Another tasty dog here, a theme of the weekend (and season really). The Jets are playing winning football-- running the ball down teams throats and playing strong defense. Credit to Robert Saleh for integrating a successful San Francisco blueprint with the Gang Green.
Going up against Patrick Surtain II and a stingy secondary will force New York to stick that game plan if they want to be successful offensively. Reducing the big plays and decisions Zach Wilson needs to make will go a long way in maximizing his success out in Denver. A steady dose of Breece Hall and Michael Carter should open a few shots up for him downfield at least-- and he has to take advantage.
This feels like a must win for the Broncos. Falling to 2-5 in the AFC would be such a deep hole to try and climb out of. Russell Wilson's been terrible and now is allegedly dealing with a hamstring issue, further dimming a bleak forecast. A young, scrappy Jets defense should give their O-line some trouble, especially up the middle. This would spell trouble for Wilson, especially if his mobility is reduced.
Two months ago, I'd have thought the Broncos won this game by multiple scores. Clearly a lot's changed since then! The Jets should be able to win outright here, hammer the under.
Houston Texans at Las Vegas Raiders (-6.5)
Two teams coming off of a bye week with one win each. Shouldn't be too surprising by Houston but the Raiders can't be content with their current situation.
If Denver's game is a must win, then this is a chopping block game for Vegas. They've been figuring it out some on offense the last few weeks, who'd have thought throwing the ball to Davante Adams as regularly as possible would be an effective approach?? Josh Jacobs has looked strong on the ground too, adding some balance. The defense has been lacking however, even their defensive line featuring big names like Maxx Crosby and Chandler Jones.
The Texans should be able to pop a few big plays against this D. Brandin Cooks is due for a big game and even Nico Collins has been serviceable. Dameon Pierce is a real wild card at running back. The rookie seems to be gaining momentum as a real weapon in this league and will easily have at least 20 touches to work with Sunday. It would take a ton of pressure off of Davis Mills to win them the game, possibly even opening up some downfield shots for the long necked signal caller.
Love the over in this game, I think it should be a fun one. Raiders will win, but a cover is very in play for Houston. Check out the Instagram Sunday to see our finalized pick once the mental dust settles.
Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Chargers (-6.5)
Fans in SoFi stadium who sat through the Rams/Panthers last week will be reimbursed with this fun west coast showdown between the host Chargers and upstart Seahawks.
Geno Smith has been a revelation this season, currently 4th in the league in QBR. I'm cautiously optimistic he's able to sustain this success, with head coach Pete Carroll really going above and beyond to foster an approach that Smith has been able to shine with. Perhaps the Jets were the problem...have never seen that before right? They should be able to move the ball against the banged up LA defense.
Stopping the dangerous Chargers offense will be the bigger task at hand. If you take away their games vs. offensive dumpster fires Arizona and Denver, the Hawks are allowing 34.5 points per game. For those not in the know, that's pretty damn awful. Legit offenses have not only succeeded versus this group, but thrived. With Keenan Allen set to be back in the mix, Los Angeles should be poised to do just the same.
Hit the over in this matchup, should be ample scoring opportunities. The Chargers will win but it just feels like they'll stick to their M.O. and make this game more difficult for themselves then it should be. Seahawks cover.
Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5) at San Francisco 49ers
Two teams coming off of very different types of losses. Kansas City fell short in a hard fought battle against Buffalo, the top team in the AFC, where the 49ers got manhandled on the road by an Atlanta team they should've been able to beat. Just another weekend in the NFL.
The Niners will still be missing some key pieces of their defense, especially on the line. I don't anticipate KC going run-crazy like the Falcons did, but I could see a lack of pressure on the pocket giving Patrick Mahomes all the time he needs to pick apart the Emmanuel Moseley-less secondary. Travis Kelce is a locked and loaded TE1 and Juju should be able to put up some nice numbers again as well.
San Francisco needs Jimmy G to be better then he was in the ATL, but this is a tall task for him. If they're unable to control the clock, KC could turn this into a game of catchup that the 49ers are simply ill-equipped to hang in. They need to pound Jeff Wilson (who needs to not fumble) and get the ball into Deebo's hands early and often to try and accomplish this goal.
My prediction is that San Fran won't be able to do this. Mahomes and the Chiefs won't drop a second straight and should cover in the process.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Miami Dolphins (-7.5)
Tua's back, a very welcome development for Dolphins fans. And not a minute too soon with them dropping to 3-3 in a tight AFC.
Kenny Pickett practiced in full on Wednesday, a positive sign that he'll be good to go for this prime time showdown in South Florida. He'll be going up against a tough defense that should be able to force a turnover or two from the rookie. It should be tough sledding once again for Najee Harris running into a top twelve run D.
Miami's explosive receivers should have room to run against Pittsburgh's third string cornerbacks. If Tua can distribute the ball as well as he had been prior to his concussions, this should be a matchup he can take advantage of.
I'll take the Dolphins by slaughter here. Tomlin got a season saving win against Tampa, back to reality this Sunday night.
Chicago Bears at New England Patriots (-8.5) (Monday 10/24)
Second straight primetime matchup featuring the Chicago Bears. Not sure who approved that during the schedule making...but here we are.
It's possible Mac Jones plays Monday night, much to the angst of the Bailey Zappe fan club. I'm personally not convinced it makes New England a better team, but time will tell there. Rhamondre Stevenson's still going to get his against this fourth worst run defense, rewarding fantasy managers like myself who stashed him through a slow start.
I don't want to type much about Chicago, so I won't. Bill Belichick will likely put on a clinic against opposing quarterback Justin Fields. Roquan Smith might make a cool play or two? Or at least put up an impressive stat line. That's about all I've got on da Bears right now.
Patriots win this easily, but 8.5 is a ton of points to cover. Need a little more thought on who I think will cover, but another L for the windy city squad.
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@Choppinglines
*This is not gambling advice, just our opinions. Consider at your own risk
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