After two down weeks on the gambling front, we had a respectable bounce back in week four. The ebbs and flows of such a hobby...and all of the stress and emotions along the ride. Maybe a good thing we only have 18 weeks + playoffs to do this every year (No, I haven't sunk to the level of betting on the preseason).
After the first quarter of play, we'll officially be 25% of the way through the season. Time flies when you're having fun I guess! Let's fly on into this week five NFL slate.
Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos (-3.5) (Thursday 10/6)
An ugly Thursday night matchup featuring two of the biggest disappointments in the league so far. The Colts travel to Mile High without their star running back Jonathan Taylor, who's out with an ankle injury. Not that he's been producing this year anyway, but you want to have your most talented players on the field.
Denver has some big injury questions as well to monitor. Russell Wilson suffered a shoulder injury late in last week's loss to Las Vegas that has him at less then 100% as well. As if he needed more going against him this season.
Really tough game to gauge here as each of these squads has so much potential but have massively underachieved. We'll be keeping an eye on the injury situations, but regarding Indy-- it's not like they were hammering the ground game anyway. With Denver's talented defense, especially on the D-line, I foresee them giving Matt Ryan a ton of trouble. Give me Denver covering in a squeaker, maybe something to the tune of 20-13.
New York Giants at Green Bay Packers (-8.5)
The New York Football Giants are playing a waiting game at QB currently. Daniel Jones suffered an ankle injury late last week which resulted in backup Tyrod Taylor replacing him. Taylor proceeded to promptly get concussed, placing his week five status into question too. That would leave them with Davis Webb under center. Kenny Golladay, Wan'Dale Robinson and Kadarius Toney are set to miss this one too, leaving New York with...Richie James at receiver? Yikes.
Green Bay was a massive favorite last week as they hosted New England, barely beating them on a field goal as overtime expired. That was going up against Brian Hoyer and mainly Bailey Zappe at quarterback. Rodgers had a stagnant half though, which included a pick six. It feels unlikely that he'll start out consecutive games like that.
The Packers should destroy the Giants, but they were supposed to crush the Patriots too. With the current QB situation in New York, I've gotta take Green Bay here. If they load up the box and stop Saquon, they should win this one by 2+ scores.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Buffalo Bills (-14.5)
Kenny Pickett is officially getting his first start Sunday. Travelling up to Buffalo for it won't be the most fun way to kick off a career. The Bills defense may be banged up but there's still plenty of guys that can give the rookie trouble. It'll be up to Matt Canada to devise a solid game plan to minimize the risks he needs Pickett to take. Don't hold your breath on him being capable of that.
The Bills haven't looked great the last two weeks, losing in Miami and needing an impressive comeback to win in Baltimore. Their offense will almost certainly have a short field or two to work with in this one, not to mention this Pittsburgh defense is still missing a key cog in TJ Watt.
I think this'll be a breakout game for Gabriel Davis with Minkah Fitzpatrick likely lining up from Diggs for much of the game. The Bills should win pretty handily back home in Orchard Park.
Los Angeles Chargers (-2.5) at Cleveland Browns
The Jacoby Brissett Experience may be starting it's decline in Cleveland. The backup QB hasn't been bad but it's clear that he's just not starting material for a winning franchise. Six of their next seven games are much tougher then their start to the schedule-- facing the Chargers, Ravens, Bengals, Dolphins, Bills and Bucs. It's very possible that despite Nick Chubb's impressive start, that this team only has three or four wins by the time Deshaun Watson comes back. Too deep of a hole for a playoff push?
LA put on a tale of two halves in Houston. After storming out to a 27-7 lead, they damn near blew it late before scoring a late touchdown to win by ten. Cleveland isn't as explosive at receiver as the Texans, but they can definitely hit some home runs in the run game. If the Chargers can't slow Chubb and Kareem Hunt, then it could be a much closer game then anticipated.
The Chargers should be able to do enough offensively to win this one. Herbert looked mostly healthy last week and will have another week for his rib cartilage to continue healing. Look out for Cleveland to sneak a cover though, especially if Jadaveon Clowney and Myles Garrett return.
Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings (-7.5)
It took four weeks but we finally had Justin Fields break through with double-digit completions! In today's NFL, you might never see something like that again, so soak up the history.
In all seriousness though, it was nice to see the second year QB make a few plays through the air in New York. Chicago fans will be hoping he can carry over that momentum up to Minnesota to prevent them from stacking the box against Khalil Herbert. The Vikings have a bottom half run defense, which is an area that the Bears may be able to (try) and attack.
The Bears are the actual worst rush defense in the league, which is confusing given how good Roquan Smith has been. Dalvin Cook is far from 100% to take advantage of the matchup however, possibly opening some doors for Alexander Mattinson to be a sneaky DFS play. It seems to be the easier plan of attack rather then going at it through the air, where Chicago allows the 4th fewest yards--a stat that needs to be taken with a grain of salt given the weather conditions and quarterbacks they've faced. Which Justin Jefferson's gonna show up Sunday?
Kirk Cousins doesn't lose 1 o'clock games, especially against mediocre teams. I like Minnesota to take home the win, but Chicago will keep it close and could very possibly cover. Divisional matchups are never easy.
Detroit Lions at New England Patriots (-3.5)
I know the Lions defense is bad, but three and a half point dogs in New England? With this offense? Shew...
Jared Goff has had a resurgence at quarterback, off to his best start after four games since 2018. He won't have D'Andre Swift back, but Amon-Ra and DJ Chark could play, which would be a huge boost for an already potent attack. Jamaal Williams has been excellent in the backfield too, even when Swift has been healthy. Still plenty of firepower here.
It seems likely that Bailey Zappe will be getting the nod at starter for the Patriots. He wasn't eye popping in relief last week, but he did provide a spark for the New England offense that Brian Hoyer wasn't going to bring. This will be a much easier matchup on paper for him then what should have been a stout Green Bay defense.
This game should be exciting early, but Detroit's offense will ultimately be too much for Zappe's Pats to keep up with. Give me the Lions outright, with a fair amount of intrigue on the over of 46.5.
Seattle Seahawks at New Orleans Saints (-5.5)
Andy Dalton vs. Geno Smith. What a barn burner of a matchup at QB. Jameis Winston is still up in the air with this one, but I mentioned on the podcast last week that I'm growing in confidence that Dalton may be their best bet to get back on track. He didn't do a ton to shake that confidence in him over in London either. Definitely a situation worth monitoring.
Geno will take his league leading completion percentage into NOLA to try and get Seattle above .500. He's shown a strong connection with DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett these last few games and should have opportunities to feed them here too. Marshon Lattimore hasn't lived up to his reputation through the first quarter of the year and this is a tough assignment. Rashaad Penny should be productive as well against an average run defense.
The Seahawks are healthier and playing pretty well overall. New Orleans' weapons could give them some trouble, but Seattle should be able to keep up. I'll take them covering and don't think an outright upset is out of the question.
Miami Dolphins (-2.5) at New York Jets
Teddy Bridgewater will be leading the 3-1 Miami Dolphins into East Rutherford for a divisional showdown with the Jets. While he's a competent backup, he definitely didn't move the needle in his half of play Thursday night against Cincinnati.
Tyreek Hill should be matched up with Sauce Gardner for majority of this game in a real test for the rookie cornerback. Expect some fireworks there. Jaylen Waddle should have ample space to operate too against the lesser Jets' corners. With Quinnen Williams clogging up the middle, we don't anticipate a ton of running room for Chase Edmonds and Raheem Mostert.
Zach Wilson led a ballsy comeback in Pittsburgh last week, running off 14 unanswered to get the Jets back to .500. It was a milestone performance of sorts for the young signal caller. If his offensive line can keep the Fins at bay, he has all the weapons in the world to play with. It'll be up to him to make the right decisions.
Gimme the Jets here. Home dogs against a very bland Bridgewater, it almost feels too safe. Could the Jets actually be decent?
Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-8.5)
A battle for first place in the NFC South. Atlanta and Tampa...who'da thunk it? The Falcons will be rolling into Florida without their star running back Cordarelle Patterson, who was recently put on the short term IR. This'll open up a big workload for Tyler Allgeier and Caleb Huntley to handle against a strong defensive front. Atlanta will definitely need more out of their quarterback if they're going to hang in Tampa.
The Bucs at least flashed the ability to put up some points in their embarrassing Sunday night loss to Kansas City. While the defense looked overmatched, they're not going to be facing Patrick Mahomes every week. They should bounce back against Mariota and the Dirty Birds. Mike Evans should cash in as well, especially if Chris Godwin ends up not playing.
I felt like the Falcons could hang in this one, and they still might end up doing so, but the closer this game gets the more I feel like Tom Brady is going to take out all of his frustrations on Atlanta--a team he's 9-0 against. Tampa by slaughter rule.
Tennessee Titans (-2.5) at Washington Commanders
This shouldn't be a good game. I don't think the hotness of Ron Rivera and Carson Wentz's seats is being accurately depicted by the media. They're each more responsible for this 1-3 start then any other person in the building, outside of maybe Daniel Snyder. Another poor showing by them and changes may be imminent in our nation's capital.
Mike Vrabel doesn't let the Titans lose games like this. They've seemed to get back to their identity some the last two weeks, with Derrick Henry rushing for 199 yards on 42 carries. There's no reason Tennessee shouldn't be able to carry over that success against the Commanders bottom-half run D. Robert Woods is suddenly a little more palatable in the flex with Treylon Burks set to miss some time with turf toe.
Tennessee's game to lose here. If they let Carson Wentz throw it around like Jacksonville did, it could be tricky for them. But if they pressure him like they did Matt Ryan last week, then the cover's a lock.
Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars (-7.5)
Jacksonville put out one of the worst offensive performances we'll see all year last week in Philly. Five turnovers was fundamentally difficult to watch, but they do deserve some credit for only losing by eight after all of that.
They'll travel back home this week to face Houston, the last winless team in the league. After what Austin Ekeler did to the Texans, expect big things from James Robinson and Travis Etienne. Christian Kirk should also have a huge day against this subpar secondary.
The Jags defense should also be able to handle Davis Mills and the Texans' attack. Their 8th ranked run defense should be able to contain Dameon Pierce, forcing more onto Mills' plate-- not necessarily a winning formula. Preventing the big play will be crucial, as Houston should struggle to drive consistently against this underrated D. If Jacksonville does that, they win this with relative ease.
San Francisco 49ers (-6.5) at Carolina Panthers
Probably the least appetizing game on the docket-- a theme we've seen from Carolina a couple times this year. San Francisco just rolled the Rams Monday night, so the short week might be a factor against them? But that's probably it. Deebo and Jeff Wilson should get theirs early and often before getting to rest late.
Even if Jimmy G and the offense don't show up, the defense alone may be enough to take down Baker Mayfield and the Panthers. They've given up just 11.5 points per game, a number we expect to fall even lower come Sunday evening. Devastating matchup for the former #1 pick, as he continues to build his bust resume. Give me San Fran covering, put the house on it.
Dallas Cowboys at Los Angeles Rams (-5.5)
Cooper Rush's ride continues to Los Angeles for a date with the reigning champions. The Rams have to be embarrassed after the waxing they just took in prime time. I'm not convinced they'll be able to bounce back this week though, even as sizeable favorites.
LA will still be essentially fielding a practice squad offensive line, which was a huge problem for them against San Fran. Micah Parsons must be licking his chops crunching that film. The Dallas defensive line will have a massive impact on the outcome this game. Trevon Diggs will be important too. Nobody's going to totally neutralize Cooper Kupp, but if they can limit him then it should severely stunt this offense.
CeeDee Lamb has reemerged with Rush under center, but also draws a tough matchup with Jalen Ramsey. The elite corner has shown some cracks in the armor this year as he battles back from injury, so don't put it past Lamb to put up a decent line. Michael Gallup and Dalton Schultz' returns give the Cowboys even more weapons to work with too.
I really like Dallas to cover here, and will probably sprinkle some on their money line too. They've simply looked stronger per the eye test, even with their backup quarterback in. Pencil Cooper Rush in for a 4-0 start after this one.
Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5) at Arizona Cardinals
The final undefeated team in the league will put their perfect record on the line down in the Glendale desert. A forecast in the upper 80's has to be appealing to Philly after the shit they had to play Jacksonville in. The Cards' defense has played better after their opening debacle against Kansas City, but this is easily the most dynamic offense they've faced since then.
Jalen Hurts is primed for a big game after his least productive game of the season. AJ Brown and Devonta Smith should be able to find space throughout this one while Hurts and Sanders hold down the running game. Definitely expect a bunch of points to be scored here by Philadelphia.
Arizona has started games so lethargically this year, a fact that doesn't bode well for them against the high-powered Eagles attack. If they fall behind early, it'll be a very long day for Kyler Murray and the offense against a top-tier defense.
This Cardinals team feels like they should be better then they are, but maybe that's just the excitement aura that Murray occasionally conjures up. He hasn't be great this year and I don't really anticipate that changing until Deandre Hopkins is back in the picture. Eagles should win here and probably cover.
Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens (-2.5)
Man am I unconfident in this game as a Ravens fan. This team looks like the best team in the NFL some minutes and then the polar opposite for other stretches of time. A 2-2 record but they've only been trailing for 14 seconds of game time. Insane, such a frustrating season.
There's a chance Ronnie Stanley is back this weekend, which would be a massive development for Baltimore. Outside of some spectacular plays by Lamar, the run game has been incredibly mediocre through the first four games. The left tackle's return should help open up some welcomed rushing lanes, as would Gus Edwards' potential debut. Rashod Bateman's sat out practice yesterday however, which is concerning. Could be in for a Devin DuverDay.
Joe Burrow was sacked 13 times in the Bengals' first two losses to start off the season. In their two wins since, he's only been sacked thrice. I wonder what helped spark the turnaround? The Ravens pass rush has been iffy at best so far, and the secondary--while solid overall-- has made some painful mistakes. Cincinnati isn't a team those mistakes can happen against.
Sadly, this feels like a third consecutive win for Cincinnati. It's felt like they've had our number ever since Burrow's emergence and the current state of our team just reeks of pessimism. Maybe that's just me...regardless, I won't be throwing any money on Baltimore Sunday night.
Las Vegas Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs (-6.5) (Monday 10/10)
An AFC West affair wraps up our week five lineup, with a battle in Arrowhead between Las Vegas and Kansas City. In their last eight matchups, the Chiefs have averaged an absurd 37.4 PPG. Need a hammer for your over?
KC was nearly perfect last week prior to letting their foot off the gas late, and that was on the road against a substantially better defense then they'll be encountering this week. Andy Reid vs. Josh McDaniels in a coaching showdown too? Cake.
Chiefs with a dominant win Monday night, making a statement to the rest of the division that they're still Kings of the West. You read it here first.
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@Choppinglines
*This is not gambling advice, just our opinions. Consider at your own risk
*I own no rights to any images found in this blog
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