Week seven answered a lot of questions for us, or so it seems anyway. The Bucs, Packers and Broncos all suck, while Seattle and any team from New York is balling out. Still a few answers to seek though: can Atlanta hang in the league long term? What's up with the Ravens inability to play four whole quarters? Are too many Chargers stars on the IR for them to compete?
Well, LAC is on bye this week, so we won't get that answer just yet. But we may get some insight to the Ravens, Falcons and more. Here's what we expect from our week eight lineup:
Baltimore Ravens (-1.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Thursday 10/27)
This will likely be the final time the Ravens have to square off against long time rival Tom Brady. Never felt like this day would come...and to catch him during arguably the worst stretch of play in his career no less. Baltimore needs to bury TB12 and the Bucs.
Both of these teams are banged up offensively, but it seems like all of their main weapons will at least be available in some capacity. Gus Edwards is a big name to watch for here, as the Ravens rushing attack really benefitted from his return last week. Lamar needs to have a get-right performance with Tampa missing four members of their secondary. Hopefully Greg Roman can find some way to facilitate that.
Ravens are simply playing better then this old Tampa Bay team right now and should be able to do enough to secure a road victory Thursday. Don't expect them to run away with it though, Baltimore seems incapable of that so far.
Denver Broncos at Jacksonville Jaguars (-2.5) (9:30 AM in London)
The tradition of Jacksonville in London continues, this time with a shitty matchup vs. Denver. This game should chalk itself up to being nearly to opposite of must-watch TV.
I don't see either the Jaguars or the Broncos being able to move the ball with much consistency, regardless of if it's Russell Wilson or Brett Rypien under center. Both defenses should wreak havoc on the opposing offensive units.
This game will likely come down to which team can make the least mistakes. In that vein, I tend to think Denver is better equipped to get the win. But it's so hard to pick them to win right now, so give me the Jags and the under in an ugly Sunday morning showdown.
Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons (-4.5)
From one bad game to the next-- with this one going down in the ATL. The Panthers have to be riding high after a thorough ass kicking of Tampa. Atlanta's pretty much in the opposite boat after getting smacked in Cincy.
AJ Terrell's injury may open the door for DJ Moore to have some easy matchups outside. It'll be up to PJ Walker to take advantage. If he's unable to do so, this Carolina offense should be pretty inexplosive.
I don't anticipate the Falcons' offense being more fun. They seem adamant to avoid passing as often as possible, which isn't a bad strategy all considered when Marcus Mariota's your quarterback. This is an underrated defense they'll be going up against too.
Atlanta should be able to win this game with relative ease. I'm a fan of Walker, but he and the Panthers may have peaked vs. Tampa. Atlanta should win and boost their chances of winning the NFC south in the process. Under hits too.
Chicago Bears at Dallas Cowboys (-9.5)
Down to big D we go for a battle between the Bears and the Cowboys. This game sounds so much better on paper then what we'll probably get-- a theme for many of the games this week.
Chicago looked as sharp as they have all year in their upset Monday night at New England. Justin Fields looked like as capable a dual threat QB as he has in his career. It'll be much tougher for him against a stout Dallas defensive front. Darnell Mooney will also see a ton of Trevon Diggs, likely leading to a subpar statline ahead for their WR1. Curious to see the snap splits between David Montgomery and Khalil Herbert too.
Dak and the offense didn't look great in his first week back from injury, but they got the job done. The Bears defense will be a much stiffer challenge for them. If they're able to exploit the Chicago run defense, it should open up some opportunities down the field for Prescott. But if not, it could be another day of scraping together just enough points for the win.
Love the under again in this matchup. Dallas should win but I think 9.5 is a bit too many points to cover the way their offense has looked thus far.
Miami Dolphins (-3.5) at Detroit Lions
We finally have a matchup that could be fun, with the Dolphins traveling up to the Motor City to face the Lions.
Dan Campbell's defense finally showed up last week in Dallas. Unfortunately their offense is still MIA, with seven turnovers and six total points in their last two games. There's losing and then there's losing like the Lions are right now. It isn't sustainable in the NFL and people are likely to lose jobs if it continues. Amon-Ra St. Brown being cleared to play would go a long way in helping them compete in this one.
Miami has looked like one of the best teams in the league at times this season. They've also completely sputtered periodically, particularly on offense. The inconsistency at quarterback surely plays a part in this, so having Tua back for consecutive weeks should help. Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle should feast against this weak Detroit secondary. It wouldn't shock me to see them each clear the century mark, regardless of how many points the Dolphins manage to score.
I like Miami to get it done at Ford Field Sunday. If St. Brown plays, it could be close, and the over has some appeal. But if not, roll with Miami against the spread and the under.
Arizona Cardinals at Minnesota Vikings (-3.5)
Another game hosted by an NFC North team with some potential for fireworks.
Arizona looked better last week with Deandre Hopkins back at receiver, at least showing a little competence offensively. It didn't translate into a ton of productivity though, with their defense scoring a third of the team's points off Andy Dalton interceptions. They should have opportunities to capitalize on Kirk Cousins penchant for a bone headed play or two each game. It'll be up to Kyler to keep it close the rest of the time.
When Cousins isn't throwing questionable balls up in the air, he does usually have some success targeting his talented receivers. Justin Jefferson's bounced back from an early slump, posting three straight 100-yard games, and even Adam Thielen is starting to work his way back into the picture. When they play a clean game, they should be as solid an offense as there is.
The Cards' defense will force them to muck it up some, allowing this game to stay competitive. I think Minnesota finds a way to get to win but will not cover. Another game I'm leaning the under toward...been that kind of year.
Las Vegas Raiders (-2.5) at New Orleans Saints
It's officially official: Andy Dalton is the starting quarterback for the New Orleans Saints. Dennis Allen told the media this week that Winston is back and practicing in full but the team is sticking with the Red Rocket under center-- a move I wrote about giving them the best chance to win a few weeks ago.
This announcement should reassure Dalton, allowing him to focus more on doing his job rather then how much longer it'll be his. The continuity will benefit Chris Olave and Alvin Kamara, who've each performed well the last few weeks. Whenever Michael Thomas and/or Jarvis Landry return, this offense could really start humming.
Unfortunately for New Orleans, their defense has been bad. They're middle of the pack in yards allowed, but they've given up 28.6 points per game-- good for second worst in the league. Not what they expected with some of the names on that side of the ball + a defensive guru at head coach.
The Raiders will be able to pick apart this unit. Davante Adams is going to continue to get his through the air and Josh Jacobs is playing his best ball in years. They looked really sharp off their bye last week, albeit against a much worse Houston team, and should be able to keep that momentum rolling into the NOLA.
Give me Las Vegas and the over, should be a fun game.
New England Patriots (-1.5) at New York Jets
One of these teams is 3-4 and fresh off of an embarrassing 19-point defeat at home on Monday Night Football. The other is 5-2, in the midst of a four game winning streak. Would you believe me that the 3-4 team are 1.5 point favorites? On the road no less. I don't understand this line at all.
Maybe oddsmakers are particularly low on New York after Breece Hall's season ending ACL injury? Or maybe they still think this is the AFC East from the last 15 years? It's hard to say, but there's no way the Jets lose here. Their defense is playing lights out, going up against Mac Jones who probably isn't 100% physically or mentally confident right now. They should give him trouble all afternoon. Zach Wilson has been dull yet efficient, avoiding big mistakes and making enough plays along the way to keep the offense moving. We'll see how he handles Belichick's game plan.
The Patriots should have trouble establishing the run against this tough defensive front, which helped to kickstart their demise against Chicago. There has to be a deliberate effort by New England Sunday to get that going, otherwise it'll be another long day for the offense. They would certainly benefit from the defense giving them a short field or two.
Jets should be able to win this at home, they're simply playing better right now.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Philadelphia Eagles (-10.5)
This game should be a massacre. Philadelphia's secondary is arguably the best in the league. Kenny Pickett's thrown seven interceptions in roughly three and a half games. He'll add at least two more to that by the end of this one.
The Eagles' dynamic offense should move the ball with relative ease against an overhyped Pittsburgh defense. Coming off of a bye, they should be rested and motivated to roll their in state rival at the Linc.
I apologize if you were looking for more insight on this game. The Steelers' are going to get their asses kicked, possibly even shut out. Much better games on this one o'clock block!
Tennessee Titans (-2.5) at Houston Texans
The big story to follow as this game gets closer is the health of Titans' QB Ryan Tannehill. He didn't practice yesterday but was optimistic when talking to the media about his injury.
Regardless of who's under center for Tennessee, it should have minimal impact on the outcome. Derrick Henry should ravage the league's worst rushing defense for all four quarters. If Malik Willis is at the helm for, we'll be subjected to a few fun scrambles. And their defense should be able to get after Davis Mills in the pocket, forcing a mistake or two from the second year quarterback.
Titans are only two point favorites in most sportsbooks that I've seen. Lock that one in ASAP-- Houston blows.
Washington Commanders at Indianapolis Colts (-3.5)
Welcome to the big show Sam Ehlinger. The former Texas Longhorn will get his first career start after owner Jim Irsay essentially demanded Matt Ryan to be benched. Quite a tumultuous situation we seem to have on our hands in Indianapolis.
Jonathan Taylor is back to full health, which'll undoubtedly help take some of the pressure off the young quarterback. Michael Pittman Jr. will likely be his go to target, but Parris Campbell's recent emergence underneath may make him Ehlinger's true safety blanket. Temper your expectations for this offense regardless, I think they'll struggle vs. the Washington defensive line.
Taylor Heinicke and the offense should be able to move the ball against a Colts' defense that could be missing Kwity Paye and Shaquille Leonard again. If Brian Robinson and Antonio Gibson are able to get rolling on the ground, which they should be able to, it'll only aid that effort. Expect more from Curtis Samuel and Jahan Dotson than Terry McLaurin, who should be seeing a healthy dose of Stephon Gilmore.
Love Washington outright in this one, further entrenching Heinicke as their starter for the remainder of the 2022-2023 season.
San Francisco 49ers (-1.5) at Los Angeles Rams
General disclaimer: For as much star power as these teams boast, I think this game's going to suck. Matthew Stafford and the Rams have been wildly incapable offensively, completely failing to establish the run. This has resulted in the 34 year old quarterback getting teed off on in the pocket, quelling any attempt at a vertical passing game. Practice squad offensive lines tend to lead to these things.
The 49ers aren't exactly radiating confidence in their own right however, coming off of two straight ass kickings from the Falcons and Chiefs. Expect more from Christian McCaffery with a week of practice under his belt. It'll be curious to see who spells CMC in the backfield with Elijah Mitchell back in the mix. It's possible we even see an RB 1A/1B situation. Deebo and Brandon Aiyuk have to stay involved too.
The Niners should get it done but this isn't a super confident pick of mine. And surprise, we like the under here too.
New York Giants at Seattle Seahawks (-2.5)
If you'd have told me at the beginning of the season that the Giants/Seahawks week 8 affair would have substantially more on the line then the Rams/Niners, I'd have asked for a hit of what you were smoking. Seven weeks in though, here we are.
Seattle's a slight home favorite over the 6-1 G-Men, even with DK Metcalf set to miss this one. Marquise Goodwin and Dee Eskridge were the two to step up in his absence, so expect much of the same again here. Their offense will run as far as Kenneth Walker can take them. The rookie has been superb this season, averaging 6.1 YPC and stepping up big time after Rashaad Penny went down for the year. He had a late start to his rookie campaign but he's a dark horse to win Offensive Rookie of the Year.
Daniel Jones and his Giants have managed to find ways to win week in and week out. Going to the home of the 12th man may be one of their most difficult environments to try and continue their unlikely start. Saquon Barkley should be featured early and often on the ground against the league's third worst run defense. Expect a big day out of the Penn State alum. He'll pace the way for New York to squeak out another win in Seattle, leaving them at 7-1.
Green Bay Packers at Buffalo Bills (-11.5)
This game looked marquee at the beginning of the season. Now it's damn near missable (which apparently isn't a word?).
The Packers suck-- on offense, defense and special teams. They've looked barely good for a few quarters this year, most of which came against the shitty Bears. Now they have Aaron Rodgers going to Pat McAfee talking about how his teammates need to start having their playing time cut accordingly with their errors. Problem is...there's been a lot of errors...you can't bench everyone. And maybe he needs to look in the mirror himself with those statements.
Buffalo has been a machine, in all facets of the game. Josh Allen would be the MVP if the season ended today, Stefon Diggs is the perfect receiver for him and even Devin Singletary has impressed in the running game. They're the Super Bowl favorites for a reason and have walked the walk so far.
Bad weather in the forecast for Orchard Park on Sunday night, which should favor the Packers' skill set. But it's hard to put any weight into that with how Matt LaFleur has botched many a game plan this season. Bills win but a rainy night could make this game closer then it should be.
Cincinnati Bengals (-4.5) at Cleveland Browns
An AFC North Monday night matchup to wrap up week eight. The Bengals are favored on the road against their division rivals and rightfully so with how each team has looked of late. Joe Burrow is absolutely locked and loaded right now, with all three of his main receivers benefitting from it. Even Hayden Hurst has gotten off to arguably his hottest start ever. On top of that, their defense hasn't allowed a touchdown in the second half.
Cleveland is catching Cincy at a terrible time. Jacoby Brissett is melting in front of our eyes and the banged up defense is paying the price. As good as Nick Chubb has been, he can really only do so much with the current state of this team. At what point record-wise would it not even worth it for Deshaun to come back?
Bengals win this one going away, embarrassing the Browns in the process. The over looks tasty here too at 46.5.
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@Choppinglines
*This is not gambling advice, just our opinions. Consider at your own risk
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