Week 5 Starts, Sits and Sleepers
Starts
Josh Allen vs. PIT: The Bills have looked very vulnerable in their last two road games. A homecoming in Buffalo is likely just what the doctor ordered, especially against a rookie quarterback. I expect a few short fields off of turnovers, which will facilitate at least one score on the ground by Allen. Pittsburgh also has a pass defense ranked in the bottom half of the league, so he'll have some good matchups there. You were never going to not start Josh Allen, but he's likely QB1 this week.
Trevor Lawrence vs. HOU: Five turnovers a week ago. Bad. Rebound game at home vs. Houston. Good, very good. After a tough loss in Philly, the Jags should be more than motivated to stomp the winless Texans. Jacksonville should be able to do whatever they want in this one, by ground or by air. I see 3-4 touchdowns by Lawrence, finding Christian Kirk for at least one of them.
Jeff Wilson vs. CAR: The long time San Francisco vet has really come on strong since Elijah Mitchell's injury, both in terms of production and volume. He'll be travelling cross country this week to face a decent Carolina defense. The offense is the real problem for the Panthers, which should lead to a few short fields and a positive game script for the run. Wilson should easily eclipse 20 carries and likely puts one or two into the end zone.
James Robinson vs. HOU: The Texans give up lots of yards, the fourth most in the league, including the second most on the ground. While we think Trevor Lawrence is going to put up some big numbers, his primary back is going to pull his weight along the way. Robinson only had 8 carries last week, well below his average of 14.8 per game, so he should be rested up for the Texans. Fire him up as an RB1.
DK Metcalf @ NO: The recently extended Seahawks receiver had a tough start to 2022, only recording 71 yards on 11 receptions in two games. While he's only recorded one more catch in the last two games, he's upped his yardage to 213, raising his YPC by over 11 in the process. Earning that paycheck so far. Marshon Lattimore got torched in London by Justin Jefferson and likely will be on DK for much of this game. Expect Metcalf to continue his hot streak in what could be a fun back and forth in New Orleans.
Tee Higgins @ BAL: Marcus Peters was limited all week in practice for Baltimore, indicating he'd probably be less then 100% if he does play. Assuming Marlon follows Ja'Marr Chase all game, Tee Higgins may have some laughably easy matchups. He's been the most productive Bengals receiver overall, a bar I expect him to live up to Sunday night. 8 catches, 100+ yards and at least one score.
TJ Hockenson @ NE: Hockenson recorded the best fantasy day of any tight end last week with top receivers St. Brown and Chark out. Even if these wideouts are back for New England, Jared Goff has to be feeling a strong connection with his tight end. I'm not sure he'll be the TE1 again but he's a must start.
Sits
Kyler Murray vs. PHI: No balance on offense all year, going up against a defense that's allowed the third fewest yards in the leagues, who have two excellent corners. Not an optimistic forecast for Kyler Murray fantasy owners. This Arizona team has sputtered all year through the first half, which may put them into a deep hole if they can't keep up with Philly. If the Cards have to play one-dimensional ball to catch up, it'll fall right into Darius Slay and James Bradberry's wheelhouses.
Matthew Stafford vs. DAL: No touchdowns last week on Monday Night Football for Matty Stafford. While Dallas may not be quite as elite on defense as San Fran, they have plenty of elite pieces that can give the Rams fits. Micah Parsons should be paying rent in the LA backfield this weekend, which spells trouble for the immobile quarterback. Maybe one TD this week at least, but we have low expectations overall for the Rams' signal caller.
Chase Edmonds @ NYJ: If you've read our last couple of these articles, you know how much we love Quinnen Williams on Chopping Lines. Chase Edmonds will be the next to be stifled by him this week. With Teddy Bridgewater under center, the Jets should feel comfortable compressing the defense some toward the line. This will severely stunt an already lackluster rushing attack. Many better options out there then the touchdown-dependent Edmonds.
Antonio Gibson vs. TEN: The Commanders running back has averaged 16.5 touches per game, which he's parlayed into a lackluster 68.5 YPG. He's absolutely fallen victim to the Carson Wentz roller coaster that's provided some awful rushing opportunities. With Brian Robinson Jr. getting closer to returning, Gibson's grip on the starting job has to be slipping. Steer clear of him this week and probably beyond.
Amari Cooper vs. LAC: The Browns #1 receiver has had exactly 101 yards in a game twice this year. In the other two games, he's combined for 26. He's epitomized boom or bust, no thanks to shaky play from Jacoby Brissett under center. Going up against JC Jackson this week won't be fun for the Cleveland wideout. If you've got the depth, park Amari on your bench this weekend.
Diontae Johnson @ BUF: Johnson has been okay for fantasy purposes this season. Not much more, maybe a little less. With Kenny Pickett in last week, George Pickens was the main benefactor. Johnson will still have some games where he gets his, but expect a one sided matchup here in the rookie QB's first start. A good game script for Diontae is likely, but I don't anticipate he does much with it.
Irv Smith Jr. vs. CHI: Not a flashy name here at tight end, but Smith has averaged five targets a game. In the fantasy football realm of tight ends, that's actually been pretty workable. Roquan Smith should limit him pretty substantially in this one, especially with more appealing matchups for Kirk's receivers. Play him if you need to, but there's probably better options out there.
Sleepers
Geno Smith @ NO: The most accurate quarterback in the league through the first four games... Some things you just can't make up. Geno's going to be taking his talents into New Orleans for a showdown with a reeling Saints team. I think he'll have success targeting his main guys and moving the ball on this NOLA defense, en route to an upset victory.
Alexander Mattinson vs. CHI: Chicago allows more rushing yards then any other team. Dalvin Cook is less then 100% and it's possible the Vikings just blow this game open and cruise. I like Mattinson as a sneaky play here, even if Cook does end up getting the start.
Robert Woods @ WAS: Treylon Burks is set to miss a few weeks with turf toe, opening up a few targets for the Titans #2 receiver Robert Woods. Tennessee should have no trouble running it on Washington's defense, but someone has to catch the few passes they'll throw. Woods is most likely going to be the man doing that.
Juwan Johnson vs. SEA: Seattle just got smoked by TJ Hockenson and probably haven't gotten better at covering tight ends in the week since. Johnson won't have nearly the day TJ did, but he could end up being a nice safety blanket who finds the end zone for the Saints. If you really need a tight end, you could do worse.
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@Choppinglines
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