Week 3 Fantasy Starts, Sits and Sleepers

Week 3 Fantasy Starts, Sits and Sleepers

I was finally able to get my first fantasy win of the season last week. 1-7 to kick things off...has been a tough year for those of us who went RB heavy early watching receivers like Cooper Kupp, Tyreek Hill and Stefon Diggs just pop off in these early weeks. We're expecting a reversion to the mean at some point, but it's seeming less and less like a guarantee.

Last week's article we nailed Josh Allen and Courtland Sutton's big days, as well as Tom Brady and Kyle Pitts' duds. We had some misses though, getting our hopes up on the likes of Joe Burrow and Leonard Fournette--who were pedestrian at best. You win some, you lose some. At least we look good doing both.

Onto week three we go!

Starts

Patrick Mahomes (@ IND): The Kansas City quarterback was out of his mind week one, but was quietly efficient en route to their big win over the Chargers. I think we're going to see the former version of Mahomes this Sunday, matching up against an Indianapolis defense that has severely underperformed. Shaquille Leonard hasn't played yet (and is out again), Stephon Gilmore hasn't been his usual elite self and they have the worst pass rush in the league. Bad combination there with the Chiefs coming to town. Patty's gonna pick Indy apart all afternoon.

Kirk Cousins (vs. DET): I tricked myself into thinking Kirk would show up in prime time last Monday...shame on me. He was downright terrible in the Vikings' pitiful loss at Philadelphia. Darius Slay locked down Justin Jefferson and Cousins was unable to get the offense moving otherwise. 

He won't have that issue Sunday, facing the team that originally drafted Slay (and still haven't really replaced him). While I think Detroit will steal the upset, it'll be a high scoring game that'll allow Cousins to pad his stats. 300 yards and three scores is his floor here.

David Montgomery (vs. HOU): He was the sole bright spot on Chicago's offense a week ago, rushing for 122 yards at a 8.1 YPC clip in Green Bay. Going up against a Texans team that allowed huge days to Jonathan Taylor and Javonte Williams should be a very appealing matchup for Montgomery. Look for this to be a favorable matchup and game script for him here. 115 rushing yards and a score should be his baseline.

D'Andre Swift (@ MIN): The man has been superb in 2022, averaging 10 yards per carry and 12.4 yards per reception. Absolutely has lived up to every facet of hype he was receiving. He'll be facing a Vikings team that just allowed 163 yards on the ground to the Eagles. With Amon-Ra St. Brown's emergence and some surrounding competent pieces, Minnesota can't even load up against Swift. He'll clear the century mark for a second time this week with two total scores.

Davante Adams (@ TEN): Davante Adams was completely neutralized by Arizona's relatively weak secondary last week. It was a shocking development after he dismantled the Chargers. He'll bounce back this week in Nashville, as the Titans struggle mightily at stopping the pass. After a demoralizing defeat at the hands of Josh Allen, they'll surely want to redeem themselves. It won't happen week three though with Adams in town. Double digit catches and two tuddys for the Raider receiver.

Drake London (@ SEA): The rookie has gotten off to an unexpectedly strong start going up against the likes of Marshon Lattimore and Jalen Ramsey. He'll face much lighter competition this week up in Seattle. The weather is looking as nice as one could ask for in the Pacific northwest as well, setting the table nicely for London. We'll talk about his QB a little further down, but I think a 6/70/1 line is London's floor in this matchup. Look for an even more productive day.

TJ Hockenson (@ MIN): The fourth year tight end has had a slow start to the year, a storyline that rings true with majority of tight ends. This is a nice breakout spot for him. Dallas Goedert had a good bit of success against this Vikings defense in week two and TJ should have his chances Sunday as well. With Patrick Peterson and Cam Dantzler working against St. Brown and Chark outside, the former Hawkeye should have his first good statistical day of 2022. 

Sits

Russell Wilson (vs. SF): Dude just completed 45% of his passes against the Texans. San Francisco's defense is miles better then Houston's and Jerry Jeudy won't be 100% on the off chance he plays. Give me many, many quarterbacks off of waivers this week instead of Dangeruss.

Tom Brady (vs. GB): Second straight week for Tom on this list. We nailed this sit last week as he conquered his NFC South nemesis New Orleans and our expectations are maybe lower this go round with Mike Evans suspended. Green Bay has a talented defense and is going to try and establish the run. This should limit Tom's opportunities to throw to his patchwork cast of receivers. It won't be pretty when he does. 

Leonard Fournette (vs. GB): With another Buccaneer on this list, it's pretty clear to see that I love the under for this game. I thought Lenny was going to pop last week to help take the pressure off of Brady and the passing game. That was incorrect... Green Bay's rush defense is exploitable, but with such minimal talent on the outside, the Packers should be packing the box early and often. Tough sledding for Fournette.

Joe Mixon (@ NYJ): Really bad start to the year for a guy who was generally drafted in the top eight of fantasy drafts. His offensive line has done him no favors though, failing to get any push off the line of scrimmage. With a beast like Quinnen Williams in front of them this weekend, it should be no different. Mixon will get his volume, especially if the Bengals can take an early lead, but don't foresee him doing much with it.

Hollywood Brown (vs. LAR): The current #1 Cardinals wideout has flashed the same frustrating qualities he showed in Baltimore: crazy home run potential and wildly inconsistent hands. I've never hated that trade for the Ravens and it ages more nicely each passing game. Jalen Ramsey and the Rams will lock Hollywood down for much of this one, hard to trust him in a starting slot here.

DK Metcalf (vs. ATL): He has a bad quarterback and is facing a solid set of corners. Bad combination for any receiver. Metcalf has the physical prowess to still find his way open some, but even when he does, how much can we trust Geno to get it to him? I think the Falcons stifle the Seahawks' passing attack Sunday afternoon.

Zach Ertz (vs. LAR): The Rams have allowed 58 points in two games, but only four scoreless receptions for 29 yards to tight ends. Not really a positive way to spin that for Zach Ertz owners. Arizona's limited weapons may help him to be a little more productive, but not expecting much from Mr. Ertz here. 

Sleepers

Marcus Mariota @ SEA: The semi-dual threat quarterback has a pretty cake matchup against Seattle. Drake London's emergence has allowed the duo to elevate their performance, and there's no reason it won't continue this week. Nice weather and an iffy opposing defense should give Mariota plenty of chances to shine. Throw in a short field or two and the former #2 pick overall is well worth a stream.

JD McKissic vs. PHI: Philadelphia should be able to jump out to some early scoring facing a Washington defense that's been a sieve through two weeks. This would provide a positive game script for the Commanders' pass catching back JD McKissic to steal a few carries from Antonio Gibson and get some extra work in the short receiving game. Matching his seven catches from last week is totally possible here and he's due to find paydirt on one of them.

Greg Dortch vs. LAR: The surprising #1 receiver in Arizona is set for another good day with the primary targets in front of him having stern matchups. He and Kyler have shown pretty solid chemistry out the gate and I think he rides that to an eight catch day in what could be a slugfest out west.

Tyler Conklin vs. CIN: When the Jets signed CJ Uzomah and Tyler Conklin in free agency, most expected the former to be the main pass catching tight end in the offense. Not the case thus far, as Conklin has paced the position with ten catches, 56 yards and a score. They're not eye popping numbers, but those are rare finds in the tight end position these days. If Conklin can deliver a 5/40/1 line for you today against a not-so-good Bengals defense, you take that to the bank off the waiver wire.

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@Choppinglines

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