Week 1 Fantasy Starts, Sits and Sleepers

Week 1 Fantasy Starts, Sits and Sleepers

The fantasy drafts are done. The values have been celebrated, targeted players chosen a slot ahead of you have delivered their anguish, waiver wires scoured. Lineups are set and it's go time. The most wonderful time of the year.

For some, their season is already underway. We apologize for not getting this out prior to the Thursday night game, but in our defense if you're rocking any Bills or Rams players you were probably starting them anyway. It's unlikely we ever have this blog out in time for the Thursday game, so just get used to that now. Apologies to Allen Robinson and Cam Akers owners though...sheesh.

But the rest of the slate...we'll have those ready for y'all. And we can't wait any longer, so let's get into it:

Starts

Jalen Hurts (@ DET): One of the largest hype trains from this offseason revolved around the Philadelphia QB. In a make or break third season, the team traded for and extended #1 receiver AJ Brown to team with Devonta Smith and Dallas Goedert to maximize his chances of success. It falls on Jalen's shoulders to succeed with this group--and he will in week one versus a weak Detroit secondary. 

This game should have some back and forth to it and with the uncertainty surrounding the running back situation, Hurts will have some opportunities to make plays with his legs too.  Expect 3+ touchdowns from the kid in a big debut, with one coming on the ground.

Justin Herbert (vs. LV): My QB1 of this first week, Justin Herbert is poised for an insane season. Las Vegas' secondary isn't a good one and this should be a high scoring affair. After throwing for over 600 yards in two meetings vs. the Raiders in 2021, I expect Herbert to top that total this year. Fire him up as a no doubt boom for week one.

Russell Wilson (@ SEA): Revenge games are always a good set up for a huge game. Throw in a bad Seahawks defense and a talented Broncos offense, and you've got a perfect recipe for a big day for quarterback Russell Wilson. This game won't be a close one, so he may have to do most of his damage before they go run heavy to milk the clock down, but expect coach Nathaniel Hackett to do everything in his power to let Wilson flex on his old squad.

Joe Mixon (vs. PIT): A lot of mixed opinions on Joe Mixon this year. In week one though, we'll take him against the worst run defense from a year ago. Burrow and his dangerous receivers will give the sixth year running back plenty of room to run Sunday afternoon and he'll take advantage. Predicting over 135 total yards and two touchdowns for Mixon to start off his 2022 campaign.

Nick Chubb (@ CAR): I'm really low on Cleveland skill players until Deshaun Watson comes back, but this should be as good an opportunity for Nick Chubb to shine as any. The Panthers aren't great at stopping the run and if the Browns have any shot at winning this game, it'll be by controlling the clock with their star running backs and minimizing what Jacoby Brissett needs to do. 

Chubb should be getting carries early and often, as their defense won't let things get too out of hand. He's a must start given his draft position and presumed volume alone. Good opportunity here for the Browns' RB.

Aaron Jones (vs. MIN): The Packers lost Davante Adams in the offseason and didn't really make a splash of any type to replace him. Facing off against the 7th worst run defense from 2021 should help them ease into the year despite that. Jones should get at least 15 carries and a handful of looks from the slot vs. Minnesota to kick off the season. He's definitely a top ten RB play this week.

Chris Godwin/Mike Evans (@ DAL): Even with Trevon Diggs posting near historic interception numbers last season, the team still struggled mightily at stopping opposing passing attacks. Dallas didn't do much this offseason either to address any of these issues. Despite some concerns with their overall health, if Chris Godwin and Mike Evans play vs. the Cowboys, they're gonna eat. I'm thinking a floor of 6 catches + a touchdown each to start off their 2022 right.

Keenan Allen (vs. LV): Justin Herbert's top target should find all the room he wants versus a soft Vegas secondary this week. After only two games with less than eight targets last year, he should be force fed looks regularly from his QB. I'd be surprised if Allen finishes this game with less than double digit catches.

Treylon Burks (vs. NYG): As the season draws closer, my confidence in Burks has gone up. Ryan Tannehill isn't great by any standard, but he's still thrown for at least 3,700 yards the last two years. Somebody has to rack these up for him and Treylon will this Sunday against a bad Giants secondary. His NFL debut should be a nice one with at least 90 receiving yards and a touchdown.

Mark Andrews (vs. NYJ): The knock on Baltimore all offseason was that their receiving core was a major weakness. Tight end Mark Andrews is far from overlooked, but never seems to factor into that receiving equation the way Travis Kelce does for Kansas City. He should explode against the Jets-- turning a dozen targets into over 100 yards and a score to reward those who drafted him.

Sits

Trey Lance (@ CHI): Disclaimer that I have Lance on two fantasy teams, but I hate this matchup. This defense allowed the sixth fewest yards in 2021 and now have Roquan Smith back in the mix. George Kittle is likely not to play now. And reports of Jimmy G's retention irritating Lance make me question his resilience--earn your job and own it. Barring the San Francisco defense giving him some short fields, which is very possible against a bad Bears offense, I see the 9ers offense sputtering a little out the gate here.

Aaron Rodgers (@ MIN): Minnesota invested heavily this offseason into a defense that was bad a year ago. I don't expect them to be an elite unit by any stretch, but they'll certainly be better. The Packers essentially did the exact opposite at the receiver position for their MVP quarterback. If Rodgers makes it an MVP three-peat, it'll be the most masterful work of his career. Don't count on it happening though. Forecast calls for a rocky, drop-riddled opener for Rodgers in U.S. Bank Stadium.

Saquon Barkley (@ TEN): Death, taxes and preseason fantasy hype surround Saquon Barkley. Just a few ever-reliable things in life. Evan Neal was a great selection for the Giants in this most recent draft, and a solid foundational piece for a perpetually poor offensive line. But he can't do it alone, especially versus a talented front like the Titans have. The 2nd best run defense last year unfortunately lost Harold Landry to an ACL injury this week, but still will be menacing for opposing running games. First disappointment of many here Barkley owners.

Ezekiel Elliott (vs. TB): Coming off of a surprising finish as RB6 last season, Zeke appears to be a focal point of the Cowboys plan again in 2022. After losing Tyron Smith though at left tackle, I think the aging running back is going to have a much tougher go. Throw in Tony Pollard's efficient 5.5 YPC/pass catching ability, and this may be more of a committee then Elliott's fantasy owners care to admit. Against Vita Vea and the third ranked rushing defense week one, I'll pass on the former Buckeye here.

Drake London (vs. NO): A-- fortunately minor-- knee injury caused the rookie from USC to miss some of the preseason, costing him valuable reps with starter Marcus Mariota. This'll likely result in them needing a few games to really start developing a rapport with one another. Going against superstar cornerback Marshon Lattimore in your NFL debut doesn't help matters either. Bold prediction here, but I could see London drawing an 0-fer in this matchup. 

DJ Moore (vs. CLE): Losing Deshaun Watson for 11 games will severely hamper the Browns' ability to compete, but they still have a really strong defensive unit. Top corner Denzel Ward should be shadowing the Panthers' top receiver for most of the game, which'll surely limit the volume he sees. Touchdown dependent play here, which is definitely possible in Baker's attempt at a payback game.

George Kittle (@ CHI): We touched on a lot of this under the "Sit Trey Lance" section. Drawing an elite linebacker in coverage regularly isn't good for any tight end's numbers. Throw in the team's commitment to the running game, and talented alternative options in Deebo Samuel/Brandon Aiyuk, and this could be a tough day at Soldier Field for Kittle. 

Sleepers

Jameis Winston (@ ATL): Famous Jameis, freshly back from an offseason rehabbing a torn ACL. I can only imagine some of the unique drills/exercises he used in that process... He'll be rolling to Atlanta week one versus a criminally underrated secondary, featuring second team All-Pro AJ Terrell and recent addition Casey Hayward. The Falcons are also criminally incapable of getting after the quarterback, which should give Winston's talented receiving core ample time to get open. I'll take the king crab legs with 300 yards and three scores on the side.

Daniel Jones (@ TEN): The Titans defense is almost the polar opposite of Atlanta's above. They'll get after the QB like few other teams can but just get diced in the passing game. If (big if) the G-Men can keep Jones upright, he's got enough talent at receiver to make Tennessee pay through the air. Not a flashy option by any means, but in a pinch Jones is worth a look here. He's good to add at least a couple points with his legs too. 

Zamir White (@ LAC): I'm on record thinking Josh Jacobs will be a bust this fantasy season. Zamir White is my preferred back in Las Vegas after a preseason where he built up a ton of hype. He has three-down potential and is the younger, more explosive player. The Raiders will likely be playing from behind for at least a chunk of this game, which should allow for a strong PPR debut for the rookie from Georgia. 

Kenneth Gainwell (@ DET): The Eagles easily have one of the toughest backfields to get a read on. Even when playing well last year, the team seemed super resistant toward feeding Miles Sanders. Reports from camp seem to be continuing to echo this sentiment, with potential for Gainwell or Boston Scott to substantially cut into his touches. Definitely a low floor/high upside flier here.

Romeo Doubs (@ MIN): Late reports out of Green Bay are that Allen Lazard isn't practicing for undisclosed reasons. Somebody needs to catch passes from A-Rod...and it seems like Doubs is the likeliest benefactor here. Keep an eye on Christian Watson and Sammy Watkins too in deeper, desperate situations, especially if Lazard does end up not playing.

Jalen Tolbert (vs. TB): Carrying along with the theme of rookie hype trains, we have Cowboys receiver Jalen Tolbert. After strong performances in training camp, Tolbert has earned more playing time. With Michael Gallup already being ruled out for this one, that should only boost his snaps. Devin White should limit Dalton Schultz and Ceedee Lamb will be a focal point for the defense, allowing Tolbert some loose coverage opportunities. Dallas could be fighting to keep up much of this game too, providing a positive game script for the rookie.

Cameron Brate (@ DAL): Tom Brady loves his tight ends, and the Bucs didn't really do much to fill Gronk's shoes post-retirement. Enter longtime Tampa tight end Cameron Brate. He's had an up and down career in terms of production, resulting in the team trying to find replacements for him multiple times (OJ Howard bust anyone?). Through it all though, this man stays on the roster. Don't expect 1,000 yards this year for Brate, but he should have some big game opportunities. Lookout for one in Jerry World. 

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@Choppinglines

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