Putting week two behind us, as a Ravens fan and gambler. It was thoroughly as unsatisfying a week as an NFL fan can have, which can only mean one thing: greener pastures ahead.
We're always moving forward here on Chopping Lines and we're gonna bounce back from this test stronger then ever. And it all starts with an enticing slate of week three games. Let's jump in.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns (-4.5) (Thursday 9/22)
The Cleveland Browns led by 13 with 1:13 left on the clock at home versus the New York Jets. They'd had just below 100% chances of victory at that point, pretty much as sure of a win as you could ask for. No such thing with the Brownies however, as they managed to fall 31-30 in one of the most improbable comebacks you'll ever see. Horrendous.
Don't look too deeply into this loss. The Browns dominated much of the game and were well-positioned to start their season out 2-0 before the unthinkable happened. Take away those final 90 seconds and there was a lot of reasons for optimism. Amari Cooper bounced back from a terrible Cleveland debut, possibly a sign of growing chemistry between him and Jacoby Brissett. Nick Chubb was terrific again on the ground too.
They should have no trouble squaring off with a toothless Pittsburgh offense at home Thursday night. The Steelers' offensive line will struggle with a far superior front seven across from them, making it a difficult night to settle in for Najee Harris or Mister Biscuit. Their defense should be able to slow the Brissett and the Browns some, but they simply don't have enough juice with TJ Watt still sidelined.
The under is definitely in play here, especially with both teams on a short week. Give me the Browns to cover in what should be a pretty uninspiring primetime tussle.
Houston Texans at Chicago Bears (-3)
Really starting this list off with some bangers here... Chicago will be hosting the Houston Texans in a week three scrum. This game may have some of the weirder/uglier plays of the week, as both teams feature inexperienced players and QBs with pretty unique and questionable skillsets. The winner may end up having the quarterback who makes the least mistakes.
After Justin Fields' triple option-esque stat line last week (70 yards, 1 INT on 11 attempts), it's really hard to put any eggs in his basket right now. The Bears have shown absolutely no receiving threats, short, intermediate or deep. Luckily, David Montgomery got going on the ground last week and should have a chance to again this Sunday. Nice potential for a big day out of him.
Davis Mills was bad last week in Denver and has a difficult assignment as he tries bounce back and get add a third 1 to the Texans record (currently 0-1-1). Brandin Cooks, Nico Collins and Dameon Pierce all had pretty decent games in Denver, which should be able to translate some over to Soldier Field. It'll be up to Mills at that point to get them the ball in opportunistic spots.
I'm not sure Mills can do that however. And I'm not much more optimistic on the Justin Fields front either. This game's gonna suck, give me Houston to cover and the under.
Las Vegas Raiders (-2) at Tennessee Titans
This feels like a must win for two teams here that had pretty high hopes coming into this season. The Raiders are probably still stinging from their overtime loss to Arizona after blowing a 20 point lead. Tennessee has just looked plain bad through their first two.
Derek Carr should be able to have success finding Davante Adams and Darren Waller against this soft secondary. Keep an eye on if Hunter Renfrow is cleared from concussion protocol, which would give them a third viable weapon. If the offense can play turnover-free ball, there's no reason 24+ points won't be in play for them.
It'd be on the defense at that point to seal the win. Derrick Henry has been bottled up by the Giants and Buffalo but is facing a much less imposing defensive line. If the Titans' can't get the ball rolling in this one, then it'd be a really bad sign. Ryan Tannehill should also have some more opportunities for success as long as his line can keep Chandler Jones and Maxx Crosby off of him. This game projects nicely for Treylon Burks, whose been solid so far through his rookie year.
It's hard to put stock into either of these teams, but give me Vegas gutting out a tough one on the road by a field goal. The over 45.5 is definitely appealing here too with two iffy defenses. 26-23 anyone?
Kansas City Chiefs (-6.5) at Indianapolis Colts
It's incredible how bad Indianapolis has been this season. Take away the fourth quarter against the Texans and they've scored a whopping 3 points in 7 quarters of play + an entire overtime period. Frank Reich's seat has to be hot.
It's going to be scalding after this week, where I see Kansas City marching into Indy and fuckin rolling them. Patrick Mahomes has shown the ability to adjust nicely to life without Tyreek Hill and he should face minimal push back from a Colts defense that just got manhandled by Trevor Lawrence. Their inability to rush the passer will give Mahomes all day to slowly, painfully pick them apart.
Jonathan Taylor has to get more then nine carries in this one for the host Colts to have a chance. Negative game script last week or not, you get your best players the ball, period. The immobile Matt Ryan may be in some trouble as well with Frank Clark and Chris Jones working to get after him in the pocket.
If Michael Pittman Jr. doesn't play, this could be a slaughter rule type of game. Even if he does, the Chiefs should roll, but look for it to be by 21+ if MPJ is out again with a quad injury.
Buffalo Bills (-5.5) at Miami Dolphins
The battle for first place in the AFC east is going down in South Beach. Miami is coming off one of the craziest comeback wins any team could imagine and should be rolling into this one with a ton of momentum. Buffalo should be equally energized after stomping Tennessee Monday night.
Tua should face more pressure then Baltimore was able to get on him, facing an aggressive defensive front featuring Ed Oliver, Von Miller and AJ Epenesa, among others. How he handles the pressure will define how productive of a follow up he can have to his 469 yard, six touchdown showing last week. But expect him to have some success finding his speedy receivers Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle.
None of that may matter though if the Dolphins can't slow Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs. It's not completely unfathomable to assume the QB could keep his current pace for 68 total touchdowns, he's been that good. I anticipate this to be a high scoring affair that could see him tack on at least another four. After seeing what Rashod Bateman did to Xavien Howard last week, Diggs is gonna eat too.
Give me the Bills by ten and the over. Tua is gaining believers, and they'll hang for a lot of this one, but this is a freight train they're running into Sunday.
Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings (-6)
Upset alert! Probably my favorite underdog here, I'm not sure how the Lions are getting six points with how both of these teams looked week two. Obviously the Vikings defense is superior to Washington's, but that shouldn't slow this potent Detroit attack much.
Another week of improved health for D'Andre Swift will help him to set the tone against a front seven that was run all over by Philadelphia on Monday night. And if they can't get pressure on Jared Goff, then it could be a long day for them dealing with the Sun God. Man, this Lions offense is going to be fun whenever Jameson Williams can get on the field.
Kirk Cousins will not have a second consecutive stinker, finding Justin Jefferson early and often against an exploitable Detroit secondary. It'll be worth following to see if he can get any other targets involved, as Adam Thielen, Irv Smith and KJ Osborn have all been pretty quiet through the first two. All of the aforementioned would benefit from a big Dalvin Cook game too.
Give me the scrappy, upstart Lions straight up in this one versus a Minnesota team that might be getting a bit stale already. I'm aware of Kirk Cousins' 19:2 TD:INT ratio versus Detroit, so give me the over too. Big test on the road here for Dan Campbell's squad.
Baltimore Ravens (-3) at New England Patriots
Coming off of one of the worst regular season losses in franchise history, the Ravens travel up to Foxborough for a showdown against the other team Miami's beaten. They come in as slight road favorites and rightfully so with how both teams how looked so far.
Baltimore's offense hasn't been perfect per the eye test, but they're averaging 31 points per game. That alone is a tall order for the Mac Jones-led offense averaging less than half of that. If Lamar Jackson has a big day against this inexperienced defense, it's going to be hard for the Patriots to keep up. And we see it happening the way he's been clicking with Rashod Bateman and Mark Andrews. If JK Dobbins returns this week, it'll help their balance.
Jones was able to connect with Nelson Agholor on a deep bomb in Pittsburgh, something the Ravens gave up a ton of in week two. It'll be interesting to see if Belichick (or whoever calls the plays) dials extra shots to take advantage of this potential weakness in the Baltimore defense. New England will also be hoping to get Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson going on the ground to control the clock and keep Lamar's high octane offense off the field.
There's no way Baltimore loses this game. The Patriots offense has been supremely bland and inexplosive this season and there'll be no way they can keep up with #8. Ravens win and cover on the road here.
Cincinnati Bengals (-5) at New York Jets
An offseason full of smack talk by Burrow/Chase and Company has been followed up with...an 0-2 start with losses to the Steelers and a Dak-less Dallas. Yikes.
While it's not an Indianapolis-level sound the alarm here, this feels like a must win for Cincinnati. 0-3 with losses to Mitch Trubisky, Cooper Rush and Joe Flacco would not be a good look for a team that many considered to be a contender. It all starts with the offensive line--no deep threat can matter if they can't keep Burrow upright. They'll have their hands full though with Quinnen Williams all afternoon, which'll lead to another poor statistical day for Joe Mixon.
Joe Flacco and the Jets offense looked much more competent playing in the nice weather rather then their week one monsoon. Rookies Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall were very encouraging on an offense that isn't lacking in fire power. And this is a defense with some holes they can have some success against.
There's no way Cincy loses this game. I'm still scarred from last week so I probably won't touch it on many slips, but they're simply the better team in this one. Bengals dub but I'm far less confident in a cover.
Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5) at Washington Commanders
This one should be one of the more entertaining week three affairs. Jalen Hurts and the red-hot Eagles are riding down I-95 to square off with their division rival Commanders.
Outside of Buffalo, it's hard to say a team has looked better then Philadelphia so far this season. Hurts has had minimal issues finding AJ Brown and Dallas Goedert, and even less trouble doing the job on the ground himself. The issues won't be starting this week against a very bad Washington defense. It makes no sense how much they're underperformed given the high end talent they have, on the defensive line at least. Jack Del Rio's best days are far, far behind him.
Carson Wentz should be motivated though against the first team that casted him off. It's not always been pretty, but they have managed to put up 28 and 27 points in his first two games with the Commanders. Maybe he wasn't the problem in Indianapolis?
Terry McLaurin, Jahan Dotson and the emerging Curtis Samuel will have tough matchups versus Darius Slay and James Bradberry, but we know their quarterback isn't averse to taking shots to find them for big plays. A few will end up in the hands of Philly on Sunday, but Washington's gonna get theirs on the offensive side of the ball.
This is a tasty over here at 47 currently. I also think the Eagles win and cover late, most likely facilitated by a Wentz mistake.
New Orleans Saints (-3) at Carolina Panthers
I'll acknowledge his back injury, but I'm beginning to think that Jameis just may be who he is at this point. A fun, physically-talented quarterback whose just too impatient and inconsistent through a full schedule. Miles better then Taysom Hill or Trevor Siemian, but probably not going to be taking New Orleans to the promise land.
It'll help if they're able to get Alvin Kamara back this week; they're facing a defense here they should be able to run against. That'll help open up the passing game for their great receivers to get some work in. Which also opens the door for a boneheaded play or two from Winston.
The Panthers have been competitive in each of their first two games, but they haven't been able to put together a closing act on either side of the ball. This is their week to do it. I think they'll put forth a very deliberate effort to get McCaffery the ball in space and should be able to play good enough defense to keep it close late. You heard it hear first, Matt Rhule won't be winless when he's fired later in the year thanks to this week three home win.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Los Angeles Chargers (-7)
The biggest storyline in this one is the health of Justin Herbert. He took some massive hits late in the Kansas City game that ultimately fractured some rib cartilage. It's a more optimistic diagnosis then damaged ribs themselves, but it will make doing his job on Sunday afternoon challenging.
Whoever is under center for LA will likely have Keenan Allen back in the fold. He did some individual drills yesterday, stirring optimism that he'll be available. He and Mike Williams each have potential to pop against this secondary if their quarterback play can be competent. Will Austin Ekeler be so fortunate on the ground? The Jags held Jonathan Taylor to just nine carries a week ago, but he averaged six yards on each of them.
Trevor Lawrence looks to follow up on a strong performance that saw him only have three more incompletions then touchdowns. The Chargers present a much more challenging foe however. The Jaguars would be wise to continue leaning on their running game to help alleviate the pressure and load on their second year QB's shoulder. James Robinson has been excellent this season and should be a workhorse again in Los Angeles.
Really tough game to call here until we know for sure that Justin Herbert will play. Even if he does, he looked very labored throwing the ball post-injury in their comeback bid. I can't imagine he's healed up that much yet, so let's take Jacksonville covering at least.
Los Angeles Rams (-3.5) at Arizona Cardinals
The Rams can't feel great about how last weeks battle with Atlanta finished up. Turnovers are mounting with this offense and it's given teams life in their first two. We also saw last week what a short man like Kyler Murray can do with any sliver of life in a game.
Cooper Kupp should have a field day against this Arizona secondary, which is only a partial insult to their quality. Stafford will have to continue finding Higbee and Robinson in the passing game to limit just how much the Cards can focus in on Kupp. Shouldn't be asking too too much. We'll see if Cam Akers or Darrell Henderson Jr. show up to help with it.
The Cardinals have started slow in both of their games this season, and for all intents and purposes should be 0-2. But great quarterbacks find ways to win games they're not supposed to, and Kyler did that versus Vegas. They need to keep this game close throughout or this defensive unit could be too much to overcome late again. James Conner isn't 100% though, plus their receiving core is pretty suspect with Nuk still suspended. Over/under 1.5 dropped passes by Hollywood?
With it being early in the year and both of these teams showing a knack for stupid mistakes, I'll actually think the home dog Cardinals get it done.
Atlanta Falcons at Seattle Seahawks (-2)
Legitimately surprising that Seattle is favored here as they host the Atlanta Falcons. Neither of these teams are going to strike fear into opponents, but the dirty birds have looked more competitive top to bottom.
Marcus Mariota and Drake London have shown a sharp connection early, contrary to what I expected, and they should flourish again here in the Pacific Northwest. Cordarelle Patterson will pick up where he's left off in the running game and I have a suspicion that this is going to be a big Kyle Pitts game. Arthur Smith has to be tired of answering questions about his offensive output.
Geno came back to Earth in San Francisco and he won't have a much easier matchup here against AJ Terrell and Casey Hayward. The lack of passing threat will help the Falcons load the box to shut down Rashaad Penny and Kenneth Walker for a consecutive week. Not a good time to be a Seahawks fan.
Atlanta wins on the road to get their first victory of the 22-23 year, doing so fairly handily at that.
Green Bay Packers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1.5)
The headlines will read all about Brady and Rodgers but the real showdown in this one is between two top notch defenses. The Bucs have given up one touchdown in two games, and while Green Bay hasn't been quite as good yet in practice, they've got just as much talent on paper. So what's going to give?
Mike Evans got himself suspended for his altercation with Marshon Lattimore, leaving the Bucs dangerously thin at receiver. With Chris Godwin and Julio Jones likely to be out as well, the team had to sign Cole Beasley as depth. Difficult spot to be in. Leonard Fournette will be the one paying the price for this, running into loaded boxes all afternoon as Green Bay lets Eric Stokes and Jaire Alexander handle the wideouts.
Aaron Rodgers will be in a similar, weaponless boat as Brady. Unfortunately for him, that's how his whole year is going to be, barring a splash trade by Green Bay. They need the offensive line to be big on Sunday to give Jones and Dillon room to run and time for their QB to capitalize on the few passing windows he'll get.
Rodgers is going to get it done in this low scoring battle down in Tampa Bay. Hit the under too while you're at it. A lot of star power names between these two teams, but it'll be ugly on the field.
San Francisco 49ers (-1.5) at Denver Broncos
Jimmy G time for San Fran! Trey Lance suffered a gruesome ankle injury in their home victory over Seattle, opening the door for Garrapolo to retake his former starting post. What a fortunate insurance policy to have held onto.
Looking at the rosters, this matchup appears close. But Russell Wilson has been thoroughly unspectacular for Denver so far. With Jerry Jeudy set to be less then 100% or out, he'll be thinner on weapons then usual too. Going against a solid defense with a very disruptive front seven, and his prospects of a turnaround game look skimpy.
Love the Niners on the road Sunday night. Better coaching, better quarterback play, better team in general. Really discouraging start to Nathaniel Hackett's head coaching tenure.
Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants (-2) (Monday 9/26)
I'm not sure this game ever looked "prime", so not sure what schedule makers were trying to do other then appeal to some big markets. But here we go Giants-Cowboys Monday night!
Cooper Rush led a shocking upset over Cincinnati last week and he'll be hoping to bring that same magic to the Meadowlands. He found Noah Brown and Ceedee Lamb whenever they needed a big play and really earned the win. It was an effective strategy that should have some success against the Giants' underrated defense.
That defense is allowing just 18.5 PPG through two games and should pose some problems for the Boys. It'll be up to Daniel Jones and Saquon Barkley to play clean, efficient football on their offensive end. As wholly underwhelming as Jones' stat lines have been, he hasn't really hurt New York at any point. That's been the difference for them on the way to a 2-0 start with a +3 point differential.
It'll be the difference again on Monday night as the G-Men roll out as improbable a 3-0 start as you could as for. Props to Brian Daboll for a job well done thus far.
------
@Choppinglines
*This is not gambling advice, just our opinions. Consider at your own risk
*I own no rights to any images found in this blog
Comments
Post a Comment