NFL Week One Preview
Buffalo Bills (-2.5) at Los Angeles Rams (Thursday 9/8)
Our kickoff to the 2022-2023 season and it's a doozy, with Buffalo, the current Super Bowl favorites, squaring off versus the defending champion Rams. On what should be a prime night in LA, we have two high powered offenses and defenses welcoming us back to another NFL season.
One big question mark going into this game is the health of Matthew Stafford's elbow. Despite claiming that all was well and he was on track for the season two weeks ago (ESPN), it's certainly at least a development worth keeping an eye on as we ease into the new year. If the big armed Georgia alum starts coming up short on some of the deep throws he's known for, expect for speculation to quickly begin.
It will be fun to see how fast of a start Cooper Kupp can get off to. After posting an insane 145/1,947/16 receiving line in 2021, one has to expect some regression here, right? He'll be joined by free agent signing Allen Robinson in trying to break through a Buffalo secondary that will be missing elite cornerback Tre'Davious White until at least week five.
MVP favorite Josh Allen will be leading the Bills offense versus the big name Rams defense. Aaron Donald, Jalen Ramsey and Leonard Floyd return for the unit that was really pretty run of the mill for most of last season. Signing middle linebacker Bobby Wagner from rival Seattle should help, but this defense does have holes.
Allen should be able exploit these, as he's done so many times already in his brief career. They have a diverse receiving core who will be able to create some favorable matchups versus anyone not named Jalen Ramsey. With rookie running back James Cook in the mix now, it's possible that Buffalo even can manage some balance on offense. This should be an explosive showdown to start off the new year, well done scheduling committee. Bills win and cover to spoil LA's Lombardi celebration.
New Orleans Saints (-5.5) at Atlanta Falcons
The Saints kick off their 2022 seasons with a divisional tilt in Atlanta. It'll be the first time these teams have met without Matt Ryan under center since December of 2009 (a rare Chris Redman sighting). The Falcons will be trotting out journeyman Marcus Mariota, signed this March after a year in Las Vegas. It'll be his first starting opportunity since 2019, and presumably his last.
In one of the weirder offseason stories, Atlanta's star receiver Calvin Ridley was suspended for the entire 2022 season after placing bets on NFL games. This suspension left the team desperately thin at receiver, forcing them to use their first round pick on wideout Drake London from USC. Unfortunately, he suffered a knee injury week 1 of the preseason which cost him valuable reps in camp.
Assuming he plays, the Falcons are still incredibly shorthanded on the offensive side of the ball versus 2021's fourth ranked scoring defense. With former #1 pick Jameis Winston back at quarterback, the Saints are poised to be a handful on offense as well. He'll be working with weapons like Michael Thomas, Alvin Kamara, Jarvis Landry and rookie first rounder Chris Olave to put up points in bunches down in NOLA. The Saints should roll in this one.
San Francisco 49ers (-7) at Chicago Bears
You heard it here first, this is a big time trap game for the 9ers here. Nobody, myself included, thinks very highly of Chicago, but it's never easy to win in Soldier Field. Now that Roquan Smith is back in the fold at middle linebacker, this Bears team should at least have a formidable defense. I foresee them giving San Fran's new starting quarterback Trey Lance plenty of issues here.
The 49ers should be able to wreak similar havoc on sophomore starter Justin Fields. With a bleak supporting cast of skill players, the Bears won't be intimidating any defenses that can contain their athletic quarterback. Expect this game to be a knockdown, drag um out type of game where the team that makes the least mistakes will pull it out. I'll take the home dogs here at +7, but San Francisco wins.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals (-6.5)
Another team with a new face at quarterback-- this'll be the first time since 2003 that the Pittsburgh Steelers haven't had Ben Roethlisberger on their roster. Mitchell Trubisky seems to have won the quarterback competition that featured rookie Kenny Pickett and surprising competitor Mason Rudolph. He'll be tasked with leading an offense that has no shortage of talent, with Diontae Johnson, Chase Claypool and rookie breakout candidate George Pickens at wideout. Najee Harris was poised for a breakout year also, but I have some reservations with the recent news of his lingering Lisfranc injury.
The reigning AFC champion Bengals look to piggyback on last season's success. With Joe Shiesty under center and arguably the best receiving core in the league, Cincy will be in games as long as there's time on the clock. This defense overachieved late last season, sparking the playoff run, so anticipate some regression to the mean there.
This is a dangerous Cincinnati team in most facets of the game. If their defensive unit complements their explosive offense again, this team will be back in the title hunt again come January. Tough game to call here though, as with any divisional clash. If TJ Watt and Diontae Johnson are able to play near 100%, I could see Pittsburgh losing but covering. If Watt doesn't play though, look out.
Philadelphia Eagles (-4) at Detroit Lions
Another potential trap game here featuring the hyped Philadelphia Eagles and the perpetually losing Lions. This Detroit team feels a bit different though then in past seasons, with firecracker Dan Campbell in year two at head coach and an infusion of talent with #1 pick Aiden Hutchinson and fellow first rounder Jameson Williams, who'll return at some point. Coming off of Hard Knocks, it's hard to deny they've got some swag coming into this season.
The Eagles will pose a tough test for the Lions in week one with their dynamic offense, led by dual threat Jalen Hurts. Wide receiver AJ Brown, who they traded a first round pick for during the draft, will team up with Devonta Smith and Dallas Goedert to create a versatile group of pass catchers. They should be able to give a weak Detroit secondary some trouble.
Philly also signed cornerback James Bradberry this offseason to work opposite of Darius Slay. It may be the best group of corners the team has had in recent memory, at least on paper. We'll see how they do covering the emerging Amon-Ra St. Brown and DJ Chark. With Jared Goff at the helm in the Motor City, you never know quite what you'll get in terms of quarterback play.
Regardless of the receiving stats put up, the talent alone should help D'Andre Swift maneuver through running lanes behind a young and talented offensive line. If Detroit can control the trenches and clock, it'll keep Philly's weapons off the field and boost their chances of winning. I see a late field goal bringing the Lions to 1-0.
New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins (-2.5)
Down to South Beach we go for a showdown between Bill Belichick's Patriots and the Dolphins. Miami will be eager to show off their newest weapon Tyreek Hill, acquired from Kansas City in April. He's spoken very highly of Tua thus far; we'll be keeping an eye on how long he's feeling that way. But he and Jaylen Waddle are a strong tandem and New England has big questions at cornerback right now. There's no reason the Dolphins shouldn't move the ball through the air.
The Patriots added Devante Parker, the man Tyreek Hill replaced at receiver, to their receiving room in April also. He'll join Jakobi Meyers and Kendrick Bourne as the guys helping second year QB Mac Jones down the field. It's a solid, yet unspectacular group overall. I don't see them getting it done vs. Xavien Howard, Jevon Holland and a tough Dolphins secondary. Give me Miami and the cover in Hill's first game with the Fins.
Baltimore Ravens (-7) at New York Jets
Showtime for Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens. Easily the most banged up team a year ago, the Ravens are as near full health as a team could ask for going into the season. The offense should be efficient but frustrating at times, with heavy doses of Mark Andrews and Rashod Bateman. They should have minimal trouble with the Jets defensive unit, even with positive reports surrounding rookie Sauce Gardner.
Zach Wilson's preseason knee injury will have him on the sideline for week one, leaving the Jets to trot out Baltimore's former Super Bowl MVP Joe Flacco. As a lifelong Ravens fan, it's possible this the best arsenal of receivers he's ever had to work with. Headlined by Elijah Moore, the group goes five deep with versatile skillsets that should be able to give defenses fits. Breece Hall and Michael Carter are a strong duo in the backfield too.
The Jets are really under the radar when considering how much talent they have in some areas. I don't think Flacco is going to be able to consistently challenge a tough Ravens defense to keep up with their high offensive output. I love the over in this game (45.5) and think the Ravens cover in the process.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Washington Commanders (-3.5)
Maybe the least enticing matchup of week one is going down in Landover, Maryland where the Washington Football Team Commanders will be challenging last year's #1 pick Trevor Lawrence and his Jacksonville Jaguars. Lawrence will be joined by running backs James Robinson and Travis Etienne, as well as free agent additions Christian Kirk and Evan Engram. It's not an inspiring offense at the moment, unless the sophomore quarterback can really elevate those around him.
The Commanders have a little more name power, especially on the defensive line. After underachieving as a unit last season, Daron Payne, Jonathan Allen and Montez Sweat should be more than motivated to turn things around-- even with Chase Young starting the season on IR. Their ceiling as a unit is as high as any in the league.
The offense doesn't quite have that buzz with recently acquired quarterback Carson Wentz at the helm. While undoubtedly an upgrade over Taylor Heinicke, I have doubts how much better this team will be with him. For week one though, I'll give the former Football Team the win and cover until Trevor Lawrence shows me a reason to think otherwise.
Cleveland Browns at Carolina Panthers (-1.5)
The revenge game: Baker Mayfield showing down with the team that cast him off right out of the gate. It's like the NFL writes this shit... The high upside Panthers offense won't be an easy stop for a strong Cleveland defense, unless Baker falls short of course. Very possible.
Jacoby Brissett and the Browns hope to be able to move the ball versus a less than imposing Carolina D. Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt should have running lanes on Sunday, which will help a less than stellar passing attack. I don't think this Cleveland offense will be very explosive through the air and defenses will pack boxes sooner than later versus them. Not gonna be a ton of scoring here though, the home town Panthers should get the W and cover.
Indianapolis Colts (-8) at Houston Texans
The Matt Ryan era in Indianapolis is underway, and he gets division rival Houston to kick things off. Derek Stingley was a nice addition in the draft for the Texans, but he won't be enough to slow this Colts offense through the air. Throw in returning Offensive Player of the Year Jonathan Taylor in the backfield and it's easy to be excited as an Indy fan.
Their defense, led by Shaquille Leonard and Stephon Gilmore, should give the Texans fits. Dameon Pierce will get ample opportunity to establish himself in week one and beyond, but this is a tough way to break in your NFL career. I'm curious to see what Davis Mills can do in his second season at QB, Brandin Cooks will definitely be force fed. Tough week for the offense though.
8 points is a hefty cover on the road, especially in a divisional game versus a scrappy team like Houston. Even with the optimism around Matty Ice, this is still his first game with an entirely new team. Colts win, but don't cover. The over definitely warrants a look too.
New York Giants at Tennessee Titans (-6)
To Nashville we go for a battle between the Titans and the New York Football Giants. Danny Dimes vs. King Henry, in another dud of a matchup this Sunday. Jones should have a better showing at quarterback with an improved offensive line and his weapons back and healthy. This will be a good test for him going against a defense that allowed the 8th most passing yards in 2021.
Giants first round edge rusher Kayvon Thibodeaux will not make his debut after suffering a sprained MCL in their second preseason game. That will make life easier for Ryan Tannehill as he tries to gel with new teammates Treylon Burks, Robert Woods and Austin Hooper. Even if he can't, Derrick Henry should move the ball just fine on the ground.
The closer this game gets, the more I like the Giants...but I think Tennessee finds a way to grit out an ugly win in their home opener. I don't think they cover in the process.
Green Bay Packers (-2) at Minnesota Vikings
Game one of the post-Davante Adams era for Green Bay takes place in Minneapolis. The Vikings look revamped on the defensive side of the ball after signing corner Patrick Peterson, OLB Za'Darius Smith and drafting safety Cine Lewis and CB Andrew Booth with their top two picks in the draft. This unit will not give up the 5th most yards through the air again this year.
Offensively, they'll go as far as Kirk Cousins takes them. With Dalvin Cook in the backfield and star Justin Jefferson at receiver (among other talented pieces), there isn't any excuse to not have this be a top ten scoring team. If Kevin O'Donnell can help Kirk overcome his usual ceiling of mediocrity, then this team will be a problem in the playoffs.
The Immunized One will lead a young and relatively inexperienced group of receivers into the season. It will be worth tracking which rookies are able to show rapport with Rodgers--whether it be Romeo Doubs/Christian Watson/someone else-- as there are a ton of vacant targets from the Adams departure. Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon will be seen regularly in this one.
Both of these teams defenses are stout, which has me feeling the under on 48.5 is a prudent play. Give me the home dog Vikings too, coming out strong in pursuit of their first NFC North title since 2017.
Kansas City Chiefs (-3) at Arizona Cardinals
Two young firecrackers squaring off at QB in this one, with a classic Murray-Mahomes showdown. Kyler will be without top target Deandre Hopkins, beginning his six game PED suspension, which will surely limit the offense some here. Anticipate Hollywood getting peppered with targets and likely dropping at least one of them. I don't see James Conner adding much dynamically on the ground either, fresh off 2021's 3.7 YPC
The Chiefs shipped away Tyreek Hill this offseason and attempted to replace him with Juju Smith-Schuster, Marques Valdes-Scantling and rookie Skyy Moore. Luckily for them, Mahomes can throw anyone open and they still have Travis Kelce set for another huge season at tight end. It'll be interesting to see how Isaiah Simmons and the Cardinals' safeties handle that assignment.
Ultimately, this KC offense will be too much for the Cards, who'll sputter without Nuk split out wide. I like the Chiefs to cover and the under in this game as I anticipate some growing pains and miscommunication between each quarterback and their new receivers.
Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers (-3.5)
The LA Chargers, my pick to win Super Bowl 57, open their 2022 campaign versus the Raiders of Las Vegas. Justin Herbert and his dangerous skill players should have minimal issue moving the ball on the ground or through the air against this Vegas defense. There should be some huge offensive statistics put up by multiple Chargers.
It'll be up to Derek Carr to keep up with LA's high powered attack. With Davante Adams joining a mix of Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow, he'll have bountiful targets. But the Chargers have a loaded defense on all levels which should give Carr trouble at some point or another. With Herbert and the offense keeping the pressure on, it's on a matter of time until they force a mistake.
That'll be the difference in this one. Chargers starting out the year 1-0 in a high scoring affair that cashes the over.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1.5) at Dallas Cowboys
The premier Sunday night showdown features the timeless Tom Brady visiting Jerry World. The Bucs have a ton of question marks at receiver with Mike Evans returning from a training camp hamstring injury and Chris Godwin coming back from an ACL tear last December. Reports are that both will be ready to go, but there's some skepticism on how close to 100% each will be.
Dallas' offense has some concerns of their own now with starting left tackle Tyron Smith out for an extended period of time with a hamstring tear. This was a huge loss for an offensive line that was already deteriorating. The Cowboys will be attempting to replace him with 38 year old Jason Peters, which seems like a stop gap at best. I thought this Cowboys offense was set to regress some and this could really magnify that.
I originally liked Dallas outright in this one, but I think Shaq Barrett, Vita Vea and the Bucs defense front is going to be too sharp versus a banged up offensive line. Bucs win and cover on the road; take the here under too.
Denver Broncos (-5.5) at Seattle Seahawks (Monday 9/12)
Week one's Monday night battle is another revenge game, this time for quarterback Russell Wilson against the city he called home for the last decade. Denver will be rolling into Seattle for the Monday night affair as pretty heavy favorites, and rightfully so. They're a strong team at virtually every position and now have a QB with a track record of success leading the way.
The Seahawks have some talented skill players of their own with DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett and Rashaad Penny on the offensive side of the ball. Barring a miraculous turnaround though, the unit will be severely handicapped by Geno Smith under center. There may be some fantasy value for these guys, but it is more of a zero-floor situation then many would care to trust.
The Broncos should absolutely roll in this one. Russ should be motivated to show Seattle what they traded away, and has more than a competent enough supporting cast to get it done. Denver should win this one by 2+ scores.
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@Choppinglines
*This is not gambling advice, just our opinions. Consider at your own risk
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