Into week four of the NFL season we go! It's been an up and down year for pretty much every team not from Miami or Philadelphia, but it feels like some more certainty is on the horizon. The good teams have generally impressed and the bad teams have generally found ways to lose, but there is plenty of gray area in there.
We won't have all the answers this week, but it won't be for lack of effort. Let's take a dive into the matchups we'll have on deck.
Miami Dolphins at Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5) (Thursday 9/29)
The defending AFC champions hosting the only current undefeated AFC team this Thursday night. This game probably wasn't circled on many NFL fans' calendars back in August, but the table is now set for this to be a fun back-and-forth.
Tua Tagavailoa appears to be healthy and ready to roll on a short week into Cincinnati. He'll be going up against a secondary that he should be able to take advantage of with his elite receivers. The Fins should be able to make Cincy pay for any miscommunications on the back end.
The Bengals are just as dangerous on offense though, meaning Miami will need to be disciplined on defense like they were against Buffalo last Sunday. Their front seven will have some opportunities to run through the offensive line and hit Burrow all afternoon. If they're able to do so, it'll slow down this potentially high powered offense. If not, it'll be up to Tua to keep up.
Dolphins cover on the road in primetime, I'm not totally sold on the Bengals yet.
Minnesota Vikings (-2.5) at New Orleans Saints
Jameis Winston will be marching his Saints into London after a bad loss in Carolina. It doesn't get easier this week going up against the Vikings.
The turnovers need to stop and Alvin Kamara needs touches in order to get this offense in motion. It doesn't matter how good the receivers have been when their best player is only averaging 13.5 touches in games he's played and the team has a -6 turnover differential. Fixing these two areas will help the defense by giving them more rest and longer fields to protect.
Minnesota is a pretty loaded team though, on both sides of the ball. They should have no trouble setting the tone offensively against the Saints, even with Dalvin Cook at less then 100%. Justin Jefferson has had two consecutive rough games and is primed for a breakout. It won't be easy against Marshon Lattimore, but it is coming at some point soon.
Take Minnesota here. Kirk Cousins loves to play against mediocre teams during the day and this New Orleans squad should give him some shorter fields to drive. Few things better then the 9:30 AM NFL game to kick off the slate.
Cleveland Browns (-1.5) at Atlanta Falcons
One of the more interesting matchups of the week is happening in Atlanta where the Browns and Falcons will go to war. Cleveland is coming off a Thursday night game, so they'll be a little more rested then their counterparts who are coming home from Seattle.
Jacoby Brissett has clicked with Amari Cooper these last two games which has helped Cleveland drive with more regularity. It's also opened larger running lanes for Nick Chubb, who's been a touchdown machine on the ground. The Falcons have a scrappy defense, but they don't get after the quarterback well. If they can't pressure Brissett, it could be a tough day for them.
The Browns will have their hands full with opposing running back Cordarelle Patterson, who's averaging just over 100 yards per game. If they can slow him and force Mariota to beat them through the air, it'll be a recipe for success for their defense. If the Falcons can achieve good balance though then this one should be close.
I feel like Atlanta finds a way to cover yet lose here-- a very Falcons-like thing for them to do. Maybe a late Cade York field goal? Or maybe even an outright upset for the home dogs. That's where my head's at as of now anyway.
Washington Commanders at Dallas Cowboys (-2.5)
This game reeks of a Micah Parsons breakout to me. Carson Wentz took an absolute beating from an Eagles front seven that's really good, but not Micah Parsons good. I think he'll get after the Washington QB early and often, really disrupting them from developing any rhythm on offense. It was an extremely effective strategy by Philadelphia that Dallas should be able to replicate.
Cooper Rush and the 'Boys offense should be able to have some success against a middling Commanders D. Tony Pollard seems to be the hotter hand in the backfield at the moment, but Zeke is going to get his. I have a hard time seeing DC checking Ceedee Lamb too, especially if Dalton Schultz and Michael Gallup reenter the picture.
The Cowboys dismantled Washington twice last season, outscoring them 83-34 in two matchups. I don't expect a major blowout here, but I'll take Dallas to cover at home.
Seattle Seahawks at Detroit Lions (-5.5)
Geno and the Seahawks travel to the Motor City this Sunday for a showdown vs. Dan Campbell's Lions. Going up against a bad secondary, he should be able to find DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett fairly regularly. The confidence boost could also set him up for critical mistakes that he's been known to make through his career, possibly an Aiden Hutchinson strip sack?
Jared Goff and the Lions offense should have a similarly easy time moving the ball up and down the field against a poor Seahawks defense. Even with D'Andre Swift set to miss some time, this unit still has plenty of firepower. If they can establish some balance on offense and Jared Goff can play a clean game, they shouldn't struggle much at home.
I'll take the Lions covering and probably the over while I'm at it. Two bad defenses trying to contain some pretty formidable weapons? Gimme the points.
Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts (-3.5)
These two AFC South stalwarts got their first wins of the year last week. Tennessee managed to ride Derrick Henry to pay dirt through the first half, then hold on tight through the second as Las Vegas tried to get back into it. Their offense is clearly most effective when the King gets going. Ryan Tannehill is a year older, slower, badder. All the above. And despite Treylon Burks' upside, he's not AJ Brown on the outside (yet anyway). If the Titans want to win this one, they need to establish the run.
Indianapolis' run defense would greatly benefit from Shaquille Leonard returning. He was close to coming back for the recent Chiefs game, so it seems likelier then not that we'll see him Sunday.
It won't matter much though if the Colts can't get the offense going. Matt Ryan looks so labored moving through the pocket that you almost feel bad for him. Even with top wideouts Michael Pittman Jr. and Alec Pierce back in the mix, they struggled to move the ball a week ago. This isn't a good Tennessee defense however, maybe a get right game for Indy?
Personally, I don't see it happening. I think Tennessee manages to control the time of possession and quietly dominates en route to a divisional victory.
Chicago Bears at New York Giants (-3.5)
Disclaimer: I can confidently say this game will suck. It's completely in the realm of possibility for there to be less then 300 total passing yards in the this one. Baffling that tickets are, "going for as low as $73." What a grotesque waste of money and time.
Justin Fields will lead the charge under center for Chicago-- a sentence that felt sarcastic to type. It's likely that David Montgomery will be sidelined for this one with a knee/ankle injury, opening the door for another huge performance by Khalil Herbert. The Bears will need it to win against an underrated Giants defense that won't be afraid of getting beat over the top.
Fortunately for Bears fans, they won't have to worry about much deep either. Daniel Jones is averaging just over 6 YPA, dinking and dunking his way to a pitiful 186.6 YPG and an improbable 2-1 record. Saquon should be able to get going though against this windy city defense that's allowed the third most rushing yards in the league so far.
A steady run game by the G-Men should be enough here to get the dub. I'm not 100% confident they cover and would actually take the adjusted line on Chicago as a betting man. But at the end of the day, they'll be the slightly better team. Insane that one of these teams will enter week five 3-1 overall.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5)
One of the marquee matchups from the one o'clock slate is going down in the City of Brotherly Love, where two early MVP candidates Trevor Lawrence and Jalen Hurts meet for the first time professionally.
The Eagles are the toast of the NFL currently, cruising to a 3-0 start and generally looking relaxed in the process. Hurts has been lights out, racking up 1,083 total yards, seven scores and just one turnover. They've been able to revamp the rushing game as a result, opening up great matchups on the outside for Devonta Smith and AJ Brown. When it's all clicking, they look impossible to stop.
It'll be a tall task that Jacksonville must feel they're prepared for after smacking the Chargers in LA last week. Lawrence has been reborn under Doug Pederson, passing for a 6:1 TD:INT ratio and the 7th best QBR in the league. Imagine if every franchise could be fixed up so quickly simply by firing Urban Meyer. What a loser.
James Robinson has been incredible this season, especially when one considers he tore his Achilles just nine months ago. He'll be an X-factor in this game that should feature a ton of rain thanks to Hurricane Ian rolling up the east coast. I think the Jaguars will use him to pace the game and keep it close throughout.
I'm not calling for the outright upset here, but methinks Jacksonville keeps this one closer then seven.
New York Jets at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5)
Well, Zach Wilson will be back for this one, so that's at least something to tune in for. Pittsburgh's offense looks really terrible and their defense isn't exactly great either with TJ Watt out. The Jets don't really look great in any facet of the game, outside of maybe at receiver. A ton of question marks on how Wilson will gel with those guys, if at all.
Not a cake walk of a 2022 debut for the second year man out of BYU. But I think I like the Jets here to be explosive enough on offense to pull off the upset in Acrisure Stadium, formerly Heinz Field*
Buffalo Bills (-3.5) at Baltimore Ravens
This game is the reason the Philly/Jaguars game isn't the marquee one o'clock matchup. It should be a wet one in Baltimore as two of the AFC juggernauts square up. The Bills just dropped a tough game in Miami, showing some imperfections with their inability to balance the offense. The passing game and therefore scoring was severely stifled as a result.
The Ravens are banged up on defense and not playing as well as the Dolphins. But torrential rain actually helps them here as it'll be difficult for Josh Allen and the Bills to move the ball through the air. If any receivers have big days in this one, most of the work will probably be done after the catch.
Lamar Jackson has never lost as a home underdog and the Bills secondary is far from 100%. Another week of preparation for JK Dobbins will pair well with Lamar's own rushing ability against the Bills front seven. If they can dominate clock and keep it out of Josh Allen's hands, I think the Ravens not only cover, but get their third win of the season.
Los Angeles Chargers (-5.5) at Houston Texans
Maybe the toughest game of the weekend to bet here. With so much uncertainty surrounding Justin Herbert's ribs, plus his performance last week, it's hard to feel confident in this offense. I almost would feel better about having Chase Daniel under center. But we'll see how Herbert and Brandon Staley end up handling (or botching) the situation.
Keenan Allen should be back, which will help the Chargers move the ball through the air, but they'll be feeling the Rashawn Slater season-ending injury sooner then later here. That won't make things any easier for running back Austin Ekeler, who's had a very tepid start to the season on the ground.
Davis Mills should struggle against this talented, albeit underperforming defense. JC Jackson will return to square off with WR Brandin Cooks, which should help make up for the pressures they'll be missing from Joey Bosa's recent injury. It's hard to get excited about either team here in their current states.
Regardless of who is under center for LA, an efficient showing and good D should be enough to get them the win here. Give me the Chargers to win here, but wouldn't be shocked to see Houston pull off a back door cover late.
Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers (-2.5)
"Goin' to Kylerlina in my mind." Arizona travels East for a showdown vs. Baker Mayfield and the 1-2 Panthers. The Cardinals offense has looked bad outside of their crazy comeback in Las Vegas. They'll want to get it going early to set the tone on the road against a solid Carolina defense.
The Panthers offense hasn't looked much better through three weeks, averaging the third lowest yards per game total. Baker Mayfield has looked timid and incompetent at QB, Christian McCaffery hasn't had much room to run and DJ Moore has 88 total receiving yards. What a predictable mess for Matt Rhule down in Charlotte.
This'll be an ugly game. Weird 4:05 start for a Carolina game too. Arizona is a hungry dog here and they do just (barely) enough to pull out the road win.
New England Patriots at Green Bay Packers (-10.5)
Brian Hoyer is back! Bill Belichick wouldn't confirm that Mac Jones will be out Sunday, but it seems like as sure of a thing as any. Therefore, NFL fans will be subject to viewing the 36 year old journeyman under center for the Pats. Definitely thought he was older then that.
Aaron Rodgers and the Packers are rightfully massive favorites this matchup at Lambeau. Even with their own questions on offense, the Pack will be able to move the ball enough against this New England defense. They also boast a strong defensive unit of their own, which will likely force a few mistakes by the Patriots.
Green Bay should roll in a statement game for the defense. There's just no universe I see Brian Hoyer keeping up with the Immunized One in 2022.
Denver Broncos at Las Vegas Raiders (-2.5)
Two massively underwhelming teams squaring off in the City of Sin. Difference is one of these teams is 2-1 and the other is 0-3. And oddly enough, the winless team is favored to win.
Dangeruss and the Broncos are riding into town on a two game win streak over Houston and San Francisco. They'd really welcome some improved quarterback play from Wilson, who's looked flat out bad in his first three games. It's an ominous start given the astronomical five year extension he signed before ever taking a snap with the team. Winning cures all, but there's no way Denver can be satisfied with this 2-1 start.
They're ahead of the Raiders though, who've managed to blow opportunities in each of their games. Josh McDaniels has really failed to instill confidence in his head coaching ability, who saw that coming?? Derek Carr hasn't been good, they've managed to work Davante Adams out of more game plans then into them. It's a mess in Vegas, a senseless mess.
Needless to say they'll win Sunday to save their season. Denver's offense has enough issues of their own to allow the sloppy Raiders to hang around and pull out the dub late.
Kansas City Chiefs (-2.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
How happy do we think Tom Brady will be to see Mike Evans split out wide this week? Coming off a game where he had to pepper Russell Gage for 13 targets, the Tampa QB will surely welcome some of his quality pass catchers back into the fold.
They'll need all the help they can get going against Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs. While this Kansas City squad may not be as explosive as in past years, you can never sleep on an offense with Patty at the helm. It'll be interesting to see how well he does targeting Travis Kelce, who projects to be defended by All-Pro Devin White for much of this one. That'll be a battle worth monitoring all afternoon.
I like the underdog Bucs to bounce back Sunday night. Brady is 9-3 straight up as a home dog in his career and 11-1 against the spread. Say no more!
Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers (-2.5)
We have an NFC West affair Monday night to wrap up our week four lineup, with the LA Rams traveling up the coast to Santa Clara for a date with the 49ers.
Each of these teams had title aspirations in the preseason and have failed to string together an impressive performance thus far. Jimmy G looked lost against Denver for much of the game and Matthew Stafford looks old, hurt, or some combination of both. The Niners have at least managed to run the ball a little bit, unlike Cam Akers and the Rams.
This'll be a gritty, stereotypical divisional showdown. Expect a lot of pressure on each QB and a few mistakes as a result. We'll take the LA Rams here to improve to 3-1 and tighten their grip on the West.
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@Choppinglines
*This is not gambling advice, just our opinions. Consider at your own risk
*I own no rights to any images found in this blog
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