As we reach the end of our NFC previews, we'd be remiss not to discuss the South. I think it speaks to the overall quality of the division when there was a conclusive improvement once Carolina added Baker Mayfield at quarterback. Not many teams in the league would be so high on such a pickup. Regardless, there should be some fun story lines to follow in the NFC South, starting with the heavy betting favorite Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-300).
Entering his third season as the quarterback in Tampa, Tom Brady is seeking his second ring with the team. On paper, they're as stacked as any on the offensive side. Comprised of Mike Evans, Leonard Fournette, Chris Godwin and now Julio Jones, their list of weapons is a real who's who. Unfortunately, Evans just pulled his hamstring and is set to miss a few weeks, Lenny came into camp thirty pounds overweight, Godwin is recovering from an ACL surgery and Julio has missed fourteen games in the last two years. For fantasy purposes, these players aren't the layups they have been in the past, at least early in the season.
The Bucs defense will still be a force to be reckoned with. Led by fourth year middle linebacker Devin White, the fifth ranked defense from a year ago will be running it back with most of their main pieces. Free agent signing Akiem Hicks will slot in at D-End to fill the shoes of the departed JPP, which should be an upgrade on a defensive line already featuring Vita Vea.
Regardless of the health of the core skill players on this offense, Brady and this stout defense will keep Tampa competitive.
Their biggest competition for the NFC South crown? The New Orleans Saints (+375), featuring the always entertaining, former Buccaneers QB Jameis Winston. After trotting out one of the worst sets of receivers in 2021, the team invested some necessary resources at the position, signing free agent Jarvis Landry and taking Chris Olave (my favorite for offensive rookie of the year) with the 11th pick in the NFL draft. With Michael Thomas returning too, the Saints' air attack should be much more potent.
Keep an eye on the Alvin Kamara situation, as the star running back may face a suspension for an offseason battery charge, though it's seeming less likely as time passes. He's a surefire RB1 in this offense.
Offseason acquisitions of safeties Marcus Maye and Tyrann Mathieu are going to really reinforce the backside of an already great defense that gave up the 4th fewest yards a year ago. The team also extended their stud cornerback Marshon Lattimore in March on a five-year, $110 million deal. With another year of experience under Marcus Davenport's belt, I see the former first round pick racking up 14 sacks this year off the edge, which should take some pressure off of Cameron Jordan opposite of him.
This defense will be good, again. Maybe better. Dennis Allen, the former defensive coordinator- now head coach, is a big reason for this. As the Saints enter their first season without Sean Payton since 2006 (minus the 2012 Bountygate suspension), Allen will be called upon to provide some stability in the turnover with a familiar face preaching the same mission. Great value pick here in NOLA.
To Charlotte we go, where the Carolina Panthers (+1000) have an ongoing quarterback competition featuring two of the top three picks from the 2018 draft. Word from multiple official and unofficial sources is that Baker Mayfield has outshined Sam Darnold so far in camp, but the team has refused to name a starter. Matt Rhule has been known to do some strange things in the past, so maybe looking too far into this, but Mayfield not being able to clearly win this battle would be concerning.
There's plenty of talent at the skill positions for these QB's to work with however. Former first-rounder DJ Moore was solid last season, in spite of terrible play under center, racking up 93 catches for 1,157 yards and four touchdowns. Robby Anderson is a versatile deep threat across from him and second year player Terrace Marshall Jr. has been generating some buzz so far in camp as well.
A strong group of WR's paired with All-Pro running back Christian McCaffery gives this offense so much potential for explosiveness. Having only played in ten games the last two seasons however, McCaffery's health is a red flag. But if he can stay off the IR and they can get some competency at quarterback, this offense could be as productive as any in the league.
On the defensive side of the ball, the Panthers should be a little better this year. The team hopes Brian Burns and Yetur Gross-Matos can continue to develop into a formidable tandem of pass rushers. CJ Henderson has been great in camp per reports, and Jaycee Horn is a high upside player at the other cornerback position. Throw in talented safety Jeremy Chinn, coming into his third season, and there are pieces that could really elevate this defense. But I don't expect this team to be much more then scrappy and Rhule will probably be fired midseason too.
Finally, the team I expect to be firmly in last place of the NFC South, the Atlanta Falcons (+2500). They've seemingly managed to remain pretty calm during a pretty tumultuous offseason, perhaps indicating low expectations from the get go. It started with Calvin Ridley being given a year-long ban for gambling on the NFL, which severely damaged an already weak receiver room. Then quarterback Matt Ryan was traded to Indianapolis.
I'm sure they got as much as they could in return for Ryan, securing a third round pick from the Colts for their longtime QB. It has to be disappointing for him that he wasn't able to accomplish a little more with some of the hyper-talented offenses they had during his time with the team. Free agent signing Marcus Mariota will now step under center for the dirty birds. Given that his weapons essentially consist of just Kyle Pitts and rookie Drake London, I have incredibly low expectations for this offense through the air.
Cordarelle Patterson was a fun story last year at running back, but reports have been that Tyler Allgeier has had a good camp thus far. Word on the street is that he's on track to cut into Patterson's touches, and potentially significantly. A backfield only to be sought by desperate or deep fantasy teams.
The Falcons' defense was a weak unit in 2021-2022, allowing the fourth most points per game. The front office didn't do a ton to change that this offseason either, although the addition of Casey Hayward at cornerback could pair really nicely with second-team All-Pro AJ Terrell. With some of the talented wideouts in this division, having two strong corners is huge.
They'll need some help up front though to make sure they aren't covering for eight seconds a play. Atlanta recorded just 18 sacks a year ago, the fewest in the league by eleven. That's an area they must improve in if they have any aspirations of being competitive. And I don't see it happening this year.
As long as Tom Brady is in Tampa Bay, they're going to be my pick to win this division. I'm well aware of the injury situation, but this team has a defense that can win them some games when they're not at their best. I love the Saints as a sleeper here, and at an incredible value, but I see them as more of a wildcard team in the NFC then the champion of the South.
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@Choppinglines
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