With millions of fantasy drafts happening in the next two weeks, we at Chopping Lines have compiled a list of who we think's going off this season, who won't live up to their draft rankings and some sleepers who might just bring you home a trophy. As an added bonus, we included six potential stashes for dynasty leagues, plus our rationale behind them. Let's get into things.
Booms:
Patriots RB Rhamondre Stevenson- Currently getting drafted about two rounds behind running mate Damien Harris, the second year running back from Oklahoma is the better value with higher upside. Harris had fifteen touchdowns last season, a stat that is likely to regress in Stevenson's favor. They each averaged 4.6 YPC, but Rhamondre had 69 less carries. And with pass catching running back James White's recent retirement, somebody has to help fill that third down RB role. I look for Belichick to ride with Stevenson's fresher legs.
Prediction: 181 carries for 868 yards, 32 receptions for 264 yards, 12 total touchdowns
Bills RB James Cook- With Cook's current ADP being in the 9th/10th round range, he also qualifies as a dynasty target and sleeper here. It's baffling to me that the Bills have been so ineffective at establishing a running game with how dynamic their offense has been the last two seasons. I believe that's more of an indictment on Devin Singletary and Zack Moss then anything else, and that it's finally time that changes. Cook is explosive and versatile and will run away with this job by the second half.
Prediction: 166 carries for 813 yards, 44 receptions for 318 yards, 9 total touchdowns
Colts WR Michael Pittman Jr.- On pace for a new quarterback every year since being drafted, Pittman finds himself currently in the most opportune spot of his career. He's the clear cut top pass catcher on the Colts and should command well over the 25.9% target share he incurred last season. Matt Ryan may not be in his prime anymore, but he'll represent a sizeable upgrade to Carson Wentz under center. Look for MPJ to have a career year on the way to Indianapolis winning the AFC South
Prediction: 118 receptions for 1,374 yards and 11 touchdowns
Ravens WR Rashod Bateman- Another WR1 by default as much as talent, I'm sky high on Baltimore's Rashod Bateman. With Hollywood Brown's trade to Arizona vacating an additional 146 targets, Bateman will at least double the 68 he saw a year ago. This offense, that can and has supported solid fantasy receivers in recent years, should be able to regain their identity with Lamar Jackson back healthy under center, actual NFL talents available at running back, and an offensive line that will be much improved. Rashod Bateman will be a household name by the New Year.
Prediction: 106 receptions for 1,252 yards and 9 touchdowns
Broncos TE Albert Okwuegbunam- My top tight end breakout candidate this year belongs to Albert O. The third year player was a steady target last season, drawing at least three targets in over half of the games despite being the team's TE2. Now with Noah Fant up in Seattle, nobody is in his way on the depth chart. Given the unfortunate ACL injury suffered by Tim Patrick earlier this offseason, there are plenty of targets for the big-bodied TE to absorb, especially in the red zone. I expect Okwuegbunam to have a breakout season with Russell Wilson.
Prediction: 61 receptions for 647 yards and 10 touchdowns
Busts:
Cardinals RB James Conner- The fifth highest scoring running back last year broke out for the Cardinals with 18 total touchdowns. He'll undoubtedly regress from those totals in 2022, even with Chase Edmonds darting for Miami this offseason. The former Pittsburgh running back only averaged 3.7 YPC, has never eclipsed 1,000 yards rushing or played an entire season. Plus this offense will not be as effective through the first six games with Deandre Hopkins suspended. I don't think James will have a bad year necessarily, but he's not worth his current draft value.
Prediction: 186 carries for 681 yards, 40 receptions for 388 yards, 9 total touchdowns
Giants RB Saquon Barkley- "This is his bounce back season," "He looks so impressive in practice," "Look at those quads!" I've heard it all before, I've been burnt by it, and no longer. After barely playing in 2020 and a very unproductive 2021 campaign, I'm not convinced that his explosiveness can translate through a 17-game schedule, especially with Daniel Jones under center. While I think his current ADP is more fair than past years, given his minimal competition for touches, but I don't have high hopes for Saquon this year.
Prediction: 197 carries for 723 yards, 37 receptions for 229 yards, 6 total touchdowns
Browns WR Amari Cooper- Never have been high on Amari Cooper, even with Deshaun Watson potentially under center. Now that he'll be stuck with Jacoby Brissett for the first eleven games, I'm completely taking the former first round pick off of my boards. Cooper underachieved last season with much better quarterback play and a significantly better supporting cast of receivers, only putting up 865 yards on 68 receptions with 8 touchdowns. I don't think he reaches any of those milestones in 2022.
Prediction: 65 receptions for 753 yards and 5 touchdowns
Commanders WR Terry McLaurin- Statistically, Terry McLaurin's 2021 numbers pass some eye tests- racking up 1,053 yards on 77 receptions. As a recovering fantasy owner of Terry's however, we know these numbers were deceiving. Given his mid-second round ADP, he was an absolute bust last season. All considered, he more than made the most out of his poor quarterback situation-- featuring a quarter of Ryan Fitzpatrick, Taylor Heinicke and Garrett Gilbert. But given last season's showing, the investment in first round pick Jahan Dotson and the teams "upgrade" to Carson Wentz under center, there's a long list of receivers I'd rather have in the early/mid third round.
Prediction: 80 receptions for 987 yards and 6 touchdowns
Raiders TE Darren Waller- One of the best stories in recent years from the NFL is Darren Waller overcoming substance abuse to become one of the premier tight ends in the league. By all accounts, he's a humble and determined individual, the kind of guy who can be the face of an organization. Despite missing six games last season, he still finished at TE17, suggesting a good bit of upside during a fully healthy campaign. Vegas traded for Davante Adams this offseason though, who is likely to steal a ton of targets in this offense. Combined with PPR monster Hunter Renfrow, I think Waller's ceiling and floor are significantly lower than his ADP suggests. Worth a grab if he tumbles, but temper expectations.
Prediction: 53 receptions for 603 yards and 4 touchdowns
Sleepers:
Ravens RB JK Dobbins- This was a big time hype train a year ago, until a torn ACL in training camp derailed it. But he's back, and we're all aboard the Dobbins train. After averaging 6.0 YPC as a rookie, JK looks to be the lead runner in a Baltimore backfield that should be very productive this season. With Lamar back handling the RPO looks, defenses will have to be honest as they try to attack the Ravens backfield. This is going to lead to some huge numbers for the third year running back, as his rising ADP is indicating.
Prediction: 173 carries for 949 yards, 41 receptions for 291 yards, 14 total touchdowns
Commanders RB Brian Robinson Jr.- Originally a dynasty stash of ours, Robinson has recently jumped into our sleeper category. The rookie has shown out in camp, earning first team touches over incumbent back Antonio Gibson. As a result, Gibson--going in the late second/early third round a few weeks ago, has been tumbling down boards as Robinson has been shooting up. I think ultimately this will be more of a hot-hand committee than a singularly owned backfield, but it's seeming more and more that Brian Robinson is the member of that committee to draft.
Prediction: 203 carries for 978 yards, 19 receptions for 145 yards, 10 total touchdowns
Saints WR Chris Olave- The third receiver off the board in the 2022 draft is set for a huge year down in NOLA. With gunslinger Jameis Winston returning from an ACL injury, Michael Thomas returning from his ankle ailments and the free agent signing of Jarvis Landry, this Saints offense is poised to be dangerous through the air. This arsenal of weapons will make it hard for defenses to cover everybody, and Chris Olave should be the benefactor of this. At +1000, he's my Offensive Rookie of the Year bet; don't be surprised if he ends up as Winston's leading receiver in New Orleans.
Prediction: 84 receptions for 1,003 yards and 6 touchdowns
Broncos WR KJ Hamler- A pure sleeper here, I think Hamler may actually finish as the fourth highest scoring pass catcher on his team. Given his nearly undrafted status though, his statistics should far outweigh his value. The former second-round selection from Penn State has wheels and easily the best quarterback of his career. With Tim Patrick going down, KJ should have minimal competition for the WR3 position in Denver. If you can scoop Hamler late in your drafts, you won't be disappointed.
Prediction: 51 receptions for 664 yards and 4 touchdowns
Bengals TE Hayden Hurst- A sneaky free agent signing here, tight end Hayden Hurst should be able to step into a viable role in Cincinnati. Being behind Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd on the pass-catching chart will limit his ceiling, but Hurst should have plenty of opportunities to get his in this high-powered air attack. As with Hamler, the stats here won't win you any leagues. But for a late-round fantasy selection, Hurst could be a valuable member of any team.
Prediction: 43 receptions for 442 yards and 6 touchdowns
Dynasty Stashes:
Chargers RB Isaiah Spiller- Austin Ekeler's entering his sixth year, with only one more on his contract. He's also only played every game in a season twice, although he only sat out one in 2021. Spiller currently projects as a two-down back which limits his PPR-ceiling, but he has at least a year to work on that behind Ekeler. If he ends up capitalizing on his opportunities this year, he could transition to a timeshare in 2023 and potentially have the position outright by 2024.
Titans RB Hassan Haskins- Need to keep this one realistic- Haskins isn't going to be the next Derrick Henry. But he could be a workhorse in a run-first offense, which always has some fantasy value. He's a true stash with King Henry not going anywhere for at least two years, so don't spend too highly on him. But if you have a late round pick to burn, he's worth a look.
Colts WR Alec Pierce- As we mentioned in our Michael Pittman Jr. segment above, there really is no current #2 receiver on this Colts team. Alec Pierce seems most poised to seize this role. The 6'3" rookie from Cincinnati has made some great impressions throughout camp thus far, regularly matched up versus All-Pro Stephon Gilmore-- a steep learning curve that will surely prepare him for game action. If Pierce can earn this WR2 spot in Indy, he could be a steal for this year and beyond with his current ADP in the 14th round.
Steelers WR George Pickens- While I loved the David Ojabo pick for the Ravens, it wouldn't have hurt my feelings to see them trade back into the second round to go after Pickens. The Georgia product has dazzled in Pittsburgh camp so far, with several acrobatic catches and big plays. Character concerns aside, he's shown every bit of the first round talent scouts claimed he possessed. I wouldn't be surprised to see the rookie lead Pittsburgh in touchdown receptions this season en route to a starting spot next year.
Packers WR Christian Watson- I was really high on Watson after the Packers took him in the second round of this year's draft. Trading Davante Adams vacated 169 targets and it only made sense that such a high pick would absorb a good chunk of them. But the rookie needed knee surgery two months ago which has caused him to miss most of camp. Now that he's off the PUP list, the North Dakota State product will have to work quickly to build chemistry with Aaron Rodgers. If Watson can do that, his ceiling this year could be very high, especially given that he's going undrafted in many leagues. As far as keeper leagues go, absolutely find a way to snag this guy late.
Cardinals TE Trey McBride- Arizona's second round selection was a solid pass catcher while at Colorado State. He'll be entering a pass happy offense that happens to have their best receiver suspended for the first six weeks. With Zach Ertz still firmly ahead of him on the depth chart, it's hard to imagine McBride being on the redraft radar with much regularity this season. But the 31-year old Ertz has missed at least five games in each of the last three seasons, so don't be surprised to see the rookie gain steam at some point, this season and beyond.
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@Choppinglines
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