After trading a third round pick for Matt Ryan in May, the Indianapolis Colts (-140) became the favorites of the AFC South. Ryan represents a sizeable upgrade at quarterback over 2021 starter Carson Wentz and Michael Pittman Jr. should be the main benefactor of this. Coming off career high totals of catches and receiving yards, MPJ is poised to easily top these numbers in 2022. He's justifiably shooting up fantasy draft boards.
Jonathan Taylor also is looking to build upon huge numbers from a year ago. The reigning offensive player of the year tallied an insane 2,171 total yards en route to his award and should greatly benefit from a quarterback who can actually keep the defense honest. I wouldn't be surprised to see Taylor eclipse 2,400 total yards this year.
On the defensive side of the ball, Shaquille (formerly Darius) Leonard will pair up with elite corner Stephon Gilmore to make up the crux of what should be a competitive defense. Deforest Buckner, Kwity Paye and Yannick Ngakoue will be a handful for any offensive line to handle each week. This Colts defense will probably fly under the radar for much of the season, but they have the talent to be a top ten unit when it's all said and done.
The division winners from a year ago, the Tennessee Titans (+140) will look to win the South for a third straight season. Tennessee had a very interesting draft weekend, moving star receiver AJ Brown on the first night to Philadelphia for the #18 pick--which they turned into Brown's replacement Treylon Burks. He'll have huge shoes to fill at wideout, but free agent addition Robert Woods should help with that.
Once the third round came around, the Titans rolled the dice on Malik Willis, who was arguably the top quarterback prospect going into the draft. This decision drew the overanalyzed reaction from Ryan Tannehill that, "it wasn't his job to mentor his replacement." Willis has looked alright in the preseason thus far, but it would be a bad sign for Tennessee if he needs to be called upon this year.
Hassan Haskins will be a nice spell for Derrick Henry in the backfield. The rookie from Michigan has some pop through the hole which will help soften up defenses some. He's a very interesting flyer to consider late in dynasty drafts.
Mike Vrabel's defense allowed the second fewest rushing yards last season. Unfortunately, they couldn't stop anybody through the air. The team hopes that 2021 first rounder Caleb Farley, who missed all but two games last year with a torn ACL, and recent second round pick Roger McCreary will be able to step up and help star safety Kevin Byard in the secondary.
The defensive line, highlighted by Harold Landry, Jeffery Simmons and Denico Autry, combined for 29.5 sacks last season, a big factor in preventing more passing yards. If they can run it back this year anywhere near that level of production, it'll go a long way in helping the Titans to achieve their divisional threepeat.
Led by signal caller Trevor Lawrence, the Jacksonville Jaguars (+800) hope to see some substantial improvements as he enters his sophomore campaign. The Clemson alum struggled in his inaugural season, throwing 17 interceptions to just 12 touchdowns. Poor offensive line play and horrid coaching a la Urban Meyer certainly didn't do him any favors however.
The Jags will get back running backs Travis Etienne and James Robinson from season-ending injuries. This one-two combo should be a productive one if the offensive line can give them room to run. Marquee free agent receiver Christian Kirk will replace DJ Chark as a speedster on the outside. I hated this signing personally and felt it was an egregious overpay, but that's what bad franchises need to do to attract talent. We'll see if it pays off.
Despite having another #1 overall pick on the D-line, this defense as a whole should not be a very good one. Travon Walker has had some flashes this preseason, and he should work well with Josh Allen in one of the few bright spots for Jaguars fans on this side of the ball. Outside of that though, this unit looks like a middling one at best.
Wrapping up the AFC South with the dark horse Houston Texans (+3000). I am surprised by the massive odds gap between them and Jacksonville, based on the similar overall talent levels for each team. Davis Mills and Brandin Cooks will look to build upon the chemistry they showed for much of last season, and rookie running back Dameon Pierce has been an explosive player throughout training camp. This isn't going to be a top 10 offense by any means, but there's no reason they shouldn't be scrappy in most games.
Rookies Derek Stingley Jr. and Jalen Pitre should log bigtime snaps in at corner and safety, respectively. If they play well, it raises the ceiling of this defense. Houston managed to sign defensive end Jerry Hughes in free agency, who the team hopes can bounce back from his lowest sack total since 2011. Like the Jaguars, there are a pieces in place on this defense--but it's unlikely this is the year they put it all together, even under defensive minded head coach Lovie Smith.
Prayers up to rookie receiver John Metchie III, who was diagnosed with leukemia this July. He'll be sitting out this year to focus on kicking cancer's ass, which we all know he'll do.
This division is really a two-horse race between Indy and Tennessee. I think it's the Colts' year to break through and claim the South, on the shoulders of Matty Ice. It's not always going to be pretty for them, but they're the most complete team of the four and they're rightfully valued as such by MGM Grand. Another chalky pick here, but one we're confident in.
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@Choppinglines
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