The reigning AFC champion Cincinnati Bengals (+175) actually come in with the second best odds of winning the North. Sensational third year QB Joe Burrow will be looking to build off of a strong 2021 showing that saw him throw for 4,611 yards and 34 touchdowns, while leading the Bengals to some really impressive comebacks.
Burrow will be running it back with essentially the same supporting cast. Tight end CJ Uzomah did leave in free agency to the Jets, but was replaced by former Raven Hayden Hurst. Outside of that, Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd make up the crux of arguably the best receiving core in the NFL and Joe Mixon is a star three-down back. Joe Shiesty should have no shortage of options as he goes through his reads this year.
The defense will also return most of their starters from a year ago. Rookie safety Dax Hill may be asked to handle significant snaps earlier then anticipated with starter Jessie Bates currently refusing to play under the franchise tag. At the moment, the first round selection of Hill seems like a pretty solid contingency plan for the situation. Chidobe Awuzie, Von Bell and Eli Apple round out the starters in the secondary.
The Bengals hope that Trey Hendrickson can record similar numbers to his career high 14 sacks from 2021. With generally pretty average talent throughout the secondary, his ability to get after the quarterback was crucial down the stretch and a big catalyst in their Super Bowl run. His play will absolutely impact the ceiling of this unit.
Entering week 13 at 8-3 last season, nobody saw the Baltimore Ravens (+145) going winless the rest of the way and finishing last in the division. Such was the unfortunate reality however, as the team was absolutely decimated by injuries to big names such as Ronnie Stanley, JK Dobbins, Marcus Peters, Marlon Humphrey and ultimately Lamar Jackson.
Jackson, the 2019 unanimous MVP, worked hard all offseason-- putting on fifteen pounds of muscle and fully healing his body up as he continues negotiations on what should be monumental contract. The front office's commitment to bolstering the offensive line should pay dividends in his performance-- opening up running lanes for him, JK Dobbins and Gus Edwards, as well as allowing the QB to settle in more on passing plays. Lamar's my pick for MVP, lock in that +2200 where you can.
This will be a big season for Rashod Bateman as the WR1. The smooth route runner has impeccable hands and should pair very nicely with 2021 All-Pro tight end Mark Andrews as a one-two punch. People make a huge fuss over the Ravens thin receiver depth, but seem to disregard similar situations like we saw in Kansas City for years with Hill/Kelce, or even Green Bay when it was just Davante Adams. If #8 stays healthy, this offense has more than enough to be dangerous week in and week out.
Free agent Marcus Williams and #14 draft pick Kyle Hamilton add two versatile and talented safeties to an already strong secondary. There are obviously question marks surrounding corners Marcus Peters and Marlon Humphrey, each of whom are returning from season ending injuries, but if they come back anywhere near 100% then this Ravens team may be hard to beat through the air. Slot corner Kyle Fuller was also a big addition to this group.
Odafe Oweh hopes to continue showing growth as a pass rusher after a promising rookie season. He'll be the featured guy in that role for Baltimore, joined by Tyus Bowser and recent second round draft selection David Ojabo after each are cleared from their Achilles' tears. It's far from the who's who list of names on the back end of this defense, but each of these young edge rushers have some upside.
The franchise in this division with the most turmoil this offseason was easily the Cleveland Browns (+375). It started with former QB Baker Mayfield's public divorce with the team, severely damaging their leverage when engaging in trade talks surrounding the disgruntled signal caller.
Cleveland followed up on this public spat with the former Heisman winner by making a blockbuster trade with the Texans for Deshaun Watson, despite numerous investigations for sexual misconduct. This move fully pushed Baker out the door and opened up the franchise to national criticism after giving Watson a new, fully guaranteed $230 million dollar deal. He'll pay $5 million of that as a fine to the league and serve an 11 game suspension to start the season.
Unless the Browns make a splash move (Jimmy G?), they'll be rolling with Jacoby Brissett for these first 11 games. He'll be working with a thin receiving core, headlined by Amari Cooper and Donovan Peoples-Jones, plus recently extended tight end David Njoku-- a pretty inexplosive group as a whole. Running backs Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt are as strong a tandem as there is in the league, but with Hunt's recently denied trade request, it's hard to predict how content he'll be with his situation in the backfield.
Led by star edge rusher Myles Garrett, this Cleveland defense allowed just the 5th most yards per game in 2021. The team brought Jadaveon Clowney back to lineup opposite of Garrett, giving them imposing bookends on the defensive line. Emerging second year linebacker Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah and a solid group of corners in Denzel Ward, Greg Newsome and Greedy Williams will all work together to make this defense one that could carry the Browns to a win or two in Watson's absence.
Oddly enough, the team with the longest odds to win the North have not finished with a losing record since 2003. It's also the last time the Pittsburgh Steelers (+900) did not have Ben Roethlisberger on the roster, a testament to his run in the Steel City.
Mitch Trubisky appears to be the starter as of this blog being written, but Kenny Pickett has looked much better than I expected him too thus far in the preseason, albeit against mostly backups. While either is a slight downgrade at quarterback, it really isn't as big of a gap as Big Ben's legacy suggests. Those who watched him last year could clearly see his better days were well behind him.
Whoever is under center will have some weapons to work with. Diontae Johnson and TikTok star Chase Claypool will start at receiver, but rookies George Pickens and Calvin Austin will definitely get their touches. Pat Freiermuth seems to be a pretty good tight end, and I think this is going to be a breakout year for Najee Harris. This offense shouldn't be worse than last year's product.
Pittsburgh extended Minkah Fitzpatrick in June, locking up their star safety for the next four seasons. He'll work with returning Defensive Player of the Year TJ Watt to hold down what seems to be a perpetually strong defense. Myles Jack should be a nice signing by the Steelers. I wouldn't be surprised at all if they're able to maximize his talent in ways that Jacksonville was unable to.
Maybe a homer pick, but give me the Baltimore Ravens (+145) to take the AFC North in 2022. Outside of receiver, they're deep and talented at virtually every position. They were 8-3 last season before Lamar got hurt-- and that was without their top three running backs, starting left tackle, second cornerback and so on. If this is any semblance of healthy team this year, the North is theirs.
Lock in the Bengals to earn a wildcard berth and don't be surprised to see Pittsburgh finish ahead of Cleveland in the standings when it's all said and done. This should be as competitive a division as any in the league.
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@Choppinglines
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