Onto the AFC we go, starting with the East. Headlined by the current Super Bowl favorites, the Buffalo Bills (+600 SB odds, -225 to win division) look to finally complete a run this year for the Lombardi trophy. Lead by MVP favorite Josh Allen under center, Buffalo is poised to have one of the most powerful attacks in the league.
Stefon Diggs will be joined by emerging talents Gabriel Davis and Isaiah McKenzie to make up the receiving core, with Dawson Knox hoping to follow up on a breakout year at tight end. Throw in rookie James Cook at running back and there's actually a relatively high level of inexperience here. It shouldn't matter with a quarterback like Allen at the helm, but don't be surprised if there are a few hiccups here and there, especially if they continue failing to establish the run.
Their biggest addition on the defensive side of the ball was free agent edge rusher Von Miller. Fresh off of a Super Bowl win in his own right, the 33 year-old Miller signed with the AFC favorites on a questionable six-year $120 million contract. No denying the talent, but the length of the deal doesn't make sense to me here. We'll see if he can live up to it though, joining a defensive line already featuring young players like Ed Oliver and AJ Epenesa.
The Bills also selected cornerback Kaiir Elam with their first round pick out of Florida. There have been a number of positive reports about his play throughout training camp, a good sign for a team that lacked cornerback depth last year. He'll be joining a secondary featuring 2021 AP first team and second team All-Pros, respectively, Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde. If Tre'Davious White comes back anywhere near 100% from his ACL surgery, this Buffalo secondary has potential to be one of the best.
Hopes are high down in South Beach for the Miami Dolphins (+475). After a massive trade back on 4/20 for lightning-fast receiver Tyreek Hill, the table is set for quarterback Tua Tagavailoa. With Hill, who called Tagavailoa "the most accurate quarterback he's ever played with", and Jaylen Waddle at receiver, plus the resigned Mike Gesicki at tight end, Tua has some elite pass catchers at his disposal.
Free agent acquisitions of Raheem Mostert, Sony Michel and Chase Edmonds at running back should help establish the rushing game, and the signing of stud left tackle Terron Armstead from San Francisco will absolutely anchor what was the worst offensive line in the game last year. No more excuses for the third year Alabama QB!
The Dolphins have a solid duo of cornerbacks in Byron Jones and Xavien Howard. However, Jones is currently on the PUP list dealing with an ankle injury, opening up reps for some younger guys. The team would be ecstatic to see the underachieving first-rounder Noah Igbinoghene step up in his absence. With PFF All-Pro safety Jevon Holland over the top, this group should once again finish in the top half of the league in passing yards allowed.
With no premier pass rushers, Miami surprisingly finished sixth in sacks in 2021. Team-leaders Jaelan Phillips and Emmanuel Ogbah are set to return and will be bolstered by veteran free agent addition Melvin Ingram. This defense may not be top five when it's all said and done, but they don't really have any true weaknesses. We'll see what head coach Mike McDaniel can do with this talented Dolphins team in his inaugural campaign.
Having the exact same odds to win the AFC East are the New England Patriots (+475). With Belichick at the reins for his 23rd season in Foxborough, the Patriots are guaranteed to at least be steady. Mac Jones should improve in his second go round, despite the uncertainty at offensive coordinator. Currently it seems to be a mix of Joe Judge and former defensive coordinator Matt Patricia making the play calls. An obscure situation, we'll see how much longer it lasts.
Mac's going to be running it back with tailbacks Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson, who make a pretty respectable tandem. For fantasy purposes, expect Harris to regress from the 15 touchdowns he had a year ago. I also expect Stevenson's role to increase as a rusher and pass catcher, especially with James White's recent retirement.
Jakobi Meyers and Kendrick Bourne headline the receiving room for the Pats, with newcomers Devante Parker and rookie standout Tyquan Thompson providing some quality depth. Throw in Nelson Agholor and Hunter Henry vulturing touchdowns, and there are a ton of mouths to feed. This air game should be versatile on the field, but generally untrustworthy for fantasy purposes.
Safety Devin McCourty and Matthew Judon, who produced 12.5 sacks a year ago, will be leading the New England defense. This is a young defense overall though, with some high upside players. Their veteran leadership on the field paired with Belichick's defensive prowess make this unit difficult to predict. The Pats always manage to be fundamentally solid and 2022 shouldn't be any different.
The dark horses in the East, the New York Jets come in with a crazy line of (+2200). While I'm not a believer in them to win the division, they do have a deep and explosive core of receivers. Elijah Moore, Garrett Wilson, Corey Davis, Denzel Mims and Braxton Berrios (whose also a Pro-Bowl return man) all have big play ability. Zach Wilson needs to heal up quickly to show what he's capable of with this arsenal of weapons.
Even with the recent injury to OT Mekhi Becton, this offensive line should be an improved unit. This will help Wilson/Flacco to stay upright and make throws down the field, as well as open holes in the running game. Michael Carter showed some promise in his rookie campaign, but has seemingly taken a back seat in his competition with their explosive second-round pick Breece Hall. Regardless of who gets the lion's share of the carries in this offense, this will not be the 6th worst rushing attack in the NFL again.
Under head coach and defensive guru Robert Saleh, the Jets have enough pieces to be scrappy on defense. Quinnen Williams has star potential on the D-line and should benefit from the additions of Carl Lawson and Solomon Thomas. #4 pick Sauce Gardner should bring some swag to the secondary and help them overcome the loss of Marcus Maye. Don't expect this to be an elite group, but this defense may be able to steal a game or two that they weren't supposed to.
This division winner seems pretty straightforward to me as the Buffalo Bills (-225). And it'll likely stay that way until Tua, Mac or Zach can step up and counter Josh Allen's elite quarterback play. There are plenty of weapons on these teams to make that possible, but I don't see this being the year it happens. Circle the wagons Buffalo.
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@Choppinglines
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