For our first Chopping Lines NFL divisional preview, we're taking a look in at the stout NFC West. Three of the four teams in this division made the playoffs last year, including our Super Bowl winner, and it doesn't look like those teams have fallen off much.
Speaking of the defending champion Los Angeles Rams, Les Snead has managed to bring back essentially the whole core of that team, minus the retired Andrew Whitworth, a rental Von Miller, Robert Woods and current free agent OBJ. As a result, the Rams are currently betting favorites to win the division again at +120 (per MGM Sportsbook).
After replacing Woods and Beckham with marquee free agent receiver Allen Robinson, the Rams also managed to extend Aaron Donald and Cooper Kupp to keep them as happy parts of the roster. The team's cap management and total disregard for building through the draft has been a fascinating development over the last few years, and it seems they've again used this strategy to build a contender.
Matthew Stafford will be at the helm for his second season in LA. With Cam Akers back and another offseason of work with Kupp, Van Jefferson and Tyler Higbee, I expect Stafford to have another statistically strong season. Nobody should be holding their breath on him being an MVP candidate, but he'll almost certainly have the Rams back in the hunt for a repeat.
The Arizona Cardinals should also be in the running for NFC West supremacy as the year goes. After blowing the divisional lead last season, costing me a handsome payout..., they should be hungry for revenge. Led by recently extended fourth year quarterback Kyler Murray, the Cardinals (+300) boast possibly the most dynamic offense in the West. Even with stud wideout Deandre Hopkins suspended for the first six weeks of the year, the team still will be able to trot out talented skill players like James Connor, Hollywood Brown, Zach Ertz and Rondale Moore to run up scoreboards.
I anticipate Arizona having trouble on the defensive side of the ball. After losing edge rusher Chandler Jones to Las Vegas, they only managed to replace him with two third round rookies Cameron Thomas and Myjai Sanders. The Cards have some solid foundational pieces like, like Budda Baker and Isaiah Simmons, but a thin an inexperienced cornerback room will be challenged by some of the great receivers in the division. Another big season getting after the QB from Markus Golden would go a long way in helping all of these young guys come up to speed.
Another wildcard in the West are the San Francisco 49ers, led by Kyle Shanahan. With the second highest odds to win the division (+200), oddsmakers are showing they believe in the coach and Trey Lance. The team appeared to fully endorse the sophomore quarterback with news breaking Wednesday that Jimmy Garappolo was given permission to seek a trade. This would leave journeyman Nate Sudfeld as the new backup.
Offensively, per Shanahan's MO, the 9ers are going to run the ball. Elijah Mitchell should be in for a big workload. And maybe, just maybe...Trey Sermon can find himself not perpetually in the doghouse this season. Don't hold your breath there. This offense has a strong offensive line and an exciting group of pass catchers. Between the versatile Deebo Samuel, emerging Jajuan Jennings and Brandon Aiyuk, this team has a strong receiver room. And we can't forget George Kittle. I'll be interested to see how aggressive and successful this offense is through the air with Lance under center.
With strong defense being an organizational standard, the third ranked defense from 2021 should again uphold that expectation. San Fran will be returning majority of their starters from last year, plus some depth in the secondary, which will make them a burden for any offensive coordinator they encounter. This dependable Bay Area defense and Kyle Shanahan's consistent ability to get the most out of his quarterbacks makes me believe their floor this season is higher then Arizona's.
Bringing up the rear of the NFC West are the Seattle Seahawks. Involved in one of the biggest stories this recent offseason, Seattle has gone from perennial Pro-Bowler Russell Wilson under center to the winner of the Geno Smith-Drew Lock competition. Not an enviable position to be in. I would think there'd be internal discussion about trying to trade for Garappolo, but I'm unsure if San Francisco would be willing to deal him within the division.
Whoever wins the QB battle won't lack weapons to work with. Running back Rashaad Penny came on strong toward the end of last year, and second round rookie Kenneth Walker has the makings to be an electric partner in the backfield. Receivers Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf have also combined for 55 touchdowns in three years together and will undoubtedly ease some of the burden their quarterbacks will place on themselves.
Free agent signings like Uchenna Nwosu and Artie Burns, as well as the resigning of Quandre Diggs, show that Seattle is committed to improving their 28th ranked defense. They'll need all the help they can get with Geno and Drew likely giving them multiple short fields per game.
Wrapping it all up, this really is the Rams division to lose. Having the most difficult schedule will obviously provide some hurdles, so I think there is value to be found in betting either San Francisco or Arizona to win the West, but pick your poison as each team has their share of question marks. Seattle, while not a divisional contender here (+1600), should be plenty scrappy in their own right and will likely steal a game or two that they have no business being in.
This'll be an entertaining division to watch with plenty of storylines to follow before the season even gets here. But as of now, my official pick to win the West: The Los Angeles Rams (+120)
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