It's not often that a team finds itself needing to replace 52% of their wide receiver production from one year to the next, but that's exactly what the NFC North favorite Green Bay Packers (-165) had to do this offseason. After a tumultuous public spat with Aaron Rodgers, a historic new contract (3/$150) was settled upon March 15th. Just three days later, the MVP's favorite target Davante Adams was shipped to Las Vegas for a first and second round pick.
Rodgers cannot have a ton of confidence in the current receiver room. Allen Lazard is the top wideout returning to the team, recording 513 yards on 40 catches last year and eight touchdowns. Fair numbers, but it was clear by the eye test that he is not a number one receiver. Free agent addition Sammy Watkins should be decent at best, but I'm actually pretty high on their second round pick Christian Watson. I think the North Dakota State alumni is a very interesting future's bet for Offensive Rookie of the Year, currently at +800. Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon will stabilize the running back position and likely take some snaps in the slot from time to time.
The Packers' defense isn't one to be slept on. The top ten defense last year spent their two first round picks on Georgia Bulldogs MLB Quay Walker and NT Devontae Wyatt to bolster the middle. Jaire Alexander returning to pair with the emerging Rasul Douglas on the outside should help this unit to once again return to the top of the defensive rankings in 2022.
The Minnesota Vikings are as talented on offense as any team in the league. Currently valued at a tasty +260 to win the North, it's easy to find at least one reason not to be confident in the team: Mr. Mediocrity, Kirk Cousins.
The man pads stats like few others, with the fourth most passing yards in the NFL over the last five seasons (StatMuse), bringing fantasy value to himself and talented teammates Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielen and Dalvin Cook. In terms of actual team value though, Cousins is lacking. The Michigan State product has gone 10-40 versus winning teams since entering the NFL (SportsandFitness) and 1-3 in the playoffs, averaging a paltry 194 YPG. He just isn't the guy to take a team all the way, even in situations as ideal as Minnesota.
There is a little room for optimism on the defensive side of the ball. After giving up the third most yards in the league last year, the Vikings signed cornerback Patrick Peterson and OLB Za'Darius Smith from Green Bay to improve through free agency. They spent their first two draft picks on safety Lewis Cine and cornerback Andrew Booth with this same vision in mind. All four are expected to step in and play significant snaps immediately. If these vets and young pieces are able to gel under new defensive coordinator Ed Donatell, it raises the ceiling of the Vikes this season.
It will be interesting to see how the Detroit Lions (+850) continue to improve in Dan Campbell's second season as head coach. An underrated offensive line could help D'Andre Swift potentially thrive with a passing attack that may force defenses to not load the boxes, even with Jared Goff at the helm. Free agent deep threat DJ Chark should complement breakout receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown very nicely. Rookie Jameson Williams should be the best of the three when he's able to return, all of whom will help TJ Hockenson take advantage of space over the middle. Don't sleep on this offense, especially in the long run.
The defense should not be worse then last year's unit that finished fourth-last in yards allowed. The addition of Aidan Hutchinson with the #1 pick will absolutely boost a pass rush that finished third worst. Former Ravens' safety DeShon Elliott should fit in very nicely with the hardnosed coach. Unless Jeff Okudah decides to start playing up to his draft status, don't expect a major improvement on the defensive side of the ball in Detroit, but they should be scrappy enough to hang in most games.
Finally, we come to the Windy City. The Chicago Bears (+1000) are easily the worst team in the NFC North. Coming into his sophomore campaign, Justin Fields was not done many favors in the offseason by his front office. A bad offense from last season surely did not get better by losing receiver Allen Robinson, attempting to replace him with Byron Pringle and third-round rookie Velus Jones. I think Darnell Mooney is a solid talent and should have a pretty good season, but will ultimately be limited by a weak supporting cast.
David Montgomery is a workhouse that will have plenty of touches this season. How productive those touches are depends on the progression of Fields and his young weapons around him. Many would argue that the changeup from head coach Matt Nagy should be a huge boost to the offense in and of itself, which is hard to disagree with.
The underrated 6th best defense from 2021 should be solid once again this season, replacing departed Kyle Fuller with rookie Kyler Gordon, and drafting safety Jaquan Brisker in round two. Robert Quinn was on the trading block according to some rumors earlier in the offseason, but it seems he'll also be rolling again with the Bears. Unfortunately, it seems unlikely that this solid defensive group will be able to compensate for the offensive deficiencies.
Picking the winner to this division isn't as cut and dry as the betting lines suggest. While the Packers do have the two-time defending MVP and a great defense, I can't help but think Rodgers is due to fall off some without Davante to throw to.
My heart tells me that Kirk Cousins is incapable of doing this, but I believe I'm going to be rolling with: The Minnesota Vikings (+260) to take home the NFC North. Green Bay will absolutely still make the playoffs, but I think this year the Vikings will be able to close the talent gap just enough to squeak out a division title.
Side Note: Perhaps it's the optimist in me, but I actually don't hate the Lions at their current +850 to take the division. I've seen Jared Goff take a team with good offensive weapons to a Super Bowl, so I know it's as possible as it is unlikely. Detroit obviously doesn't have an Aaron Donald type talent holding down the defense like the Rams did, but in my opinion their potential on offense gives some value to Detroit to shock the world and steal the North. We'll see in the coming months here.
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@Choppinglines
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