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| Photo by Jason Getz |
With the first round of Major League Baseball's amateur draft this coming Sunday, July 17th, we have the top five going Baltimore, Arizona, Texas, Pittsburgh and Washington. As an Orioles fan, this has been an anxious leadup to 1:1 with a few viable candidates. At this point, I think I'm fully on the Druw Jones bus, but would be content if Termarr Johnson or Jackson Holliday was the pick. Nobody else has really screamed top pick to me through this process. But Mike Elias, I am not.
To prepare for the big day Sunday, and to elaborate further on some of those names above, we've got the Chopping Lines' top ten prospects in this draft. Most of these are consensus picks, but we have a few personal favorites we want to give some shine to and some sleepers at the end that we'll touch on. Let's take a look in:
Druw Jones
Our top talent in this draft, the 18 year old son of ten-time Gold Glove outfielder Andruw Jones is an athletic specimen. At 6'4", 180 lbs., the top prospect from Wesleyan High School (Ga) has plenty of room to fill out, but still powered thirteen long balls his senior season. He also batted .570, drove in 39 and stole 32 bases on the year, only striking out nine times while playing elite defense in center field.
Currently verbally committed to Vanderbilt University, it would be a great surprise to see Druw drop past the Diamondbacks with the second pick. Georgia's Gatorade Player of the year is considered by some scouts to be the best prep prospect since Bryce Harper. This is not a consensus across the industry though, which is why there's still debate on who will be the first selection in this draft. Regardless of where he's chosen though, Jones has the potential to be a superstar in this league the minute he arrives.
Termarr Johnson
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| Photo by Matt Dirksen/Colorado Rockies |
A fellow Georgia high school prospect, Termarr Johnson projects as a second baseman by the time he hits the majors. Viewed as arguably the best pure hitter in this draft, the stocky eighteen year old has drawn comparisons to Vladimir Guerrero and Wade Boggs. Some have even predicted a career trajectory similar to Robinson Cano's. High praise, to say the least.
At 5'10" and 175 pounds, Johnson does not have elite size or room to grow. What he does have are hit tool ratings ranging from 70-80 and power ratings of 60 and above. He gained some national publicity at last year's All-Star High School Home Run Derby, where he hit 24 dingers in two rounds, six travelling over 450 feet (MLB.com). Combine all that with his plate discipline and you can see where the aforementioned player comps are stemmed from. Scouts rave about Termarr's advanced eye and maturity at the plate for his age.
Despite the prospect's supreme projections at the plate, his limitations at premium defensive positions will probably drop him down some draft boards. However, there'll be a team that falls in love with the offensive potential Johnson possesses, most likely in the top six picks. It will be fun seeing how his hit tools translate to professional ball.
Elijah Green
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| Photo from Elijah Green/Twitter |
This time a year ago, high schooler Elijah Green seemed to be the front runner for the top pick in this draft. Fast forward a year and he's fallen a bit in the eyes of some pundits, but is still firmly entrenched in the top ten.
Out of IMG Academy in Florida, the son of former NFL tight end Eric Green looks like he could be a football player himself, measuring in at an intimidating 6'3", 225 lbs. After slashing a line of .462/9/32 in his senior high school season, he seems to be just as an intimidating presence in the batters box. He also has received scout ratings of 70+ for his speed, stealing 32 bases and playing a strong center field (MLB.com). Despite his large frame, he projects positively for this role in the big leagues.
The knock on the Florida prep product is a high number of swings and misses. Green struggled some with increased velocities and some off speed stuff as the level of his competition rose, but not to a degree that seems to be scaring away any teams. With his multiple, high-ceiling tools, Elijah Green deservedly will be a top selection in this draft.
Jackson Holliday
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| Photo by Stillwater Baseball/Twitter |
Son of former NL batting champion Matt Holliday, Jackson Holliday was announced as the Baseball America High School Player of the Year on June 28th. The 18-year old from Stillwater, Oklahoma hit an obscene .685 batting average during his senior campaign, only striking out nine times. In addition to his ability to get on base, Holliday also hit 17 home runs, showing an encouraging jump in power numbers from his junior year.
On the way to recording a .749 OBP, Jackson also set the national record for most hits in a season with 89 in forty games (Baseball America). The phenom's outstanding season earned him the Oklahoma Gatorade Player of the Year award and a full scholarship to Oklahoma State, following in the footsteps of his father.
Given the hype surrounding Holliday, he could very easily jump into contention for the number one pick overall. Even in the event that Baltimore passes on him, I have a hard time seeing this talent sliding out of the top four, and an even harder time envisioning a scenario where he ends up playing college ball. The gambling man in me thinks that Stillwater has seen the last of Jackson Holliday's performances for the foreseeable future.
Kevin Parada
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| Photo by Christopher Hanewinckel/USA Today |
With the first collegiate prospect on our list, we have Georgia Tech catcher Kevin Parada. Hailing from Los Angeles, Parada has shined through his two years at the Atlanta University, leading his team with a line of .318/9/42 and earning All-American honors as a freshman (Ramblin Wreck). This past season, those numbers ballooned to an even more impressive .361/26/88, earning him a finalist spot for the Golden Spikes Award (MLB.com).
A unique feature within Parada's insane college numbers is his unorthodox stance. The righty stands with a slight knee bend, holding his bat low and with the head facing downward along his back. Despite some of the obvious red flags to having such an unconventional batting stance, Kevin's track record of raking at the plate have left scouts confident in his ability for his talent to translate upward.
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| Photo from Ramblinwreck.com |
Kevin will be trying to carry on a proud tradition of catchers who have ascended to the MLB from Georgia Tech, joining the likes of Jason Varitek, Matt Wieters and Joey Bart, among others. He has shown some defensive weaknesses behind the plate, but with the Yellow Jacket's hitting ability and the new universal DH, there will always be a spot for him on a major league roster.
Cam Collier
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| Photo by Mike Janes/Four Seam Images |
From our first collegiate prospect to our only one from junior college, we have Cam Collier. Ranked as the third overall prospect for the 2023 draft, the son of former MLB pro Lou Collier reclassified to the class of 2022 this most recent August, got his GED and was off to Chipola JC. In 52 games at the JUCO, he slashed .333/8/47 for the Indians, playing primarily at third base (Chipola Athletics).
At 6'2" 210 and not even 18 yet, Collier has a ton of room to continue to grow. One unique feature of his game is that despite playing third base, the Georgia native actually bats lefty. At the plate, Cam rips line drives consistently and to all fields. With his bigger frame, there is power potential as well.
Defensively, most scouts agree that the former Louisville commit's arm should translate up to the professional level at the hot corner. The 17 year old's defensive instincts have been praised, but his large frame could necessitate a move to first base or outfield in the future (Baseball America). Collier's bat and youth provide ample intrigue though for scouts looking for a steal of a draft pick.
Brooks Lee
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| Photo by Kyle Calzia/Mustang News |
Named after legendary Oriole Brooks Robinson, the #5 prospect in this draft (per MLB Pipeline) Brooks Lee played his collegiate ball at Cal-Poly under the tutelage of his father, Larry. This will be the second time he will be drafted, also going in the 35th round of the 2019 draft to the San Francisco Giants.
The top prospect is fortunate to be still playing baseball after a serious leg injury in 2019. While running out a ground ball, Lee tore his LCL and biceps femoris hamstring muscle in an injury that doctors have rarely seen. After an initially grim prognosis, Brooks was able to work back to 100% in time for the following season (MLB.com).
"Without a question the best college hitter in the 2022 class," according to MLB Pipeline's writer Jonathan Mayo, Lee slashed a gaudy .357/15/55 line for the Mustangs in his sophomore season. He also recorded roughly a 2:1 BB:K ratio, suggesting plate discipline and maturity. His 2022 performances allowed him to repeat as the Big West Field Player of the Year and win the Brooks Wallace Award (Wikipedia). There are questions on the best position fit on the big league level for the 6'2", 205 lb. collegiate shortstop, but if he brings his collegiate bat up to the pros with him, teams will find a spot for him.
Brock Porter
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| Photo by Mike Mulholland/MLive.com |
The first pitcher on our list is high school arm Brock Porter. Playing his prep ball at Orchard Lake St. Mary's, the 6'4" righty went 9-0 in this most recent season at the Michigan school, posting an ERA of 0.36 with 115 strikeouts and allowing just nine hits in 58.2 innings (MaxPreps). He was quite simply unhittable for the competition.
A fastball consistently in the mid-upper 90's was Brock's go-to pitch for much of the year, even touching 100 on a few occasions. His lankier frame should allow the 19 year old to sustain even higher velocity as he matures. With an elite changeup and a curveball that falls off the table, Michigan's top high school player has three plus pitches in his repertoire (Perfect Game).
Currently committed to play at Clemson University, Porter is almost a lock to be the first pitcher selected. Due to some of the high end hitting talent at the top of the class, I don't foresee him cracking the top five, but it would be truly a surprise if this electric talent was still available outside of the top twelve. With no shortage of arm talent, Brock Porter's rise through the minors should be an entertaining one to watch.
Jace Jung
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| Photo by Zac BonDurant/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images |
Texas Tech second baseman Jace Jung, brother of professional Josh, seems to be as surefire a hitter in this draft as any. After playing sparingly through a shortened 2020 season, Jace went off as a redshirt freshman, slashing a line of .337/21/67, winning the Big XII player of the year and earning an All-American nod (Texastech.com). He also showed good plate discipline and the ability to play every infield position.
Jung's 2022 campaign lived up to the hype his previous season created. His line of .335/14/57 showed some dips in power and production, but fails to give credit to his decreased strikeout and increased walk totals in 31 more plate appearances (Baseball Reference). Deficiencies in his defensive game, arm strength and overall speed have always been made up for with his work at the plate.
In the discussion for best hitter in this class, which is higher praise this year than usual, Jace will easily be a fringe top ten pick. The selection will force whatever team chooses him to do some experimenting in the minors to find what position he fits best before ascending to the major league level. With the universal DH and trust in the Red Raider's bat, he will undoubtedly be afforded a long audition.
Brandon Barriera
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| Photo by MLBPipeline/ Twitter |
The last of our top ten is rounded out by pitcher Brandon Barriera. Playing his high school ball in Florida, the lefty is one of the smaller prospects on our list, only holding 170 lbs. on a 6'1" frame. Scouts are banking on him filling out in the future, as Barriera has shown some really promising tools.
Brandon's pitching arsenal features a fastball in the mid 90's with great sinking action. A sharply breaking slider and changeup are also plus pitches for the Vanderbilt commit (Perfect Game). There's a ton of upside to the kid's game.
Unfortunately, there isn't a ton of tape out there on Barriera at the moment. The COVID pandemic shortened his 2020 season and he only threw for 16 scoreless innings the following year. During his senior campaign at American Heritage Plantation, the southpaw started eight games before ending his season to prepare for the draft, going 5-0 and averaging just under two strikeouts per inning (Broward). Some teams may be more partial to a prospect with a longer track record of success, like Brock Porter, but there are plenty who will see a future ace here.
Sleepers:
Connor Prielipp: The 6'2" lefty from the University of Alabama had a rough go during his collegiate tenure. Across his freshman and sophomore seasons, Prielipp started 4-0, not giving up a run until his 27th inning of work. There was talk building in some sectors about him being the first pick overall pick. Then Tommy John surgery...
While Connor has put in the work to get rehabbed back to full health, he did not play in the 2022 season and some scouts have concerns he will not have the same velocity as prior to the surgery. However, others are willing to compromise with this dip in velocity because of his electric slider, the best pitch in the draft according to some (Prime Sports Talk). If Prielipp is able to return to 100% physically, there's a chance a team in the late first round ends up leaving this draft with the best pitcher.
Jackson Ferris: Our second IMG Academy player on this list, Elijah Green's high school teammate Jackson Ferris is a very interesting left-handed pitching prospect. The eighteen year old is huge for his age (6'4" 190) and has the juice behind his pitches to back it up. He throws his fastball with confidence, usually sitting between 94-96. He'll need to continue to develop his curveball and changeup, but there have been encouraging flashes of them so far (Perfect Game)
Committed to the University of Mississippi, Ferris posted a cumulative high school stat line featuring a 16-0 record, 0.80 ERA, 1.8 strikeouts per inning and a perfect game (Max Preps). There is still a good bit of rawness to his game, but whoever selects Jackson could be tapping into a real gem.
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| Photo by Cory Smith/Mt. Airy News |
Cayden Wallace: Arkansas University's Cayden Wallace seems to be universally considered a fringe first round pick. Despite playing 80% of last season in right field, Wallace projects to the big leagues as a third baseman. His strikeouts are a little high and his collegiate batting average of .289 doesn't jump off the paper either (Baseball Reference). His positional flexibility, a nearly flawless track record with the glove and power projections are all exciting tools for scouts and teams to consider in the late first/early second with a player like this Razorback.
Kumar Rocker is also a name shooting up some draft boards. The #10 pick from last year's draft has shown good velocity in his independent ball showings and could end up being a top end talent for a team later in the first round.
So there's a peek at some of our favorite guys here in this upcoming MLB draft. Keep an eye on where they go this Sunday and be sure to check out your local minor league venues to try and catch them before they reach the big show. This stacked draft of hitters with some intriguing options at pitcher should provide some fun storylines for baseball fans to track in the coming years.
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@Choppinglines
*I own no rights to any images found in this blog
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