There's constantly pressure to perform for all players in the NFL. Between young guys trying to earn a second contract or veterans trying to hold on for another payday or relevance, the need to deliver results on the field is always urgent. Despite this universal stress to produce, there are some players and situations that carry a bit more weight when compared to their peers. We'll examine some of these make or break scenarios below, as well as the context surrounding them:
Do or Die Seasons (With their Current Team):
Tua Tagovailoa
After showing poise and professionalism toward the Dolphins through a year and a half of rumors connecting the team to Deshaun Watson, they rewarded the left-handed signal caller this offseason with a number of helpful pieces. It took a bounty of five draft picks to acquire All-Pro receiver Tyreek Hill in a blockbuster trade with Kansas City. Miami inked Terron Armstead as a marquee free agent acquisition to improve the worst offensive line in the league from 2021 (Per PFF). The signings of Chase Edmonds and Raheem Mostert also can't hurt a backfield that produced the third lowest rushing yards last season.
Tua was inconsistent last year, playing in just 13 out of 17 games, averaging just over 204 YPG and throwing 16 TD/10 INT. He ranked 18th in qualified quarterbacks with QBR of 49.7 (ESPN.com). Some of this inconsistency can undoubtedly be attributed to his terrible offensive line and non-existent rushing attack, but Tagovailoa was not innocent of blame. With the postseason on the line, he completely laid an egg on the road last season in week 17 at Tennessee, going 18/38 for 205 yards with two turnovers in a 34-3 loss. Miami finished at 9-8, just narrowly missing the playoffs.
Now that the team has bolstered the offense in all three areas, the third year QB from Alabama has no excuse for losses or underachieving statistically. I'm personally not sold on Tua being a franchise quarterback and believe this is a make or break season for him playing in South Florida. Additional free agent signing Teddy Bridgewater is an upgrade from Jacoby Brissett, albeit not by much, and I could see Miami fans clamoring to see him at the helm of this offense if Tua is not playing up to their expectations early. It'll be interesting to see if he'll be able to utilize Tyreek's deep threat ability.
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| Photo by Mike Brown- Getty Images |
Jalen Hurts
From Tua to the man who he beat out for the job at Alabama, Jalen Hurts. The 3rd year quarterback, drafted from Oklahoma, is entering his second season as the undisputed starter for the Philadelphia Eagles. Philly helped out their QB this offseason by signing WR Zach Pascal. Oh, and by shocking the world with a draft night trade for receiver AJ Brown, who signed a 4/$100 million contract right after the transaction.
Hurts has two years left on his rookie contract, but it feels like this is the moment he needs to excel in order to keep his job. After sneaking Philadelphia into the playoffs, aided by playing in a really bad division, they got destroyed by Tampa Bay, trailing 31-0 before two garbage touchdowns in the 4th quarter. The Eagles managed six punts, two interceptions and a turnover on downs prior to scoring their first points. The game highlighted the concerns many had with Hurts as a passer in this league.
Jalen has been able to enjoy an offseason of continuity as the starter with the same playbook under Shane Steichen and head coach Nick Sirianni. The two additions at receiver, plus Dallas Goedert and another pro offseason of work for Devonta Smith give this offense incredible explosive potential. They will only go as far as Jalen Hurts can take them though in this quarterback driven league, and given the limited patience in Philadelphia, I would predict them trying to move on from the QB if his performance this season falls short.
Derek Carr
I know that the "Derek Carr era is coming to an end" crowd has been chirping forever now, but I think this year is quite possibly the last step in the road. At a glance, Carr is locked in for the Las Vegas Raiders after signing a three-year extension last season, worth approximately $40 million dollars per season. In the fine print however, the team has an opt out after this season that would only cost them about $5.6 million dollars to execute. Therefore, if Josh McDaniels and the staff aren't sold on the Fresno State alumni being their quarterback of the future, they have an easy out in place for themselves.
After trading a 2022 first and second pick for Davante Adams, Carr has the best receiving weapon of his career. The trio of Adams-Renfrow-Waller will surely be a troublesome one for many a defensive coordinator to game plan for. The Raiders also signed Chandler Jones and Anthony Averett to help Maxx Crosby, Nate Hobbs and the 26th ranked Las Vegas defense to shut the door late in games.
Derek will be 32 after next season, meaning he still likely has a few quality years left in the league. I have a hard time seeing any of those years being in Las Vegas though if he does not make some sort of playoff run for this team in 2022-2023. Despite solid seasons for the Raiders, Carr-led always seem to fall short in the most critical moments of the most critical games. If he wants to reverse that narrative about himself, at least while wearing the silver and black, this season may be his final opportunity.
Michael Thomas
One of the more odd storylines from last season revolved around the ankle of Saints' receiver Michael Thomas. Many a fantasy owner, as well as the entire New Orleans organization, anxiously awaited updates on the mysterious, lingering injury, which ultimately sidelined the former Buckeye wideout for a second consecutive season. This led to some contention between the franchise and their receiver regarding a lack of communication, and also doomed the team to arguably the worst receiving core in the league. The group of pass catchers, led by all-world talents Marquez Callaway and Deonte Harris, predictably did no favors for the three quarterbacks the Saints had to start last season.
The Saints addressed this weakness proactively in the draft, trading up to the 11th pick to select another Ohio State receiver in Chris Olave. The smooth route runner has the ability to immediately step in as Jameis Winston's #1 receiver, adding some additional pressure to Thomas in his hopeful return.
Entering his 8th season, Thomas has three years left on his contract. The duo of him and Olave has potential to be as tantalizing and dynamic a partnership as any in the league, but there are still a ton of question marks surrounding the former as he prepares for the '22-23 tilt. Coach Dennis Allen was quoted May 6th on The Rich Eisen Show saying, "There's still a few hurdles that we've got to climb, with any of our guys that had any injuries they're trying to get back from," (ProFootballTalkNBC). After a two-year hiatus, reports suggesting that #13 is still dealing with hurdles in the rehab process are pretty concerning. Given the $28/27 million dollar price tags Michael will carry after this season, and the current league-wide trend of paying big to acquire stud receivers, it would be prudent for New Orleans to consider shopping around their All-Pro if they have any question marks or concerns following his performance this season.
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| Photo by Wesley Hitt- Getty Images |
Do or Die (For Their Starting Careers):
Drew Lock
Just two seasons ago, the raw, strong-armed rookie signal caller went viral "putting on for his city". Amidst a fourth win in five games to close out the season as the Denver starting quarterback, all signs seemed to be pointing in a positive direction for the Mizzou alumni. Then a disastrous 2020 year, highlighted by a 16:15 TD:INT ratio and dismal 41.5 QBR.
The Broncos brought in Teddy Bridgewater to compete with Lock after the 20-21 season, in what many hoped would push the kid to greater things. Unfortunately, the signing amounted to no real competition, as Bridgewater firmly seized control of the starting job and only released that grip when injuries forced him to. Lock was thoroughly disappointing through the season failing to even challenge a lackluster Bridgewater for the starting position. When given the opportunity late in the season to display his growth, he went 0-3, passing for 186 YPG.
Denver was able to ship Lock to Seattle as a part of the NFL blockbuster trade of the summer, which netted Russell Wilson for the Mile High City. With only Geno Smith to compete with, this is absolutely Drew's last opportunity to show himself as a starter in this league. With weapons like DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, he certainly has a talented supporting cast to maximize the big arm he was so touted for in college. The flip side of this opportunity though is that if Lock plays terribly or does not earn the starting spot, he may be hard pressed to be viewed even as a backup at the conclusion of his rookie contract.
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| Photo Credit- Twitter |
Marcus Mariota
After three years of suffering through starting quarterbacks Jake Locker, Zach Mettenberger and Charlie Whitehurst (among others), the Tennessee Titans were ecstatic to land the #2 pick in a notoriously thin 2015 NFL draft. When they selected the 21-year old Heisman-winning Marcus Mariota with that selection, the hope around Nashville was that the franchise-quarterback void was filled for the next fifteen years.
The wishes of the Tennessee faithful were not answered by Mariota, who was benched after a 2-4 start to his fifth season for Ryan Tannehill. Throwing 76 TD's compared to 44 interceptions was indicative of the inconsistent and unspectacular play that the Oregon Duck had been known for during his time as a Titan. Add in 5 lost fumbles and a QBR that never got above 60, and it is clear to see why he was released when his rookie contract expired.
As an unrestricted free agent in 2020, Marcus elected to sign as a backup for the Raiders. Signing behind a supremely entrenched starter like Derek Carr sent a message to the league that even Mariota was aware of the work he needed to put in to ascend back to starting status. Reports from Las Vegas were that he was a consummate professional during his two years with the team, and the film showed he was still able to flash some of the athleticism he was known for in his few game opportunities.
This offseason, the former Heisman winner signed with the Atlanta Falcons, reuniting with coach Arthur Smith, his final offensive coordinator in Tennessee. He'll have what I assume to be his last legitimate attempt to be a starting quarterback in the NFL. With only Desmond Ridder to compete with, a talent like Mariota should easily be able to buy the rookie QB a year to acclimate. Failure to do so by Marcus will surely be the final nail in the coffin of an overall disappointment of an NFL career.
Mitchell Trubisky
Also known as Mister Biscuit around the Chopping Lines office, this 2022-2023 season is absolutely critical for the trajectory of the rest of Trubisky's career. The former 2nd overall pick out of North Carolina began his career strong for the Chicago Bears, leading them to the playoffs in his first full season as a starter. The Bears suffered a terrible defeat at the hands of the Philadelphia Eagles, thanks to Cody Parkey and the infamous double-doink.
Since that 2018 heartbreaking playoff exit, Trubisky endured a season of musical chairs with Nick Foles, thanks to inconsistent play and some unconventional coaching methodology by the since-fired Matt Nagy. Chicago chose not to pick up the quarterback's 5th year option after the 2020 season, allowing him to become an unrestricted free agent.
From there, the former Tar Heel elected to sign a one-year deal with Buffalo. Similar to Mariota, signing behind a non-negotiable starter allowed Mitch a pressure-free campaign to refine the skills that earned him a Pro Bowl nod in 2018. Strong preseason performances and ringing endorsements from the Bills' staff followed Trubisky into his next free agency, where he signed a two-year deal with the Pittsburgh Steelers in an attempt to fill the shoes of retired QB Ben Roethlisberger.
The situation in Pittsburgh seemed to be an ideal rebound for the quarterback entering his 6th season, with the team featuring two solid young receivers in Chase Claypool and Diontae Johnson and a workhorse running back Najee Harris. Then with the 20th overall selection in the 2022 draft, the Steelers selected quarterback Kenny Pickett from the University of Pittsburgh. If Trubisky is going to prove his worth as a starter in the NFL, he undeniably has win and keep the position this year. If he's able to do that, I would imagine the Pittsburgh trying to flip him for picks in an offseason or two when Pickett has shown he's ready to step into the starting role. However, if we see Mitchell holding the clipboard come week one this year, I'd expect him to be doing just that for the remainder of his career.
Josh Jacobs
The 2019 draft for the then Oakland Raiders radiated with optimism. The first year coach-GM tandem of Gruden and Mayock carried themselves with an arrogance that they knew something everyone else didn't, on top of three first round picks to boost an already competitive roster. Fast forward three years and both the coach and GM are out of the NFL, and their top three choices all had their 5th year options declined. Whiff.
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| Photo by Troy Hughes- Twitter |
Of those three first-rounders, running back Josh Jacobs actually has had the most success on the field. Unfortunately, that bar isn't set very high. His rookie year was by far his most productive, rushing for 1,150 yards on 4.8 yards per carry in only 13 games (ESPN). In the two years since then, the Alabama halfback has dropped to under 4 YPC and simply lacks the explosiveness he came into the league with. Averaging over 1,000 yards per season is still a milestone in the current pass-happy NFL, but the way the 24th pick of the 2019 draft has managed to do this has been completely lackluster.
With Jacobs' 5th year option being declined and the buzz surrounding shifty rookie running back Zamir White, this season has become very much a live audition for his next contract. Despite some productivity, Josh's career has failed to live up to his first round status thus far. He'll still only be 24 years old at the end of the year, so youth is on his side more then many other 4th year players. But adding another disappointing season on his resume would likely relegate Jacobs to a backup role for the remainder of his career.
Legacy Seasons: Unlike the sections above, the players in this section either have an established legacy they can take to the next level with another great season, or lay a true foundation for a legacy, facing no competition for their current positions during the 2022-2023 season. These players will often have exorbitant contracts or previously gaudy numbers to play up to
Aaron Rodgers
The immunized one had quite an offseason in Green Bay- from being named Most Valuable Player, to rumors of a trade to Denver, the signing of an obscene 3-year, $150 million dollar extension, and wrapping it up with the trading his best friend/weapon Davante Adams to the Raiders. A lot to keep track of for anyone.
In reality, the former Super Bowl champion and 4-time MVP has virtually nothing left to prove in his career, as he is already an undisputed hall of famer. This is a big season though for him to display the magnitude of his greatness. Davante Adams had 1,553 receiving yards last season. The rest of the Packers WR's had 1,435 yards combined. Chemistry and production like Rodgers had with Adams will be very difficult to replicate, especially with Sammy Watkins and rookie Christian Watson as the primary reinforcements.
If Aaron is able to recreate any semblance of his previous two MVP seasons this year, it will be a true testament to his talent. Quarterbacks who ascend to levels of all-time greatness are able to elevate, not rely on, the play of their receivers during their ascension. It is undeniable that #12 has been able to do this up until this point in his career, but between Father Time and possibly his weakest receiving core ever, Rodgers will have an uphill battle strengthening his legacy this season.
Davis Mills
With the most apparent outlier on this list, we have Davis Mills. The second year Texans quarterback had an incredibly unique rookie season, drafted into a third-string role on a team with a ton of question marks at quarterback- thanks to Deshaun Watson's massage saga- and ending as the undisputed starter. Mills was able to succeed among the chaos and earn another opportunity at the helm for Houston, finishing his rookie season with 2,664 yards and 16 touchdowns in 13 games. Despite posting the 26th rated QBR of 35.5, the Stanford product showed marked improvement as the '21-22 season progressed, having two of his best performances in the final three weeks.
This strong finish paired with a weak quarterback class led Houston to feel comfortable going into next year with him under center. Upgrades to the offensive line, resigning of top wideout Brandin Cooks and adding receiver John Metchie III in the draft are all signs of at least some level of organizational trust moving forward with Mills as signal caller. With no projected QB competition this training camp and a full offseason of work with Pep Hamilton, Davis will have nobody to blame but himself if he is unable to take hold on this starting job moving forward.
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| Photo by Bob Levey- Getty Images |
Christian McCaffery
Our second Stanford-alumni in a row here, whose storyline mirrors one we've seen far too often with elite running backs. Christian McCaffery averaged an absurd 2,178 all-purpose yards per season during the 2018 and 2019 campaigns (ESPN), shooting him to the top of fantasy draft boards universally. The last two seasons, due to injury and poor quarterback play, have only netted the running back a total of 1,159 all-purpose yards.
There were reports of teams inquiring on McCaffery's trade value last season, which Carolina promptly shot down. But another year older and another year stuck with Sam Darnold at QB does not bode well for his prospects. Given all of the Panthers' needs as a team, it would be at least worth considering dealing the two-time All-Pro for the right price- if he is able to stay healthy during the beginning of the year. However, if the injury bug continues for Christian in Carolina, his legacy would likely go down as one of the great flash-in-a-pan RB's, instead of an all-timer.
Von Miller
Wrapping up the article with our first defensive player, recent Super Bowl champion Von Miller got himself a bag this offseason from the Buffalo Bills. Six years and $120 million dollars for a 32-year old edge rusher was an unprecedented contract, even with a potential out after the third season. Miller posted 8 sacks in 2019, but missed the entire 2020 season with an ankle injury, which was the longest stretch of time he'd been on the shelf during his career. He bounced back with 9.5 sacks last year, splitting time with the Broncos and Rams, and added a dominant stretch during the Rams run to the title, recording 4 sacks and looking like his old self.
The Bills now hope that Miller can sustain that playoff form over the next couple of seasons. He'll experience a slight downgrade in his supporting cast, going from Aaron Donald and Leonard Floyd to Ed Oliver and AJ Epenesa, which will put more on the shoulders of the 12th year vet. If he is able to excel with less help, Von will easily find himself in the top twenty for all-time sacks in the NFL. He currently has 115, just seven behind Simeon Rice for the 20th spot (ESPN).
Failure to perform would be a huge financial burden for Buffalo until they could move on from Miller's contract. It also could leave him surprisingly far down the list of all-time sack leaders. The former Aggie needs 23 sacks to jump into the top 10, which is not an unreasonable expectation over the next 2-3 seasons, especially when you assume many teams will be needing to throw to keep up with Josh Allen's offense. These next few years will really statistically support whether Von Miller is a true top-ten edge rusher ever or simply a dominant force within his era.
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@Choppinglines
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